Guoman IP is full of wind! "Little Tiger Pier Hero" exposed a special video


1905 movie network news The Spring Festival animated film will be officially released on the first day of the Year of the Tiger. On January 4th, the film released a special video of "Tiger Tiger Born Wind" to reveal the film creation process.

 

"The Great Hero of Xiaohudun" tells the story of Xiaohudun’s adventurous growth in pursuit of the dream of an escort in his heart. The newly released special video "Tiger" is full of flavor, and Xiao Hudun, wearing a tiger’s head hat, expounds the creative process. Although the main creative team of the film is not necessarily the best in the industry in terms of number of people and equipment, its attitude of cultivating animation talents in China and creating fine animation in China is firm.

In addition, exaggerated brainwashing explanations such as "A masterpiece was produced only in one hundred million years" are full of joy and magic, and Xiaohudun also made a fuss at the end of the video, saying "I don’t want to bite you", which makes people smile, and it is more like making a promise of "watching the Tiger Pier in the Year of the Tiger".

 

The creative team behind "Little Tiger Pier Hero" is determined to create an original national IP and make China’s animated image famous in the world. Little Tiger Pier, which is popular in short videos, comics, theme parks, derivatives and movies, is one of the representatives.

It is reported that when the main creator created the image of the Tiger Pier, he closely followed the words "Meng, Meng, Meng and Meng". "Meng" refers to Xiao Hudun’s personality is a bit stupid, and occasionally he will do ridiculous stupid things. "Meng" means cute and super cute. "Fierce" means that Xiaohudun is brave and courageous, with a fearless momentum. "Dream" is his dream of becoming an escort and returning his parents as soon as possible. Nowadays, Xiaohudun, which has tens of millions of fans on the whole network, is about to make its debut on the big screen. I believe that the cute image of Xiaohudun will be more and more deeply rooted in people’s hearts when the Year of the Tiger comes, adding a little joy and celebration to the Spring Festival.


Forty Years of Reform and Opening-up-Zhang Jun: Reform in the Age of Passion.

The Paper Liu Zhengtu

Today, I want to share with you some reform stories that happened from the late 1970s to the mid-1990s. I called it the age of passion and romance. Many important reforms took place in that era. Although I personally experienced that era, I didn’t participate in much discussion about reform, especially in the 1980s. But ten years ago, in order to commemorate the 30th anniversary of reform and opening-up, I spent my summer vacation in Canada and wrote a book, from which I sorted out a lot of materials of that era and found it really wonderful. Today, with memories and some precious pictures, let’s walk into that passionate time and see how many important reforms started and how they were promoted.

I have always said that in the past 40 years, the most romantic and wonderful chapter of reform took place in the 1980s. Many economists tend to regard 1993 as a watershed in China’s reform and opening up. In November 1993, we convened the Third Plenary Session of the 14th CPC Central Committee, and adopted a decision on establishing a socialist market economic system. Because of this decision, the reform before and after 1993 was very different in style, and the reform after that was accelerated. In a few short years from 1994 to the end of 1990s, the major reforms needed to build a socialist market economic system have been basically completed. Most of the subsequent reforms are secondary or technical. It can probably be said that the decisive reform was completed when the old man Deng Xiaoping was alive.

Then, I’ll start from 1994.

1994 Jinglun Conference: Establishing Modern Company System

Professor Oliver hart, a famous American economist.

First, let me show you a photo, Professor Oliver hart. He is the winner of the 2016 Nobel Prize in Economics, a professor of economics at Harvard University in the United States, and once served as the head of the Department of Economics at Harvard University. He came to China in 1994 and attended an important meeting-Jinglun Meeting.

Jinglun Hotel, a famous Japanese hotel next to Beijing International Trade Center.

At that time, many famous economists attended the 1994 Beijing-Lund Conference. Oliver hart was one of them, including two other Nobel Prize winners in economics at the University of Chicago.

In 1994, the Jinglun Conference was held.

On August 23-26, 1994, the State Economic and Trade Commission and the research group of "Overall Design of China’s Economic System Reform" and "Comprehensive Analysis and Reform Design of China’s Tax System and Public Finance" jointly held an international seminar on "The Next Reform of China’s Economic System" in Beijing Jinglun Hotel. Some people think that it initiated the spread of the latest development of microeconomics in China, and introduced the reform into the deep research of microeconomic foundation, which is called "Jinglun Conference".

Along with Oliver hart, he came to China to attend the Jinglun Conference, and a very famous professor was Professor Aoki Masahiko.

Professor Aoki Masahiko, a famous Japanese economist, passed away in 2015 and was a professor of economics at Stanford University.

The "Jinglun Meeting" was actually discussing how to reform the state-owned enterprises in China, and when the meeting was held, the state-owned enterprises were facing a huge challenge-the debt problem. At that time, the debt problem of state-owned enterprises was the most puzzling problem for their development.

The topics of the meeting mainly include, how to reorganize state-owned enterprises? How to restructure the debts of state-owned enterprises? How to reorganize state-owned enterprises? At the "Jinglun Conference", Professor Oliver hart and Professor Aoki Masahiko made many valuable analyses and suggestions in these aspects.

Professor Oliver hart is a scholar who studies enterprise contracts, so he has a lot of ideas about it, and these ideas have actually influenced the reform of state-owned enterprises in China. In the later period, our methods of restructuring state-owned enterprises and restructuring the debts of state-owned enterprises, including the establishment of four state-owned asset management companies to solve the debt problems of state-owned enterprises, were all influenced by the topics discussed at the "Beijing-Lun Meeting".

Professor Aoki Masahiko put forward a very important concept at the Jinglun Conference: Insider Control)[ Editor’s Note: Insider control refers to the phenomenon that the operator controls the company under the premise of the separation of ownership and management right (control right) in modern enterprises, which is caused by the inconsistency of interests between the owner and the operator]. This concept has a great influence on our domestic economists. State-owned enterprises are prone to the phenomenon of "insider control". In other words, outsiders can’t help them solve the problem of "insider control", so state-owned enterprises must be reorganized. Including many of our current concepts on the reform of state-owned enterprises, such as "establishing a modern enterprise system" and "establishing current corporate governance", did not exist before 1994. It was not until the "Beijing-Lund Conference" that the decision on the reform and reorganization of state-owned enterprises became a consensus idea of change, and it was written into the relevant important documents of the central government many times.

The "Jinglun Meeting" was held to implement the spirit of the decision of the Third Plenary Session of the 14th Central Committee on establishing a socialist market economic system, because in this decision, changing the operating mechanism of state-owned enterprises and establishing a governance mode that is compatible with the market economy became the core issue.

The Third Plenary Session of the 14th CPC Central Committee was held in November 1993, which was the first time that the concept of "market economy" was clearly put forward after the reform in 1978. It has been 15 years since the Third Plenary Session of the 11th CPC Central Committee in 1978. The decision of the Third Plenary Session of the Twelfth Central Committee of the Communist Party of China in 1984 only mentioned "commodity economy" and failed to put forward "market economy". Although we say that the reform and opening up began in 1978, in fact, the Third Plenary Session of the 14th Central Committee in 1993 first proposed to establish a socialist market economy.

For our reform in the past 40 years, the Third Plenary Session of the 14th CPC Central Committee was a watershed. Because we admit that the purpose of our reform is to establish a socialist market economy, the reform has been accelerated after that. I have generally reviewed that in the four to five years after 1994, we have basically finalized the important reforms needed to establish a market economy system, such as fiscal tax-sharing reform, price liberalization, urban housing system reform, the introduction of commercial banking law, the merger reform of foreign exchange system and exchange rate, the strategic restructuring of state-owned economy and corporate governance reform in 1995, and the "grasping the big and letting the small" of state-owned enterprises in 1997.

In the past, we always said that China’s economic reform was gradual, crossing the river by feeling the stones and taking two steps back, but after the Third Plenary Session of the 14th CPC Central Committee in 1993, China’s economic reform became quite radical.

Deng Xiaoping’s speech in South China in 1992: China’s reform suddenly accelerated.

Before the Third Plenary Session of the 14th CPC Central Committee in 1993, there were controversies and differences on the ideological and theoretical levels in all aspects of reform. There are not only arguments between ideological circles and intellectuals and economists, but also arguments and differences of opinion within the party. It is the checks and balances produced by these open and closed debates that make the reform in the 1980s relatively cautious and slow.

However, in the 1990s, especially after Deng Xiaoping delivered a speech on the South in 1992, the ideological and political environment within the Party changed, and these arguments and differences still exist, but the reform has been ahead of the arguments. This is attributed to Mr. Deng Xiaoping’s "Southern Speech" in 1992, which promoted the market-oriented reform, and he did not advocate endless arguments, because that would delay the timing of reform. Deng Xiaoping once said during his southern tour in 1992 that "it is my invention not to argue".

The textbook The Chinese Economy, published by Professor Barry Norton of the University of California, San Diego, also tells the process and stages of China’s economic system reform. There is a similar statement in his book. He thinks that after 1993 and 1994, the process of reform in China suddenly accelerated.

This is obviously that the word "market economy" has opened the door for reform. At the Third Plenary Session of the 14th CPC Central Committee, the words "building a socialist market economy" were written into the decision, and Deng Xiaoping’s talk in the south played a very important role in promoting it.

Deng Xiaoping was in Wuchang, Shenzhen, Zhuhai and Shanghai from January 18 to 21, 1992.

Deng Xiaoping felt that his thoughts should be more emancipated and the pace of reform should be greater. Deng Xiaoping’s southern speech declared to the world: We should be more open, our reform will not go backwards, and our reform pace will only be faster. "

1990 Chinese New Year in Deng Xiaoping and Shanghai: Pudong will catch up later.

Deng Xiaoping came to Shanghai for the Spring Festival for five consecutive years from 1988 to 1992. I didn’t come in 1993, but I came to Shanghai for the Spring Festival in 1994. After 1994, he did not appear in public until his death in 1997.

During the Spring Festival in 1990, Deng Xiaoping told the leaders of Zhu Rongji and other cities that I made a mistake. At that time, Shanghai was not added to the four special zones. Shanghai is our trump card. It can be seen that Deng Xiaoping speaks highly of Shanghai and Shanghainese. He thinks that the development of Pudong in Shanghai is a bit late, but he also says that Shanghainese are smart and can certainly catch up. This was a conversation with Zhu Rongji at the end of January, 1990. After the Spring Festival, he returned to Beijing and told the central leaders that although I am retired now, I have one thing to ask you, that is, the development of Shanghai Pudong.

Under the impetus of Deng Xiaoping, the Central Committee immediately held a meeting on April 10th, 1990, and adopted a decision on the development of Pudong. On April 18th, 1990, then Premier Li Peng came to Shanghai to announce the development of Pudong.

Facts have proved that although the development of Pudong is later than that of the four special zones, after 28 years of development, Pudong has achieved great development achievements and achieved great success. The GDP of Pudong was 6 billion 28 years ago, and now it is 1 trillion. Shanghai’s GDP3 is 3 trillion, and Pudong accounts for 1/3.

In 1991, Deng Xiaoping came to Shanghai for the New Year. He said to the leaders at that time: "It is both a bad thing and a good thing to develop late. You can learn from the experience of Guangdong. " It can be seen that he has always been very concerned about Pudong.

The conception of special economic zones in 1979: a chain reaction triggered by an investigation report

Four special zones in Guangdong and Fujian were developed earlier than Pudong. However, Shekou in Shenzhen was developed earlier than Shenzhen Special Economic Zone.

In April, 1978, the Ministry of Foreign Trade and the State Planning Commission sent a delegation to Hong Kong and Macao. After returning, the delegation wrote a report, which suggested that we should dock with Hong Kong and Macao in two places near Hong Kong and Macao and try to do some export processing business. At that time, I chose two places: Zhuhai near Macau and Baoan County near Hong Kong, which is now Shenzhen. Later, this report was distributed to all the participants at the Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee as a meeting material. This report is very important, and it is this report that triggered the idea of Shekou Industrial Zone and later Special Economic Zone.

Comments on Li Xiannian’s Investigation Report to Hong Kong and Macao.

Reading the biography of Yuan Geng (editor’s note: former Party Secretary of Shekou Industrial Zone), we can see his ups and downs life. Kang Sheng persecuted him and went to prison, but after he came out, he arranged a job in Hongkong’s China Merchants Bureau through Ye Fei’s relationship. When Yuan Geng died a few years ago, someone commented on him: "Without Yuan Geng, there would be no Shenzhen now." In fact, Yuan Geng is an advocate of Shekou Industrial Development Zone. At that time, he advocated the establishment of Shekou Industrial Development Zone, which was stimulated by the investigation report of Hong Kong and Macao. At that time, he said, "Why can’t we build a freight terminal in Shekou? He calculated the cost of the industrial zone. He said that the cost of Shekou is very different from that of Hong Kong. If there is a Shekou industrial zone, goods from Hong Kong can be placed at the dock in Shekou, because the rent in Shekou is relatively low.

Cover of Yuan Geng’s memoirs

Under his active promotion, Guangdong established Shekou Industrial Zone near Hong Kong. Shekou Industrial Zone is earlier than Shenzhen, Shenzhen Special Zone was formally established in 1980, and Shekou Industrial Zone was established in 1979.

The economic investigation report of Hong Kong and Macao actually triggered a series of events: Yuan Geng proposed the establishment of Shekou Industrial Zone, and Guangdong Provincial Party Committee Secretaries Xi Zhongxun and Wu Nansheng (Editor’s Note: Wu Nansheng, the first Party Secretary of Shenzhen Special Economic Zone) proposed to the central authorities to establish an export processing zone in Shantou (at first, their idea was to establish an export processing zone in Shantou. Why are you in Shantou? They quoted the classics as saying that Engels mentioned Shantou in his book. At the same time, Fujian also proposed to establish a special economic zone.

As a result of discussion in the Central Committee, everyone agreed in principle to establish a special zone. The key issues are the size of the special zone and the name of the area.

What’s the name of the special zone? At first, it was called export processing zone. Some people objected that "Taiwan Province has export processing zones, but we can’t have them." Finally, let Deng Xiaoping decide. Deng Xiaoping said: It can be called a special zone, and Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia is a special zone.

What is the area of the special zone? More than 300 square kilometers? The SAR Office of Guangdong Province thinks that this area is too large, and metaphorically says that "the special zones in the world are not as big as more than 300 square kilometers". Some people object: "This special zone is too big. Do you want a bigger special zone than the Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia Special Zone?" Some people even said, "It’s boundless." The sentence "infinitely big" was very serious at that time. It can be seen that many people are opposed to the establishment of a special zone with such a large area. In the end, the Central Committee decided to build a special zone, which is called a special economic zone, on the advice of Deng Xiaoping, and the Shenzhen Special Zone covers an area of 327 square kilometers.

In 1979, the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone was not established, but there was a local special economic zone regulation in Guangdong Province-Guangdong Special Economic Zone Regulation. After Guangdong reported to the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress passed this regulation on August 26th, 1980, which was the first local regulation in China history to be discussed and passed in the National People’s Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC). This historic regulation was aimed at the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone. So August 26th is the day when Shenzhen was founded, and it is also the day when Shenzhen Special Economic Zone was founded.

However, since its inception, Shenzhen has been facing the debate of "whether it is surnamed Zi or surnamed She".

The establishment of the special zone in 1980 was aimed at introducing foreign capital, so it would certainly lead to an ideological debate at that time. The practice of establishing the special zone would definitely conflict with the Marxist classical writers and the ideology of our ancestors, so we kept arguing.

In the situation that Shenzhen has just been established for one year, the central government has been somewhat shaken, including the top management, and proposed to make some adjustments in policies. At that time, Wu Nansheng, as the party secretary of Shenzhen, was under great pressure. In 1982 and 1983, there was a big discussion about Shenzhen in China. This discussion is very intense in the ideological circle and within the party. At that time, many people said, "Can you still see the shadow of socialism when you go to Shenzhen?" So at this time, it is even more necessary for Deng Xiaoping to really stand up and endorse Shenzhen, otherwise Shenzhen will face the risk of being shut down.

In January 1984, Deng Xiaoping visited Shenzhen and wrote the famous sentence: The development and experience of Shenzhen proved that our policy of establishing special economic zones was correct.

On January 26, 1984, Deng Xiaoping wrote an inscription for Shenzhen Special Economic Zone: "The development and experience of Shenzhen prove that our policy of establishing special economic zones is correct."

But in February 1985, Hong Kong’s Wide Angle Mirror magazine published an article by a young scholar, Chen Wenhong, "What’s the problem in Shenzhen? 》。 Chen Wenhong visited Shenzhen in 1985, that is, five years after the establishment of Shenzhen Special Economic Zone. He found that in fact, Shenzhen attracted not much foreign investment, but all the mainland capital, and all the mainland provinces had a lot of hot money in Shenzhen. He also calculated that the per capita purchasing power of Shenzhen was several times higher than that of Shanghai and Beijing to prove it.

Because everyone thinks that Shenzhen represents business opportunities and opportunities, you can make a lot of money by investing in Shenzhen. And mainland tourists also go to Shenzhen to buy things, because Shenzhen can buy things from Hong Kong.

Chen Wenhong wrote in the article: Shenzhen Special Economic Zone has not achieved the widely publicized development model of "focusing on industry, focusing on foreign investment and focusing on export". He accused Shenzhen’s prosperity of relying on "importing goods and materials to earn money in the domestic market". Although Chen Wenhong’s argument method has been questioned a lot, there are not a few people who hold similar views with him.

He calculated a simple account. In 1985, the total retail sales in Shenzhen divided by the population in Shenzhen was equal to the purchasing power of Shenzhen per capita. He calculated at that time that the purchasing power of Shenzhen per capita in 1984 was more than 4,000 yuan. At the same time, he calculated the per capita purchasing power of Beijing and Shanghai, which was only over 700 RMB, from which he concluded that the prosperity of Shenzhen depended on the purchasing power of the mainland. Therefore, he concluded that Shenzhen did not achieve the goal set when the SAR was established: it wanted to introduce foreign capital.

So his article once again caused a lot of controversy. Originally, Deng Xiaoping wrote this passage in 1984, so don’t argue any more. However, the article "What’s the Problem in Shenzhen" published by Chen Wenhong in 1985 once again pushed Shenzhen to the forefront and questioned the legitimacy and necessity of the establishment of Shenzhen Special Economic Zone again.

Until 1992, Deng Xiaoping went to Shenzhen to speak in the south. Only then did we see that Shenzhen was indeed developing along the direction envisaged in those years (export processing zone to attract foreign investment). What I saw in the early mid-1980s was that the mainland’s hot money wandered around there. By 1992, this phenomenon had been very rare. Shenzhen has truly become an export-oriented export processing zone.

In any case, Shenzhen is very successful among the four special economic zones. Today’s Shenzhen has become one of the four first-tier cities called "North to Guangzhou and Shenzhen". Now, Shenzhen’s GDP has surpassed that of Guangzhou, and its total GDP has exceeded 2.2 trillion. Now, Shenzhen has become the cradle of hard technology. A large number of entrepreneurs are willing to start a business in Shenzhen.

Now the Luohu port in Shenzhen.

When the escape from Hong Kong was the most serious, Vice Premier Gu Mu stood on the bank of Luohukou, Baoan County, and stood on the port bridge from Luohu to Hong Kong, saying, "I hope that one day, more people from there will come here." Today, the railway bridge at Luohu Port means that more Hong Kong people are going from Hong Kong to Shenzhen. At that time, the goal expected by Vice Premier Gu Mu has been achieved.

In 30 years, since 1980, great changes have really taken place in Shenzhen. I believe that in the late 1990s, the development model of Shenzhen has basically taken shape. Shenzhen has become an open and more market-oriented special economic zone. I believe that Shenzhen is more developed than many cities in the mainland, and Shenzhen’s economic development model is also a very important reason why it can dominate the high-tech industry now.

The Third Plenary Session of the Twelfth Central Committee in 1984: The focus of reform shifted from rural areas to cities.

When people were debating whether Shenzhen was a surname of capital or a surname of society, the Third Plenary Session of the 12th Central Committee was held in 1984, and the Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Economic System Reform was issued. In other words, when Shenzhen is engaged in construction in full swing, the economic system in most parts of our country is still in the era of planned economy.

In October 1984, the Third Plenary Session of the Twelfth Central Committee adopted the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China’s decision on economic system reform. Everyone is very surprised. Didn’t we start reform and opening up in 1978? But in fact, before 1984, our overall reform was in rural areas and agriculture. Only after the promulgation of the Decision on the Reform of the Socialist Economic System in 1984 (hereinafter referred to as the Decision) did the focus of economic reform shift to cities.

Deng Xiaoping spoke highly of this decision, saying that it was innovative to have something that our ancestors had never said. So what did the "Decision" in 1984 say that our ancestors didn’t say? The "commodity economy" was mentioned for the first time. At that time, we dared not mention the socialist market economy at all. In the Decision, we established that the goal of reform is to establish a socialist commodity economy, not a socialist market economy.

People who study Marxist political economy argue about "what is a commodity" all day. The corresponding product of the commodity. Market economy corresponds to commodity economy at that time, while planned economy corresponds to product economy at that time. Commodity economy is one step closer than product economy. So what is a commodity? It can be used as an exchange. Products cannot be exchanged, and only when they can be used for exchange can they become commodities. So at that time, the socialist commodity economy was written in the "Decision" of the Third Plenary Session of the Twelfth Central Committee. In Deng Xiaoping’s view, it was already something that the ancestors had not said. Perhaps Deng Xiaoping saw that it was not too far away from the market economy.

Therefore, since 1984, the reform in China has really started. Before 1984, the reform was spontaneous. After the "Decision" in 1984, we began to consciously and systematically promote the reform in the city.

However, when the "Decision" was issued, China’s economy experienced serious and growing inflation.

In the era of planned economy, there was no inflation. Because the price is set by the government. But in the era of planned economy, what will happen if demand exceeds supply? There will be people in need who have to wait in line. However, when the "Decision" was promulgated in 1984, in fact, the price was already somewhat loose. The government’s pricing on various items, including means of production and consumer goods, has begun to loosen. In other words, some phenomena that partially reflect the relationship between supply and demand have begun to appear in the market. As a result, inflation was out of control, and this phenomenon continued intermittently until 1987, which was slightly controlled in 1987 and rebounded in 1988. Therefore, when we issued the Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Economic System Reform, China’s economy has undergone a very interesting change. It is no longer a completely classic planned economy, and many factors of market exchange have begun to appear, which has pushed up the price.

In the mid-1980s, an East German economist visited Beijing. After listening to many introductions about China’s economic system reform, he said: "I think China’s reforms are all micro-reforms, and there is no macro-reform." He hinted that China did not pay attention to macro-stability in micro-reform.

As you can imagine, in the era of planned economy, demand is a serious shortage, demand is suppressed, and demand is a huge energy. Once it is left unchecked, prices will soar in the case of a serious shortage of supply. This explains why the government found that there was no way to control inflation at that time, because the economic policy at that time had no concept of macro-control.

When the Third Plenary Session of the Twelfth Central Committee proposed to promote the reform of urban economic system, we were already faced with the problem of macroeconomic instability. However, at that time, the decision on reform was still only microeconomic reform.

Throughout the 1980s, especially from 1984 to 1988, the most perplexing problem faced by the State Council was how to continue the reform of planned economy in cities when the macro economy was out of control and inflation pressure remained high.

Bashan Wheel Conference in 1985: the Starting Point of Macro-management

From September 2 to 8, 1985, more than 30 Chinese and foreign economists took a cruise ship "Bashan" from Wuhan to Chongqing, and held an "International Symposium on Macroeconomic Management" on the ship, which was later called "Bashan Wheel Conference". The oldest economist in China is Mr. Xue Muqiao, who was 81 years old. The youngest participant was Guo Shuqing, 29, who was still studying in China Academy of Social Sciences.

Group photo of all participants in Bashan Wheel Conference.

The importance of Bashan Round Meeting lies in that it made our reformers and economists understand the importance of macro-stability and macro-demand management for the first time, and also helped us better understand the importance of supporting reforms.

The Bashan Round Meeting was jointly organized by china society of economic reform, China Academy of Social Sciences and the World Bank. A total of seven or eight topics were discussed. The most important topic was: Why did inflation occur during the economic system reform? How to control inflation? What conditions does the reform need? How will macroeconomic imbalance affect reform? In what way should the reform be promoted?

James Tobin, the winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1981, and Janos Kornai, a Hungarian economist, were invited to this meeting. There are also economists from Britain and Japan.

The picture on the left shows James Tobin, winner of the 1981 Nobel Prize in Economics, and the picture on the right shows Janos Kornai, a Hungarian economist.

At the meeting, james tobin explained why inflation appeared in the process of reform, because wages in China rose too fast. He pointed out that since the rate of price increase is equal to the nominal wage rate minus the labor productivity, if the labor productivity increases, the wages will rise with it, which will not lead to price increase. However, if the rising rate of labor productivity is lower than that of nominal wages, and wages are artificially high, then prices will definitely rise.

In view of the pressure of the expansion of consumer funds and rising wages faced by China at that time, he even suggested that this formula (price increase rate = nominal wage rate-labor productivity) should be written down and put in the office of every state-owned enterprise manager and president of state-owned bank, so that they can always bear in mind that nominal wages should follow labor productivity.

Colne had experienced partial economic reforms in Hungary, which made his speech focus on the more basic reform mode. That is to say, there will be several ways to transition from planned economy to market economy, which is more feasible. His analysis has a great influence on China economists. His book "Shortage Economics" made him famous in China.

The picture shows a group photo of four economists attending the Bashan Wheel Conference.Among them are famous economists Xue Muqiao (first from left, former Secretary-General of the Finance and Economics Committee of the State Council and Director of the Bureau of Private Enterprises, Director of the National Bureau of Statistics, Director of the National Price Committee, and Director-General of the the State Council Economic Research Center), Ma Hong (second from left, former President of the China Policy Science Research Association) and Wu Jinglian (first from right, famous economist, researcher of the the State Council Development Research Center, and a leading economist in China).

"Moganshan Conference" in 1984: Price Double Track Transition?

The emergence of inflation led to the Bashan Wheel Conference in 1985. However, the price increase is not only the product of price reform, but also affects the process of price reform in turn. In the early stage of reform, how should the price reform be promoted? How can we minimize the impact of price reform on the interests of all aspects of society? This is the most basic reform problem after the central government decided to shift the focus of reform from rural areas to cities in 1984.

But in fact, just two months before the Third Plenary Session of the Twelfth Central Committee of the Communist Party of China made a decision on economic system reform, that is, in September 1984, a meeting of young economists was held in Moganshan, Zhejiang Province, which was called "Moganshan Meeting" in history, and its full name was "Academic Seminar for Young and Middle-aged Economic Scientists". The conference was aimed at national essay writing, and received 1,300 contributions. Among them, 120 were selected and divided into seven groups. They stayed up all night to discuss the reform plan of how to transition from planned economy to market economy. It is said that the most heated discussion and debate is the price group. As time goes by, the Moganshan Conference is also famous all over the world because of the debate on price reform.

The meeting not only attracted young economists from all over the country to participate enthusiastically, but also the leaders of Zhejiang Province at that time gave speeches. Zhang Jinfu, the central leader from Beijing, went to Hangzhou specially to listen to the summary report of the Moganshan meeting, and the person who reported to Zhang Jinfu was Watson.

Zhang Jinfu, former member of the Standing Committee of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China Advisory Committee and former State Councilor.

As a result, more than 20 years later, there was a famous debate between Watson and Zhang Weiying who also attended the Moganshan Conference, a debate about the right of invention, that is, who put forward the reform plan of the dual-track system price at the Moganshan Conference.

Zhang Weiying was a graduate student at Northwest University. Zhang Weiying said that this was his first time to fly from Xi ‘an to Hangzhou. This meeting is really the first time for many people.

This is a heated debate. Because I was writing that book about reform and opening up at that time, which was going to write "the reform of the two-track price system", both sides came to me to provide me with information. I remember one night when I was asleep, Zhang Weiying called me from Hong Kong. He seemed to be visiting the Chinese University of Hong Kong. He said, "Because you wrote this book, I’m going to copy a lot of original materials and send them." It’s very difficult for me to write this history, because I didn’t attend this meeting. I can only look at the memories of many people. At that time, there were many people involved in the discussion in the price group, some of whom later wrote reminiscence articles, and some participated in the debate between Watson and Zhang Weiying.

Zhang Weiying, co-founder of National Development Research Institute of Peking University (formerly China Economic Research Center of Peking University).

According to the information I have, the idea of price dual-track reform once appeared in Zhang Weiying’s article when he was studying at Northwest University, but it was not put forward at Moganshan Conference. According to the information provided by many people, at the Moganshan meeting, Zhang Weiying advocated "liberalizing the price", that is, "releasing the faction", while another faction, called "dispatching", advocated "adjusting the price and gradually reaching the designated position" instead of "liberalizing the price and reaching the designated position at one time". Watson seems to be a comprehensive school, that is, "the combination of adjustment and release", which is also a plan clearly suggested in the price report based on discussion. I guess that when Watson reports to Zhang Jinfu, he may report according to the idea of dual-track system.

Although the word "dual-track system" became the idea of price reform at the Moganshan meeting later, the word "dual-track system" was not invented by someone. Earlier, in 1982 and 1983, some important means of production, such as coal, had a double-track price phenomenon, otherwise there would be no inflation in China’s economy at that time. In other words, before the Moganshan Conference, the phenomenon of "price dual-track system" already existed.

However, the phenomenon of double-track price has really attracted the attention of economists, and many economists think that the double-track price system may be a feasible reform idea. After all, the risk of price liberalization at one time is too great, so it sounds reasonable to slowly adjust the planned price, and at the same time allow more excess output to be priced according to the relationship between supply and demand outside the plan, and gradually move towards the market price.

However, during the transition period, the dual-track price system means that "planned price" and "unplanned price" coexist. As you can imagine, according to such a dual-track reform, there will inevitably be a phenomenon of cross-track. Because the market price is high and the planned price is low, someone will definitely find a way to transfer the planned quota to the market, and there will be so-called collusion.

In 1985, a phenomenon appeared in China’s economy, which was called official defection, that is, the quota of official reselling plan. If you have connections, you go to the central ministries and commissions to approve a note, and you go to a steel factory to get 100 tons of steel at the planned price. Then, you buy a batch of steel at a low price with this note, and then sell it in the market at a market price higher than the planned price, and you gain huge benefits in the middle. In other words, connections and cops can bring you huge income. For a time, officials have become a corruption phenomenon that we are facing, and it has spread rapidly.

1986: the contest of reform plan

As a transitional way from planned price to market price, when many people discuss the advantages of the dual-track price system, economists such as Wu Jinglian oppose the idea of the dual-track price system. They are opposed to moving closer to the market price through the two-track method. They advocate "a basket of reforms". They believe that many factors in the economic system reform are interrelated, and you can’t just do part of the marketization. If you only do part of the market, it will definitely bring market chaos. At that time, an economic reform design office was established in the State Council, where the economists of the overall reformists were located.

They believe that this method of dual-track system not only leads to inflation, but also leads to corruption, official defection and rent-seeking. At that time, Professor Wu Jinglian and his research team wrote a lot of reports to the Central Committee, and convicted the two-track pricing system of eight crimes.

In the report, the "overall reformists" advocated that "a basket of reforms" should be promoted. In 1986, they submitted a report on the overall reform to the Central Committee, and then the State Council also held a meeting, which was also passed by the Central Committee. Regrettably, two months later, the "reform package" was shelved, so Wu Lao (Wu Jinglian) was deeply concerned about this matter. Wu Lao also mentioned this in his textbook Contemporary Economic Reform in China. Originally, the State Council planned to carry out reform according to this plan, but why did it go back on its word and give up later? I think, at that time, under the macroeconomic background of serious inflation, the "basket reform" plan was too risky. The State Council decided to suspend this reform plan, and instead decided to start the reform of enterprise ownership.

The picture shows the main representatives of the "overall reformist". From the right are: Zhou Xiaochuan (former governor of the People’s Bank of China), Li Jiange (chairman of China International Finance Corporation and former deputy director of the State Council Development Research Center), Lou Jiwei (former minister of finance and former deputy director of the State Council Development Research Center), Wu Jinglian (famous economist and researcher of the State Council Development Research Center), Wu Xiaoling (former vice president of the People’s Bank of China and former director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange), Guo Shuqing (currently chairman of the Insurance Regulatory Commission of the Bank of China,

From 1984 to 1987, faced with severe inflation, policymakers dared not take risks, and finally decided to shift the focus of reform to enterprise reform, and carry out contract system and joint-stock system reform of state-owned enterprises.

The ownership reform of state-owned enterprises is obviously the direct result after the "basket reform" scheme was shelved, and then the debate turned to enterprise reform. At that time, an economist had been calling for enterprise reform. He has a famous saying that "if China’s economic reform fails, it must be because of price reform;" If it succeeds, it must be because of enterprise reform. " This man is Professor Li Yining from Peking University. Therefore, Li Yining also has a nickname called Li Shares. Because Li Yining advocated that state-owned enterprises should carry out ownership reform and implement joint-stock system.

At that time, the central government gave up the plan of "overall reform" of the economic system represented by Wu Jinglian, and turned to enterprise reform, which virtually supported the plan of joint-stock reform of state-owned enterprises in Li Yining. At that time, I saw a sentence in the article introducing Wu Lao on the China Academic Information Network, saying that he proposed many plans to the government, which were proved to be correct afterwards, but they were often not adopted by the central authorities. I think the most important scheme that has not been adopted is the "overall reform theory" and the later "price breakthrough" scheme.

wu jinglian(Left)And Li Yining.(right) Both of them are famous economists and leading economists in China.

Wu Lao and Li Lao were born in the same month and studied in the same middle school. But for quite a long time from the late 1980s, the two of them didn’t face each other. Until 2008, when Peking University commemorated the 30th anniversary of China’s economic reform and opening-up, they were invited to participate in the commemorative activities together, and finally attended the ceremony on the same stage, face to face. Li Yining and Wu Jinglian are two representative economists who have made great contributions to the economic reform in China.

In the era of reform in the last century, economists participated in the process of reform in various ways. Everyone can say, "There is my contribution" and "There is my suggestion". Today, this phenomenon is almost impossible. That era was really romantic.

December 1978 Xiaogang Village’s "Fixed-output Household": Bottom-up Agricultural Reform

When it comes to agricultural reform, we should mention Xiaogang Village in Fengyang, Anhui Province, and Wan Li, the former chairman of the National People’s Congress.

When Wan Li was in charge of Anhui Province, a historic event happened in Xiaogang Village, Anhui Province. Eighteen farmers spontaneously carried out the secret action of "fixing production quotas to households" and made this famous contract. This is the winter of 1978.

The picture shows the written contract made by 18 villagers in Xiaogang Village in December, 1978 for the secret "production contract". There are 22 people on this list, including their wives and 18 people with fingerprints. Because it is stipulated in this agreement that if someone has an accident, others will raise their children until they are 18 years old, so this contract requires their wives to be present. The original handprint is kept in the Chinese History Museum, and a copy is kept in the museum in Xiaogang Village.

In November 1978, the 18 villagers in Xiaogang Village secretly discussed in Yan’s family that they would "fix the production quota to each household" and distribute the land to each family. It is risky to do this, and if it is leaked, it will lead to decapitation, so they pressed their handprints and promised to raise their children until they are 18 years old. This is a very tragic thing.

It is said that Wan Li, who was in charge of Anhui Province, knew about this matter, and Wan Li secretly sent people to Xiaogang Village to learn about the situation. Because the 18 farmers in Xiaogang Village worked for a year, the village next to them found that the village had an unexpected harvest, so they found that they secretly distributed the land to their families, so someone reported it to them. We can reasonably speculate that Wan Li knew about it at that time. However, Wan Li wisely called Deng Xiaoping to ask what to do. It is said that Deng Xiaoping’s reply was very simple, and he just did not say anything.

Wan Li thought that what Xiaogang Village did spontaneously was the right way, so he wrote a report to the Central Committee and got the support of Deng Xiaoping. Then, he wrote a report to the State Agriculture Committee and the Ministry of Agriculture, suggesting that the "household contract responsibility system" should be fully implemented, but the Ministry of Agriculture was very conservative. Wan Li was so upset. In 1980, Wan Li went to work in the Central Committee and served as the Deputy Prime Minister, in charge of agriculture. After working in the Central Committee for one year, starting from 1981, he proposed a comprehensive rectification of the Ministry of Agriculture to eliminate resistance.

During the discussion in the Central Committee, Wan Li and Hu Yaobang reached a consensus, advocating the promotion of "fixing production quotas to households" throughout the country. However, the resistance was particularly great, and there were great differences of opinion among the central decision-makers. The final decision was a compromise. The household contract responsibility system was implemented in different regions, not in developed regions, but only in particularly poor places, and everything in between also depends on the situation. Therefore, we can think that the household contract responsibility system was implemented "conditionally" at that time. However, Wan Li still thinks that farmers are eager to distribute their fields to their families.

At this time, Hu Yaobang stood on Wan Li’s side and gave Wan Li a lot of support. Despite great resistance, Wan Li and Hu Yaobang are still planning to draft a document to promote the household responsibility contract system.

In any case, Hu Yaobang and Wan Li are still actively promoting the "fixed production quotas" and finally persuaded the old comrades in the Central Committee. This formed the the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China No.1 Document in early 1982 (until now, this tradition continues, and the No.1 document issued by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China every year must be about agriculture), agreeing to gradually promote the implementation of the household responsibility contract system nationwide.

In 1982, the entity of the people’s commune still existed. A year later, in 1983, the people’s commune was substantially disintegrated and the township government was established. In other words, the people’s commune was completely replaced by the township government in 1983. In fact, it was not completed until the end of 1984. Therefore, when the household contract responsibility system was implemented in 1982, the people’s commune was still there. But without the joint efforts of Hu Yaobang and Wan Li, it is estimated that this matter will drag on for a long time.

Unusual in 1978: the first year of reform

Because this year marks the 40th anniversary of reform and opening up, we must tell more about what happened in 1978. In November 1978, Xiaogang village in Anhui province spontaneously appeared the action of "fixing production to households"; In April 1978, the State Planning Commission and the Ministry of Foreign Trade sent a delegation from Hong Kong and Macao, which finally led to the establishment of Shekou Industrial Zone and the establishment of a dock connecting Hong Kong and Macao, and later further led to the establishment of four special economic zones. What is more worth mentioning is that 1978 was a year of going abroad. In that year, 13 leaders of the Central Committee at or above the deputy national level made 20 overseas inspections.

Where did Deng Xiaoping go in 1978? First, Deng Xiaoping went to Japan in October. He visited Panasonic, and the Japanese used microwave ovens to process food. He felt very strange after seeing it. It can be said that when he went abroad for inspection in 1978, he was stimulated a lot. He also took the Shinkansen and said a meaningful sentence: This speed is just right for us.

The picture above shows Deng Xiaoping visiting Japan in 1978 and taking the Shinkansen. The picture below shows the governor of California riding the China high-speed train in 2017. Forty years ago, when Deng Xiaoping took the Japanese Shinkansen, he was filled with emotion: "Just like pushing us to run, we really need to run now!" Forty years later, the governor of California, USA, issued a similar sigh while riding the China high-speed train.

Then he went to New Matai and met with Lee Kuan Yew, then President of Singapore. In Singapore, what impressed him most was Singapore’s utilization of foreign capital, which was also the reason why he insisted on the establishment of Shenzhen Special Zone and the introduction of foreign capital. In the plan of establishing Shenzhen Special Economic Zone, it has always been emphasized that overseas Chinese should be used to introduce investment. Why does Deng Xiaoping support such a plan? Because he saw successful experience and amazing economic achievements in Singapore. He believes that China must open up and make use of foreign capital.

At the same time, Gu Mu took a delegation to visit West Germany and wrote a very detailed report after he came back. All these things happened before November 1978. Shortly after Deng Xiaoping returned from Singapore, he held a 36-day democratic thought meeting. It is to prepare for the Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee at the end of the year.

The Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee was held in Beijing Jingxi Hotel from December 18 to 22, 1978. Before that, the Central Committee held a 36-day democratic life meeting at the suggestion of Deng Xiaoping. During the 36-day meeting, the leaders who went abroad will bring back many new ideas from abroad and share them with the comrades of the whole Party. More importantly, Deng Xiaoping and the then top leaders of the Central Committee have waged an ideological struggle on whether to give up the class struggle and shift the focus of the Party’s work to economic construction. In a sense, this 36-day democratic thought meeting is the real starting point of China’s reform and opening up.

The Democratic Thought Conference has made great achievements, that is, Deng Xiaoping’s closing speech at this conference, "Emancipate the mind, seek truth from facts, unite and look forward". If we read through the full text, we will find that this speech is very, very important. It was in this closing speech that Deng Xiaoping came up with the important idea that developing economy rather than class struggle is the first priority. The theme of the Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee is actually to learn from Deng Xiaoping’s closing speech.

This historic change in the Party’s ideological line gave top priority to economic construction and bid farewell to the Cultural Revolution, which led to the romantic, rational and passionate years of reform in the 1980s.

(The above content is excerpted from Professor Zhang Jun’s speech entitled "Passionate Years-Economic Reform You Don’t Know" at the Starry Platform of Fudan University on April 19, 2018. The article was compiled by Wu Yiye, research assistant of the International School of Social Work, East China University of Science and Technology. )

Eight departments prevent and control teenagers’ myopia: regulate the total amount of online games, and ban mobile phones in class.

  BEIJING, Beijing, August 31 (Xinhua) On the 30th, the "Implementation Plan for Comprehensive Prevention and Control of Myopia among Children and Adolescents" formulated by the Ministry of Education and National Health Commission was announced. For example, ensure that primary school students sleep for 10 hours every day, prohibit students from bringing electronic products such as mobile phones into the classroom, and control the number of new online games. The plan lists a series of hard measures to "protect their eyes" for children and adolescents.

  — — By 2030, the myopia rate of high school students will drop below 70%

  The plan proposes that by 2023, we will strive to reduce the overall myopia rate of children and adolescents nationwide by more than 0.5 percentage points per year on the basis of 2018, and the provinces with high incidence of myopia will reduce by more than 1 percentage point per year.

  By 2030, the rate of new-onset myopia among children and adolescents in China will be significantly reduced, and the overall level of children and adolescents’ visual health will be significantly improved. The myopia rate of 6-year-old children will be controlled at around 3%, the myopia rate of primary school students will be reduced to below 38%, the myopia rate of junior high school students will be reduced to below 60%, the myopia rate of senior high school students will be reduced to below 70%, and the excellent rate of national students’ physical health standards will be over 25%.

  [family]

  — — Children are exposed to outdoor natural light for more than 60 minutes every day at home.

  The plan requires that a good family sports atmosphere should be created, and children should be actively guided to engage in outdoor activities or physical exercise, so that they can be exposed to outdoor natural light for more than 60 minutes every day at home.

  Encourage and support children to participate in various forms of sports activities, urge children to conscientiously complete sports homework in winter and summer vacations, enable them to master 1-2 sports skills, and guide children to develop lifelong exercise habits.

  — — The cumulative use of electronic products for non-learning purposes should not exceed 1 hour per day.

  The plan reminds parents to control the use of electronic products, and consciously control their children, especially preschool children, to use electronic products. The single use of electronic products for non-learning purposes should not exceed 15 minutes, and the cumulative time should not exceed 1 hour every day. After studying with electronic products for 30-40 minutes, they should take a rest and relax for 10 minutes. The younger they are, the shorter the continuous use of electronic products should be.

  — — Ensure that primary school students sleep for 10 hours every day.

  The plan requires that parents should supervise and correct their children’s bad reading and writing posture at any time, and the continuous eye use time for reading and writing should not exceed 40 minutes.

  Parents should cooperate with the school to effectively reduce the burden on their children. Don’t blindly participate in extracurricular training and follow the trend. They should make reasonable choices according to their hobbies to avoid reducing the burden on schools and families.

  Guarantee children’s sleep time, and ensure that primary school students sleep 10 hours a day, junior high school students 9 hours, and senior high school students 8 hours.

  — — Not assigning homework in the first and second grades of primary school should not make students’ homework become parents’ homework.

  The plan requires that schools should reduce students’ academic burden. There is no written homework for the first and second grades of primary school, and the completion time of written homework for the third to sixth grades should not exceed 60 minutes, and it should not exceed 90 minutes for junior high school. The homework time should also be reasonably arranged for senior high school. Strengthen practical homework, reduce mechanical and repetitive training, and prevent students’ homework from evolving into parents’ homework.

  — — Grade one and grade two exams shall not exceed once per semester, and other grades shall not exceed twice.

  The plan stipulates that the number of unified examinations in the compulsory education stage should be resolutely controlled. The first and second grades of primary school should not exceed once per semester, and other grades should not exceed twice per semester. It is strictly forbidden to publish students’ test scores and rankings in any form or manner; It is strictly forbidden to use the award-winning certificates of various competitions, academic competition results or grading certificates as the basis for enrollment; It is strictly forbidden to organize examinations to select students in various names.

  — — Adjust the seat every month according to the change of students’ vision, and adjust the seat height every semester.

  The plan requires that the phenomenon of "large class size" be eliminated quickly. The compliance rate of school classroom lighting hygiene standards is 100%. According to the viewing angle of students’ seats, the lighting situation in the classroom and the changes of students’ eyesight, the students’ seats are adjusted every month, and the height of students’ desks and chairs is adjusted individually every semester to adapt to the growth and development of students.

  According to the plan, ensure that primary and secondary school students have more than one hour of physical activity time every day at school. Strictly implement the national physical education and health curriculum standards, and ensure that the first and second grades of primary school have 4 class hours per week, the third to sixth grades and junior high school have 3 class hours per week, and the senior high school has 2 class hours per week. Primary and secondary schools arrange 30 minutes of big recess sports activities every day.

  — — Students are strictly forbidden to bring electronic products such as mobile phones and tablets into the classroom.

  According to the plan, schools should prohibit students from bringing personal mobile phones, tablets and other electronic products into the classroom, and those brought into the school should be kept in a unified way. In school education, electronic products are used reasonably according to the principle of demand, and teaching and assignment are not dependent on electronic products. In principle, the teaching time using electronic products should not exceed 30% of the total teaching time, and paper homework should be used in principle.

  — — Textbooks, test papers and other font papers should protect their eyesight and push mandatory standards before the end of next year.

  According to the plan, before the end of 2019, National Health Commission will, together with relevant departments, issue relevant mandatory standards to strictly regulate the fonts and papers of textbooks, teaching AIDS, examination papers, exercise books, newspapers and other printed materials and publications for children and adolescents, as well as study lamps, so as to protect their eyesight.

  — — Regulating the total amount of online games and controlling the number of online games newly added.

  According to the plan, the State Press and Publication Administration should regulate the total number of online games, control the number of new online games, explore an age-appropriate reminder system in line with national conditions, and take measures to limit the use time of minors.

  In addition, the State Administration of Market Supervision should strictly supervise the optometry and glasses industry, standardize the glasses market, and prevent unqualified glasses from entering the market. Strengthen advertising supervision and investigate and deal with false and illegal advertisements for myopia prevention and control products according to law.

  — — Prevention and control of myopia, overall myopia rate and physical health are included in the government performance appraisal.

  According to the plan, the State Council authorized the Ministry of Education, the National Health and Wellness Commission and the provincial people’s governments to sign responsibility letters for comprehensively strengthening the prevention and control of myopia among children and adolescents, and local people’s governments at all levels signed responsibility letters step by step. The prevention and control of myopia in children and adolescents, the overall myopia rate and physical health status will be included in the government performance appraisal.

  Incorporate vision health into quality education, incorporate children’s physical and mental health and schoolwork burden into the national compulsory education quality monitoring and evaluation system, and hold local governments and schools accountable according to laws and regulations for the decline of children’s physical health for three consecutive years.

Do you understand the rumored "selling assets at a high price" correctly?

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Author Liu Yan

Editor Xin Ling

Toutu. com

After a wave of unrest, Gao Wei fell into a storm of public opinion again.

First, it was rumored that the consumer group was "indiscriminately laying off employees". After Gao Yan’s urgent rumor, it was rumored that some of its projects were "frequently looking for buyers", "selling a lot of assets" and "looking for a takeover man" … and then the market conveyed various speculations.

In response to the so-called "selling assets" in the market, Gao Yan responded to the entrepreneurial state and said: "International markets such as Coller Capital and TR Capital are all mature players in the S market. S-transactions are more often about the continuation of assets than the simple sale of assets. In the simplest way, the seller who sells the share is not a VC/PE institution, but a share transfer between LPs. Before and after the asset package transaction, the GP share remains unchanged. That is to say, the so-called’ high-selling assets’, in essence, the share transfer between high-selling LP is not high-selling assets.

At the same time, according to the entrepreneurial state, Gao Yan is also setting up a special S fund team. Gao Wei said: "S trading has two meanings for Gao Wei. On the one hand, it can serve our LP and help the existing LP to better grasp the exit rhythm. At the same time, we are also very optimistic about the investment opportunities in the S market. For the long-term optimistic areas, we can either invest in new shares or intervene in the S fund. We believe that S trading, as a new tool, has great market potential and promotes venture capital. "

Let’s not comment on the deep-seated reasons behind Gao Ling’s trading in S, but from the feedback of the market, do we really know S funds?

The answer may not be.

As far as the incident itself is concerned, "Gao Yi sets up S fund team" has been misunderstood by the market as "Gao Yi sells assets". The so-called "high-selling assets" in the market is actually the share transfer between high-selling "LP", which can make the old LP get liquidity and withdraw early, but high-selling is still the holder of assets, and its share of assets remains unchanged.

When Gao Ying set up the S fund, it appeared as a buyer in the S transaction, and they would buy fund shares, investment portfolios or investment commitments from other investors.

We can see that Gao Ling, as an important weather vane, has begun to focus on the hidden opportunities in S trading.

The fundamental reason why the market has misunderstood Gao Ling’s fund is that many people confuse the concepts of S fund and S trading, and think that S fund is only an exclusive game dominated by LP, and GP with operational problems will passively participate. Even most GPs deliberately stay away from the S fund, which seems to have the label of "disposal of non-performing assets", for the sake of brand protection.

In fact, S trading is a good tool to help GP "make money". More and more foreign GPs take the initiative to use S trading as a tool to solve the problems of raising funds, withdrawing, optimizing LP structure, asset management, adjusting investment strategy and withdrawing cash.

After more than 20 years’ development, this innovative financial instrument has entered a milestone development abroad. The landmark event is that in 2021, the GP-led S transaction exceeded the LP-led transaction scale for the first time, and it showed a sustained growth trend. According to the latest data of Jefferies in the United States, the transaction volume dominated by GP has increased from 35 billion dollars in 2020 to 68 billion dollars in 2021, accounting for more than half of the transaction volume in the S market, among which, the continuation fund (a model in S trading) accounts for the majority. This survey is also verified by Lazard’s data.

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Foreign GP-led transactions surpassed LP-led transactions for the first time, accounting for half of the total trading volume in the S market (Source: Lazard).

However, in China, the vast majority of China GPs don’t realize the intrinsic value of S-trading. In most cases, GPs passively participate in S-trading when LP needs to withdraw, and the GP institutions that actively initiate trading are rare. As far as quantity is concerned, there are only a few domestic GP-led trading cases, such as IDG Capital, Kunzhong Capital, Huagai Capital-Shenzhen Venture Capital, Junlian Capital, Xiangfeng Fund and Puzzle Capital.

As a professional buyer, S fund managers generally believe that the risk coefficient of GP-led S trading is higher than that of LP-led S trading, but the return on investment is also significantly higher. This has also become one of the important reasons why the big buyers of foreign mature S funds represented by Kohler Capital actively participate in GP-led transactions.

What is GP-led s trading? When will it become mainstream in China? How can VC/PE managers use it to create more value?

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S fund has been known to most GPs. As the market tends to be hot, 2020 is also called the first year of China S Fund. However, many people’s first impression of S fund still stays at the level of "taker" of non-performing assets.

Tracing back to 30 years ago, when S Fund was born abroad, it also had the derogatory color of "disposal of non-performing assets".

"In the beginning, S funds were only used when there were major problems in American funds. At that time, some big GPs would try to avoid having relations with S funds, so as not to be labeled as’ bad’. Now, more and more GPs are actively looking for S funds to cooperate, in order to create more income. At present, the awareness of S funds in the China market in the early stage of development is at most a neutral concept. " Yang Zhan, director of Kohler’s capital investment and general manager of Kohler (Beijing) Private Equity Fund Management Co., Ltd. introduced.

"The fund expires to find the next LP, just as it is common for a girl to find an object when she is older." Executive CEO Li Miao made an image metaphor. She believes that it is absolutely unnecessary for GP to avoid the normal behavior of selling assets or transferring shares.

"Generally, it is very good that 20% of the assets of US dollar funds can be withdrawn through IPO, and a large number of other assets need to be withdrawn through mergers and acquisitions, transfer, repurchase and liquidation." As an early group of S fund practitioners in China, Li Mingming, managing director of Xingnahe Capital, told Entrepreneurship.

"The market has a certain misunderstanding of the S fund. The S fund will not simply buy bad assets, but can look at the underlying assets through cycles and outlets and invest in valuable asset packages. And in general, the return on investment of S funds is higher than that of parent funds, even higher than that of some PE/VC funds, and J curve can be avoided to some extent. " Li Mingming thinks.

"In China, many VC/PE institutions and even the media often confuse the concept of S fund with S transaction, which leads many GPs to wonder whether they should find S fund to receive assets or do S fund, and even narrowly think that only S fund can help GP." Li Miao said.

The main difference between S fund and S transaction is that S fund is one of many participants in S transaction and a part of S market. S fund is a Secondary Fund, which specializes in investing in the private equity secondary market.

For example, there are Kohler Capital and TR Capital abroad, and there are Gefei S Fund, Nuelle S Fund, SIIC Shengshi S Fund (jointly established by Shengshi Investment and SIIC Group) and Shenzhen Venture Capital S Fund in China, which act as buyers in S transactions.

S transaction refers to the Secondary Transaction of private equity, which is commonly divided into two types: LP-led and GP-led.

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Among various transaction types, GP and LP have achieved different requirements (source: Executive Middle School).

Most GPs in China are familiar with the LP-dominated trading mode, and most of them are the share transfer between LPs due to liquidity considerations. Because it is difficult to bring increment to the management scale of VC/PE funds, GPs generally have no driving force to actively cooperate with S trading links such as full adjustment and industrial and commercial changes.

What VC/PE in China ignores is that GP-led S transaction usually refers to a transaction in which GP takes the initiative to transfer one or more assets or fund shares to a new fund, and the new fund will continue to be managed by the existing GP or related parties. It is generally divided into various types, such as continuing fund, fund reorganization, late trading and tied trading.

After removing the misunderstanding of S-transaction and S-fund, we further analyze the value of GP-led S-transaction to VC/PE institutional managers.

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For GP, what other "money-making" opportunities are implied in S trading?

Generally speaking, passive pressure and active interests are enough to drive more and more China GPs to actively participate in the private equity secondary market. This is Li Miao’s view.

As far as income is concerned, she learned that the income of investment institutions participating in S trading is considerable. "The first income from investing in S shares comes from discount income, but more income comes from the later appreciation of assets. We are familiar with S funds and financial institutions that have participated in the S market since 2021. "

For example, a fund restructuring transaction led by Kunzhong Capital, as the seller, created a 25% DPI for RMB funds. In addition, some investors revealed that the investment return performance of individual market-oriented S funds in China is better than that of mature foreign markets, and they are enjoying the early dividends in China’s S market.

However, the market dividend of S fund for LP share discount transfer will not last forever. "After a wave of market dividends in the downturn of the secondary market in 2018, the share of S in COVID-19 will be rapidly ignited in 2020, because the share of S can accelerate the cash return, reduce the risk of blind pools, and the discount rate will increase the return on income." As a parent fund practitioner for many years, Li Mingming, managing director of Xingnahe Capital, said.

After communicating with her peers, she basically reached a general consensus that the small LP share discount transfer has actually entered a relatively fierce level in China, and the "missing" behavior of buying and selling shares at low prices between LPs is difficult to last for a long time. In contrast, the complex S trading led by GP will gradually become a new trend.

"In the past two or three years, foreign GP-led transactions have gradually increased, and now it has accounted for half of S transactions, of which single assets have more transactions. The reason is not only related to the expiration of many foreign funds, but also because S trading has become one of the important exit paths for foreign M&A funds. Through S trading, M&A funds can retain assets for a longer period of time in order to obtain higher returns. " Kohler Capital Yang Zhan analyzes the differences between China and foreign countries.

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Many people said that the two core pain points of fund-raising and withdrawal will force China GP to find more exit ways, and S-trading will gradually become an important supplement to various exit channels such as IPO, M&A and liquidation. This trend is basically consistent with the mature American market of private equity.

Although the multi-level capital markets such as Beijing Stock Exchange, Growth Enterprise Market registration system and science and technology innovation board can broaden the exit channels, the pressure of fund exit is still great, and a large number of funds are entering the liquidation period one after another, and the demand for fund late trading is great. "Looking back at the VC/PE industry in China, it experienced rapid development from 2015 to 2017, during which a large number of market-oriented funds were established with a term of 5-7 years. Now many funds have reached the liquidation period, and LP urgently needs liquidity. In addition, there are many funds that take money from the financial funds with a term of 10 years, and they have also come to the exit period one after another, and the enthusiasm of state-owned assets to participate in S-share trading is getting higher and higher. The stock market of domestic S transactions is very large, with a scale of more than 13 trillion yuan. " Huang Zhenlei, deputy general manager of Beijing Equity Exchange Center, told Entrepreneurship.

Why are "second-hand share" trading opportunities more active in the stock market era?

Kohler Capital Yang Zhan made an image metaphor: "The Beijing real estate market has entered the stock market, and the second-hand housing transactions are active, accounting for the vast majority of the total transaction volume, which is a bit like the reason that the private equity secondary market in China will gradually enter the stock market; The real estate market in Xiong’ an is just the opposite. The real estate development time is delayed in Beijing, and it is still in the era of first-hand housing transactions, and there will be no large-scale second-hand housing transactions for the time being. "

Yang Zhan is optimistic about the market potential of a large number of second-hand shares in China market. Kohler Capital, where he works, is the buyer of the private equity secondary market with the largest investment team in the world, and its investment strategy will also focus on the GP-led market.

Huang Zhenlei of Beijing Equity Exchange Center revealed to Entrepreneurship: "As the first pilot of S share transfer in China, the transaction volume of Beijing Equity Exchange Center has shown a substantial growth trend in the last two years. Last year, the transaction volume reached 1 billion, and it is expected to break through 10 billion yuan this year."

Then analyze the pressure of GP fundraising. Factors such as new asset management regulations, tight financial funds, and financial difficulties of listed companies lead to difficulties in LP’s capital contribution. The situation that LP’s subscribed capital contribution is not in place, LP requires DPI, and fund raising increases the pressure on GP to raise funds.

What is the root cause of the difficulty in raising funds for GP?

Li Miao has different perspectives: "Compared with other asset classes, private equity funds have a long cycle and high uncertainty of investment returns. The core reason is a serious shortage of liquidity. An illiquid asset is lifeless, and S trading can just solve the liquidity problem of private equity funds. Money is the smartest and will flow to assets that can generate returns, so now we can see that a larger amount of funds have entered the private equity secondary market. "

"Despite the existence of market demand and GP pain points, on the whole, the enthusiasm of domestic GPs to actively participate in S trading needs to be improved. Although they are interested in S trading, there are not many real participants. Compared with overseas developed markets, S trading in China market is still in the early stage, and the market space is very large. " Huang Zhenlei of Beijing Equity Exchange Center said.

Judging from the proportion of capital contribution, the main sellers in China S market may be finance, central enterprises, state-owned enterprises and financial institutions, but the buyer’s strength needs to be cultivated, the types of intermediary institutions need to be enriched, and the pricing mechanism for financial state-owned shares needs to be further improved. Judging from the transactions completed by Beijing Equity Exchange Center, although there are occasional packaged asset transactions and GP restructuring, the trading mode is relatively simple, and GP-coordinated LP share trading is still the mainstream.

"A core point is that when the assets invested by GP are really poor, it is not S trading that can solve the problems of withdrawal and fundraising, and the cart before the horse cannot be put". Li Miao reminds some players who want to participate in the transaction.

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"Foreign fund managers and investors will use S trading as a tool to adjust their existing portfolios, just like buying stocks to adjust positions." Kohler Capital Yang Zhan said that the frequency of domestic players using S tools is obviously not high.

In addition, according to the observation of many domestic people, a new phenomenon has begun to appear in the China market. When some GPs encounter difficulties in fund-raising, they begin to use S trading tools and promise to sell some assets of new LP or past fund shares at low prices in exchange for the possibility of LP contributing to the new fund, so as to achieve the purpose of fund-raising. This practice of "tying up assets" belongs to bundled transactions.

"Although there are similar binding modes abroad, the thinking logic and original intention are different." Kohler Capital Yang Zhan reminds domestic players.

According to Li Miao, some FA will use Mingchi Continuation Fund when raising funds for GP. "this method is more suitable for new funds or GP that has just come out to raise funds and is being institutionalized. S tool can help GP create DPI performance. In addition, a single old stock and asset package transaction can also be used as a value exchange to create DPI for GP. With DPI, GP will make it easier for the new LP to see its historical performance and raise funds more conveniently. "

In fact, continuing fund and fund reorganization have become a new way of playing individual head GP in China in recent two years. "Asset restructuring seeks to withdraw, and generally packages a number of assets to speed up the withdrawal of funds and release more management energy of GP. It can also adjust investment strategies, turn to other track investments, and even actively optimize the LP structure and absorb institutionalized LP. In addition, you can also make a single project fund share transfer. " Huang Zhenlei of Beijing Equity Exchange Center said.

In China, the fund restructuring transaction known as the first RMB-to-US dollar fund in China is dominated by Kunzhong Capital.

In 2020, Kunzhong Capital packaged and sold seven projects to overseas entities set up by TR CAPITAL, creating a 25% DPI for RMB funds, and the transaction involved about 100 million US dollars. Through this S transaction, Kunzhong Capital completed the withdrawal of some RMB assets, and at the same time realized the raising of the first US dollar fund of Kunzhong Capital. Also completed the RMB-to-US-dollar fund restructuring transaction is Unconfused Capital, with the transaction scale exceeding 100 million US dollars. It can be seen that the GP-led S transaction can realize dual-currency conversion and solve the fundraising problem smoothly.

Kunzhong Capital Dollar Fund Reorganization Transaction Chart (Source: Guangchen Consultant "Ten Thousand Folds Must Be East")

Guangchen Consultant stated in "Ten Thousand Folds Must Go East" that Kunzhong Capital achieved a win-win situation among the three parties through this transaction. First of all, the original LP achieved considerable DPI through this transaction, which improved the overall cash performance of the fund in 2016; Secondly, the new LP has obtained the potential appreciation space of assets in the future; Thirdly, RMB LP helped GP upgrade to a dual-currency GP with more brand influence, paving the way for GP to enter the US dollar fund market for future financing.

In September, 2020, IDG led the completion of the S-fund restructuring transaction with NAV (Net Fund Share) exceeding USD 600 million, which became the largest publicly disclosed S-fund transaction in the history of China at that time.

This typical GP-led S-trade has injected a shot in the arm into the S-market. In the transaction, IDG packaged the portfolio of one of its RMB funds that has not been withdrawn into US dollar funds, involving more than 10 projects, and the buyer was a consortium led by Harbour Vest, an international parent fund management agency.

According to the observation of Entrepreneurship, the S transaction led by IDG capital is relatively active. At the beginning of this year, the largest single paid-in "QFLP+S" fund was established in Wuxi, which is also the first cross-border S fund of IDG to complete the payment.

Let’s look at the first publicly available large-scale RMB GP-led fund share restructuring transaction in China, with Huagai Capital as the leading party and Shenzhen Venture Capital S Fund participating as CO-GP.

The scale of this S fund is 800 million yuan. As the first RMB-structured reorganization and continuation fund in China, Huagai Capital has packaged many star projects such as Fuhong Hanlin. Through this continuation fund, Huagai Capital further enlarges the value of the portfolio, prolongs the holding period of star assets, and thus improves the return on investment.

In addition, Junlian Capital also completed a typical GP-led medical continuation fund transaction in 2021, with a transaction scale of US$ 270 million. Among them, one of the important buyers of the transaction is Kohler Capital. Prior to this, in February 2020, Junlian also completed a $200 million continuation fund transaction.

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Junlian Capital’s $270 million medical and health continuation fund transaction chart (Source: Zhongzhong)

Vilen, managing director of Xingnahe Capital, suggested that GP should have strong resource control ability, and it is best to find a professional intermediary or professional buyer to cooperate. Generally, GP may find it difficult to copy the existing gameplay of other GPs.

As one of the earliest S-trading practitioners in China, vilen thinks that the current S-market in China may not be as lively as most people feel. After all, the S-market in China is in its early stage, and the professionalism of the buyers and sellers involved in the transaction is extremely high. "S-trading is highly complex, the trading process is complex, the water is deep and there are many pits, so participants need to be cautious, otherwise there will be many potential risks."

Finally, many senior people said that there will be special trading opportunities and market dividends when the secondary market is depressed. 2022 is undoubtedly a good opportunity for S fund buyers to buy excellent assets, but it is not necessarily a good time for GP to sell assets.

If you are right"s trading topic"Interested, welcome to add the author’s WeChat communication (ID: ID:i20130214).

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Dare to teach the sun and the moon to change into a new sky | A quick look at the eleventh episode of "Raising the Flag and Orienting" and the twelfth episode of "Wandering Home"

  The 24-episode large-scale documentary feature film "Dare to Teach the Sun and Moon to Change the Sky" was jointly produced by the Propaganda Department of the CPC Central Committee, the Central Party History and Literature Research Institute, the National Development and Reform Commission, the State Administration of Radio and Television, the China Academy of Social Sciences, the Central Radio and Television Station, the Central Archives and the Political Work Department of the Central Military Commission.

  Guided by the Supreme Leader’s Socialism with Chinese characteristics Thought in the New Era, the film fully implements the important exposition of the Supreme Leader’s General Secretary on the history of the Party, adheres to a correct view of the history of the Party, seeks truth from facts, and pays attention to the combination of history and theory. It comprehensively shows the great course, brilliant achievements and valuable experience of the Communist Party of China (CPC)’s unremitting struggle in the past 100 years, deeply reflects the vicissitudes and great changes that have taken place in the land of China with the lofty sentiments of "Dare to teach the sun and the moon for a new day", and makes the Chinese nation usher in a great leap from standing up, becoming rich and becoming strong.

  From June 20th, the film was continuously broadcast at 20: 00 on the CCTV Comprehensive Channel of the Central Radio and Television Station, and the CCTV Record Channel, CCTV News, CCTV Video, CCTV Network, Cloud Listening Client and other new media platforms were launched simultaneously.

  Episode 11: Flag Raising Orientation

  In the middle and late 1980s, with the deepening of reform and opening up and the transformation of economic system, many deep-seated contradictions began to emerge in China.

  Jiang Zemin: "Since the Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee of the Party, the line and basic policies have not changed, and we must continue to implement them."

  It is the common expectation of all people in China that the country is prosperous and the people are safe. Faced with the economic blockade and sanctions imposed by western countries, the Communist Party of China (CPC) people gave a clear answer.

  Jiang Zemin: "The people of China have never and will never succumb to any external pressure."

  The 11th Asian Games opened in Beijing.

  Through efforts, China has effectively responded to external challenges. The sanctions imposed by western countries were finally broken.

  In 1990, Pudong began to accelerate its development and opening up.

  The opening of the two exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen has sent a strong signal to the world that China’s economic reform will move forward unswervingly.

  In the early spring of 1992, 88-year-old Deng Xiaoping visited the South and made a series of important talks.

  Deng Xiaoping: "As long as China does not engage in socialism, reform and opening up, develop the economy, and gradually improve people’s lives, it is a dead end to take any road."

  Talk in the south is like a strong east wind, which dispels the fog in people’s minds.

  In October 1992, the 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of China was successfully held.

  The congress decided that the goal of China’s economic system reform is to establish a socialist market economic system.

  In September 1997, the 15th National Congress of the Communist Party of China was held ceremoniously.

  The Congress established Deng Xiaoping Theory as the Party’s guiding ideology, put forward the Party’s basic program in the primary stage of socialism, and made strategic arrangements for China’s cross-century development.

  Joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) is an important decision made by the CPC Central Committee.

  The Fourth Ministerial Conference of the World Trade Organization: "The Ministerial Conference unanimously adopted."

  On December 11th, 2001, China became the 143rd member of the WTO, which opened a new world to the outside world.

  The people of the Communist Party of China (CPC), with Comrade Jiang Zemin as the main representative, have withstood a series of severe tests from home and abroad and nature, raised and stabilized the great banner of Socialism with Chinese characteristics, and brought a prosperous country into the 21st century.

  Episode 12: Wandering Home

  Realizing the reunification of the motherland is always the unswerving pursuit of the Communist Party of China (CPC) people and the common aspiration of all Chinese people.

  On September 22, 1982, China and Britain formally started the negotiations on the Hong Kong issue.

  On December 19th, 1984, the Joint Declaration on the Question of Hong Kong was signed. The China government announced that it will resume the exercise of sovereignty over Hong Kong on July 1, 1997.

  In the late transition period, the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Jiang Zemin at the core shoulders the great trust of all China people and bravely shoulders the historical responsibility of realizing the smooth return of Hong Kong to the motherland.

   "On behalf of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army troops stationed in Hong Kong, I took over the military camp. You can be laid off and we will take up our posts. I wish you a safe journey."

  Hong Kong citizens: "Happy, back! I am Chinese! "

  Jiang Zemin: "This is a great event for the Chinese nation and a victory for the cause of world peace and justice."

  After a hundred years of vicissitudes, Hong Kong’s successful return to the embrace of the motherland is a great achievement in the history of the Chinese nation. Hong Kong compatriots have since become the real masters of this land of the motherland.

  When the process of Hong Kong’s return started, another wanderer of the motherland — — Macao is also on the way home.

  Jiang Zemin: "The Chinese and Portuguese governments held a solemn handover ceremony of Macao’s political power here, announcing that the China government will resume the exercise of sovereignty over Macao. History will always remember this important moment of world concern. "

  Macao, which experienced negative economic growth for four consecutive years before the reunification and was worried about public security, has one of the fastest economic growth rates in the world since the reunification.

  Taiwan Province is an inseparable part of China.

  In the early 1980s, Deng Xiaoping put forward the concept of "one country, two systems", which opened the door for the development of cross-strait relations.

  Castle peak is the same, and the wind and rain are the same. No matter how the situation on the island changes, the historical trend of realizing the complete reunification of the motherland is irreversible.

  Supreme leader: "history can’t be chosen, we can grasp it now, and the future can be created!" As long as we work together and strive together, we will certainly be able to accomplish the great cause of the motherland’s reunification!

Class 2, Youth, No.65th Session of the Party School of Zhengzhou Municipal Committee, held a student forum.

  Cctv news Recently, with the theme of "improving the emergency response ability and keeping the bottom line of safety and stability", the second class of the 65th Middle School of the Party School of Zhengzhou Municipal Committee held a student forum on how to improve the emergency response ability of young and middle-aged cadres. During the activity, 15 students’ representatives exchanged speeches, and Deng Yunqi, director of the cadre planning office of the Organization Department of Zhengzhou Municipal Committee, made a summary comment.

  At the forum, all the students spoke from different perspectives and fields closely around the theme, combining their work practice and learning experience. Students communicate from the practical level, explain their views from the industry field, express their views from the perspective of "learning from practice", and solve the problem of emergency response ability of young and middle-aged cadres with "understanding thinking".

  The atmosphere at the forum was warm, and "flash" suggestions emerged one after another. The speeches included both theoretical explanations and case analysis. There are both problems and countermeasures; There are both experiences and lessons. Through this forum, the students exchanged ideas, enlightened their wisdom, tested the learning effect, and embodied the purpose of applying what they have learned to promote learning.

  Deng Yunqi fully affirmed this student forum. He believes that the forum is well-prepared, well-organized, and has a strong atmosphere. All the students have made in-depth thinking based on their own job responsibilities and professional fields, and made speeches from different dimensions and perspectives. He expressed the hope that everyone will cherish the learning platform of the party school, take everything and every activity seriously, calm down, think deeply, discuss and communicate, improve their ability in all directions, lay a solid foundation for future work, and live up to the trust and cultivation of the organization.

China Employment Situation Report: 2019


  Text: Ren Zeping Xiong Chai Zhou Zhe of Evergrande Research Institute.


  Intern Zhou Xinyi and others contributed to this article.


  guide reading


  In July 2018, Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party put forward the requirement of "six stabilities" to do a good job in economic work, putting "stable employment" in the first place. In 2019, the Government Work Report put the employment priority policy at the macro-policy level for the first time, and asked higher vocational colleges to expand enrollment by 1 million. In May, the the State Council Employment Leading Group was established for the first time, which showed that the central government attached great importance to employment. What is the current employment situation in China?


  abstract


  There are limitations or distortions in judging the employment situation only by official unemployment rate and other data. 1) The registered unemployment rate in cities and towns depends on the unemployed taking the initiative to register with the social and social departments, and it is only for the non-agricultural population. The data fluctuates slightly, and it fell to 3.61% at the end of the second quarter of 2019, which is not related to the economic trend. 2) The urban survey unemployment rate was officially announced from the beginning of 2018, and it continued to be higher than 5% in 2019 and 5.1% in June. However, the survey sample of 85,000 urban households only accounts for 0.03% of the urban employment in China, and the sampling rate is only half of 0.07% in the United States. Moreover, it is not representative of migrant workers and the sampling frame is aging. 3) The recruitment rate depends on the fact that job seekers and employers voluntarily register with local public employment service agencies, and the data shows a long-term upward trend, with limited reference value. In the second quarter of 2019, it was 1.22, both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. 4) To judge the employment situation, we need not only employment quantity indicators such as unemployment rate, but also employment quality indicators such as average working hours, salary growth rate and part-time job ratio, but there are limited indicators to measure employment quality at present.


  Other employment data reflect the current real employment pressure. 1) The number of new jobs in cities and towns decreased by 2% year-on-year in the first half of this year, and the growth rate of the number of people receiving unemployment benefits and re-employment was not optimistic. In the first half of 2019, there were only 7.47 million new jobs in cities and towns, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%, and the target completion rate dropped to 67.0%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points compared with the first half of last year. In the first quarter of 2019, the year-on-year growth rate of the number of people receiving unemployment insurance benefits has increased for five consecutive quarters. From January to May 2019, the number of unemployed people in cities and towns re-employed decreased by 9.1%, and the number of people with employment difficulties decreased by 4.2%. 2) Both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI employee indices tend to decline. In June 2019, the manufacturing PMI employee index fell to 46.9%, the lowest since March 2009; Non-manufacturing PMI employees index fell to 48.2%, falling for two consecutive months. 3) The CIER index of Renmin University and Zhilian recruitment is still at a low level in the second quarter. The CIER index is the ratio of recruitment demand to the number of applicants on the Zhaopin recruitment website, which was 1.89 in the second quarter of 2019, although it rose slightly year-on-year, it was still at a low level. In terms of regions, the CIER indices in the eastern, central, western and northeastern regions in the second quarter of 2019 were 1.18, 1.14, 0.92 and 0.66, respectively, which all declined year-on-year, and the eastern region experienced the largest decline; In terms of cities, the CIER indices of first-tier, new-tier, second-tier and third-tier cities are 0.60, 0.94, 1.18 and 1.25 respectively.Second-and third-tier cities saw the biggest decline. 4) In the first half of 2019, the search volume of job-related keywords in Baidu Index surged. The search volume of Baidu for keywords such as "looking for a job", "recruitment", "recruitment information" and "unemployment benefits" in the past 90 days increased by 482%, 492%, 80% and 122% respectively.


  The economic downturn will further put pressure on the job market. 1) The current economic and financial situation is grim. In the second quarter of 2019, the GDP growth rate dropped to a new low of 6.2%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter. Moreover, the impact of the escalation of trade friction in May and the intensive introduction of real estate financing tightening policies has not yet appeared. Recently, leading economic indicators have declined, such as real estate sales, land purchase and funding sources, PMI orders and PMI export orders. Moreover, the economic and financial structure is deteriorating. For example, the proportion of medium and long-term loans of enterprises has declined, while the proportion of short-term loans and short-term financing has increased; PPI goes down, and corporate profits decline. Although the continuous reduction of labor supply will alleviate the employment pressure, the economic slowdown will lead to a further slowdown in labor demand and further pressure on the job market, although large-scale unemployment is unlikely. 2) From the perspective of industry, the employment in manufacturing industry is mainly affected by the downturn in exports and the decline in profits of PPI-declining enterprises. The construction industry is affected by the limited space for infrastructure recovery and the decline in real estate investment, and the follow-up is not optimistic; According to Zhaopin’s recruitment data, the recruitment demand in the financial industry decreased by 39.7% and 37.0% in the first and second quarters respectively, and the Internet/e-commerce decreased by 22.5% and 13.6% respectively. From the perspective of key groups, the scale of college graduates continues to hit a new high, the growth rate of migrant workers slows down but their age is aging, the scale of "4050" personnel rises, and the employment pressure is greater. 3) Policy suggestions. First, further vigorously optimize the business environment, promote the implementation of tax reduction and fee reduction, and smooth financing channels.Give full play to the role of enterprises as the main body of stable employment, especially private and small and medium-sized enterprises. Private and small and medium-sized enterprises are the main body to attract employment, but the business environment has deteriorated in the past few years, including being injured to some extent in the past deleveraging, capacity reduction and environmental protection storms, and the continued downturn in exports has increased their survival pressure, coupled with poor financing channels and liquidity stratification. Although the government has issued a number of policies to bail out private and small and medium-sized enterprises, the effect of the policies remains to be seen. Second, increase the opening up of the service industry, especially the financial, educational, medical and telecommunications industries; Accelerate the construction of metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations with big cities as the core, increase the density and frequency of economically active population to promote agglomeration, and give full play to the role of service industry in absorbing employment. The third is to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, not only to prevent excessive financial bubble, but also to prevent active puncture from causing major financial risks. Fourth, solidly promote the large-scale enrollment expansion of higher vocational colleges, implement large-scale vocational skills training, and promote the transformation of labor skills to meet the needs of industrial transformation and upgrading.


  Risk warning: the official unemployment rate is limited or distorted, and the policy fluctuates greatly.


  catalogue


  1 there are limitations in judging the employment situation simply by official unemployment rate and other data.


  2 Other employment data reflect the current employment pressure.


  2.1 New jobs in cities and towns decreased by 2% year-on-year in the first half of the year, and the growth rate of unemployment benefits and re-employment was not optimistic.


  2.2 manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI employees’ indices are trending downward.


  2.3 Renmin University and Zhilian recruitment CIER index is still at a low level in the second quarter.


  2.4 Baidu Index job search related keywords surged in the first half of the year.


  The economic downturn will further put pressure on the job market, but the possibility of mass unemployment is very low.


  3.1 The current economic and financial situation is grim, and the labor market will be further under pressure.


  3.2 The employment pressure of some industries and key groups will be further highlighted.


  3.3 Policy recommendations


  main body


  1 there are limitations in judging the employment situation simply by official unemployment rate and other data.


  What is employment? According to the definition of the International Labour Organization, people who have worked for at least one hour in order to obtain labor remuneration or business income during the reference week of the survey, as well as people who are on vacation or temporarily suspended from work but are not working, are regarded as employed persons. Therefore, to judge the employment situation, we need to observe not only the overall unemployment rate, the unemployment rate by age, but also the ratio of job vacancies and job seekers, the average working time of employed people, the salary growth rate and the part-time employment ratio. Although China has improved its employment statistics, there are still obvious problems, which are difficult to fully reflect the real employment situation.


  1) The registered unemployment rate in cities and towns depends on the unemployed taking the initiative to register with the social and social departments, and it is only for the non-agricultural population. The data fluctuates slightly, and it fell to 3.61% in the second quarter of 2019, which is not related to the economic trend. In the early 1980s, China began to establish a registered unemployment system, which was called "unemployment statistics" at that time, and it was changed to "registered unemployment" in 1994. Urban registered unemployment rate = urban registered unemployed/(urban employees+urban registered unemployed). Registered unemployed people in cities and towns are unemployed people who are non-agricultural registered permanent residence, aged over 16 to retirement age, have the ability to work, are unemployed and ask for employment, and voluntarily register with public employment service agencies. Obviously, the registered unemployed do not include migrant workers and other permanent residents, so it is difficult to reflect the real unemployment situation. According to the data, the registered unemployment rate in cities and towns remained stable between 4.0% and 4.3% for a long time from 2002 to 2016, and continued to drop to 3.61% in June 2019 from 2017, which is obviously inconsistent with the economic growth trend.



  2) The survey unemployment rate has been officially announced since the beginning of 2018, but the survey sample of 85,000 urban families only accounts for about 0.03% of the urban employment in China, and the sampling rate is only half of 0.07% in the United States, and the sample rotation problem leads to insufficient representation of migrant workers. In view of the above-mentioned problems of registered unemployment rate in cities and towns, the National Bureau of Statistics officially implemented the national labor force sampling survey twice a year in 2005, established the monthly labor force sampling survey system in 31 big cities in 2009, and expanded it to 65 cities in 2013. In 2016, the monthly labor force survey covered all prefecture-level cities (prefectures and leagues) and sampled 120,000 families in China, and began to publish the unemployment rate data of urban surveys continuously in early 2018. Obviously different from the registered unemployment rate in cities and towns, the survey unemployment rate in cities and towns in China is based on the statistics of permanent residents, and adopts the unemployment standard of the International Labour Organization, that is, people aged 16 or above who have no job but have been actively looking for a job in the past three months.


  From the trend point of view, the survey unemployment rate in China and 31 big cities are weakly related to the trend of GDP, and the unemployment rate and GDP growth rate in 31 big cities with relatively long data period basically keep changing in the same direction. Judging from the urban survey unemployment rate, it has been fluctuating in the range of 4.8%-5.3% since January 2018, and it has been higher than 5% since January 2019 and 5.1% in June 2019. Because the urban survey unemployment rate is close to the natural unemployment rate of about 5%, the official believes that there is no periodic unemployment. From a year-on-year perspective, the urban survey unemployment rate basically continued to rise from -0.2 percentage points in January 2018 to 0.3 percentage points in June 2019.


  There are still three problems in China’s urban survey unemployment rate statistics: First, the sample is insufficient. Among the 120,000 households in the monthly labor force survey, there are about 85,000 households (household units) in cities and towns, accounting for only 0.03% of the urban employment in China. In the United States, the survey sample in the unemployment rate statistics is 60,000 households, accounting for about 0.07% of the non-agricultural employment in the United States. Second, the representativeness of the foreign resident population may be insufficient. In the survey, in order to avoid sample aging, the National Bureau of Statistics adopts sample rotation, that is, it withdraws from the survey after completing four surveys within two years, which means that investigators must find relatively stable families, and permanent migrants with strong mobility may be excluded. Moreover, when the employment situation is not good, some migrant workers return to the countryside, which makes the urban unemployment rate lower in data. Third, the sampling frame is aging. According to the local statistics department, the data of the sixth population census in 2010 is used as the primary sampling frame. Although it is updated every year, it is only a simple expansion in practice, and the newly-built community still cannot enter the sampling frame, which leads to the serious aging of the existing survey samples and poor sample representativeness.




  3) The recruitment rate depends on job seekers and employers voluntarily going to local public employment service agencies to register, and the data shows a long-term upward trend, with limited reference value. Multiplication ratio = job vacancy/number of job seekers. The data comes from public employment service agencies in 100 cities in Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security. Urban and rural workers who are of working age, have the ability to work and have employment requirements can apply for public employment services in the public employment service institutions of their permanent residence with relevant documents such as resident identity cards; Employers can consult with public employment service agencies and apply for employment services. Since the fourth quarter of 2010, the recruitment ratio has exceeded 1 and basically increased, and it has dropped to 1.22 in the second quarter of 2019, down by 0.05 and 0.01 percentage points respectively from the previous quarter and the same period last year. The relationship between the recruitment ratio and GDP change is weak, mainly because it relies on public employment service agencies at all levels to collect data by registration, and does not include new job-seeking channels such as campus recruitment, online recruitment and employment agency, which has narrow coverage and limited reference significance. As a reference, the US Department of Labor released JOLTS job vacancy data, which comes from the monthly survey of job vacancies and labor turnover rate, which surveys employers about the employment situation of enterprises, the number of vacant positions, recruitment and dismissal, etc. The survey sample covers about 16,000 American enterprises, covering most areas of the American economy. JOLT job vacancies in the United States have a wider coverage, which can better reflect the employment situation and positively change with the year-on-year growth rate of GDP.




  4) Judging the employment situation requires not only employment quantity indicators such as unemployment rate, but also employment quality indicators such as average working hours, salary growth rate and part-time job ratio. However, there are limited indicators to measure employment quality at present, and there are also sampling problems. Enterprises rarely lay off employees immediately at the beginning of the bad economic situation, but generally choose to reduce wages and working hours first. In this case, the unemployment rate in urban surveys will not rise, but the quality of employment has begun to deteriorate. According to the monthly labor force survey of the National Bureau of Statistics, in June 2019, the average weekly working hours of employed people nationwide were 45.7 hours, 0.6 hours lower than that of the previous month and 0.2 hours lower than that of the same period of last year. However, there is also the problem of insufficient representation of migrant workers due to insufficient samples and sampling deviation, and there are no more employment indicators for reference. In contrast, the US Department of Labor publishes monthly indicators such as average weekly working hours, average weekly salary, full-time and part-time employment, which are comprehensive and can comprehensively reflect the quality of employment.



  2 Other employment data reflect the current employment pressure.


  Considering the limitations of the aforementioned employment indicators, we try to infer the current employment situation from other official and unofficial data.


  2.1 New jobs in cities and towns decreased by 2% year-on-year in the first half of the year, and the growth rate of unemployment benefits and re-employment was not optimistic.


  In the first half of 2019, the number of newly employed people in cities and towns was only 7.47 million, down 2.0% year-on-year, and the target completion rate dropped to 67.0%, down 1.4 percentage points from the first half of last year. In 2003, a statistical system was established for new employment in cities and towns, and the number of new employees in cities and towns = the cumulative number of new employees in cities and towns during the reporting period-the number of natural attrition. The statistics of new employment in cities and towns are not restricted by household registration, and include various forms of employment with a wide caliber, but it cannot be ruled out that someone frequently changes jobs many times in a year. In July 2018, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the number of newly employed urban workers reached a stage high of 2.9%, and then the trend declined. At the beginning of 2019, the cumulative number of newly employed urban workers began to grow negatively, reaching 7.47 million in June, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%. The target completion rate was 67.0%, which was 1.4 percentage points lower than the 68.4% in January-June 2018.


  In the first quarter of 2019, the year-on-year growth rate of the number of people receiving unemployment insurance increased for five consecutive quarters. The number of unemployed people in cities and towns re-employed decreased by 9.1% from January to May 2019, and the number of people with employment difficulties decreased by 4.2%. The recipients of unemployment insurance benefits are employees of urban enterprises and institutions. In the first quarter of 2019, the number of people receiving unemployment insurance benefits was 2.27 million, up 1.8% from the previous month and the same period of last year. Among them, the growth rate of the previous month turned from negative to positive, and the year-on-year growth rate increased for five consecutive quarters. The number of unemployed people re-employed in cities and towns was 2.09 million from January to May 2019, a sharp decrease of 9.1% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate dropped sharply for two consecutive months. In September 2018, the year-on-year growth rate of people with employment difficulties reached a high of 16.2% in recent years, and then began to decline rapidly. In February 2019, the year-on-year growth rate began to turn negative. From January to May 2019, the number of people with employment difficulties was 690,000, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%.






  2.2 manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI employees’ indices are trending downward.


  The PMI employee index reflects the views of enterprises on the scale of current employees compared with the previous period. In June 2019, the manufacturing PMI employee index fell to 46.9%, the lowest since March 2009; Non-manufacturing PMI employees index fell to 48.2%. PMI employee index is one of five sub-indices of PMI, among which manufacturing PMI started to be counted in 2005, with a sample of 3,000 enterprises; Non-manufacturing PMI began to be counted in 2007, targeting 4,000 sample enterprises. 50% is the critical point of expansion and contraction, and a PMI employee index of less than 50% means that more business leaders believe that the number of production and operation personnel is lower than that of a month ago.


  Judging from the manufacturing PMI employee index, the manufacturing PMI employee index has been below 50% for 27 consecutive months since March 2017; In June 2019, it fell to 46.9%, falling for three consecutive months, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month and 2.1 percentage points from the same period last year. Among them, the PMI employee index of large, medium and small enterprises in manufacturing industry began to decline in the second half of 2018, and it was 47.0%, 45.9% and 48.3% respectively in June 2019, down 2.0, 2.4 and 1.9 percentage points respectively year-on-year. Medium-sized enterprises not only had a lower absolute level, but also had a larger decline.


  Judging from the non-manufacturing PMI employee index, the non-manufacturing PMI employee index began to remain below 50% in September 2018, and fell to 48.2% in June 2019, falling for two consecutive months, down 0.1 and 0.7 percentage points respectively from the previous month and the same period last year. Among them, the construction industry PMI employee index began to decline rapidly from 54.1% in March 2019, and fell to 50.4% in June 2019. The service industry PMI employee index continued to be below 50% after July 2014, and began to decline rapidly from 49.7% in August 2018, and fell to 47.9% in June 2019.




  Similarly, in the questionnaire survey of urban depositors of the central bank, the employment perception index and employment expectation index in the second quarter of 2019 were 44.2% and 52.3%, respectively, down 1.6 and 1.5 percentage points from the previous month. The questionnaire survey of urban depositors is a quarterly survey system established by the People’s Bank of China since 1999. Every quarter, 20,000 depositors are selected from 50 cities (large, medium and small) in China as the survey objects, and the employment feeling index and employment expectation index reflect the views of depositors on employment. From the first quarter to the second quarter of 2018, both the employment feeling index and the employment expectation index stopped rising and declined in fluctuations. In the second quarter of 2019, the employment experience index was 44.2%, down 1.6 and 0.8 percentage points respectively from the previous quarter and the same period of last year; The employment expectation index was 52.3%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month and flat year-on-year. In the second quarter of 2019, the proportion of people who chose "good situation and easy employment" in the employment experience index was 15.5%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month and flat year-on-year.




  2.3 Renmin University and Zhilian recruitment CIER index is still at a low level in the second quarter.


  The CIER index is the ratio of recruitment demand to the number of applicants on the Zhaopin recruitment website, which was 1.89 in the second quarter of 2019, although it rose slightly year-on-year, it was still at a low level. CIER index is a China employment market prosperity index jointly launched by the Employment Research Institute of Renmin University of China and Zhaopin. It is obtained by analyzing the data of Zhaopin, and it is a good quality and long-term data in the current unofficial employment statistics. CIER index = total recruitment demand/total number of applicants, with 1 as the watershed. When it is greater than 1, it indicates that the demand for labor in the job market is more than the supply of labor in the market, the competition in the job market tends to ease, and the job market is prosperous. In the second quarter of 2019, the CIER index was 1.89, up 0.21 and 0.01 respectively from the previous quarter and the same period last year. From the perspective of the chain, the increase was mainly due to seasonal factors. After entering the second quarter, the demand for employment increased significantly, and the number of people in need increased by 15.7%. After the peak of rework and job-hopping in the Spring Festival, the growth of job-seeking supply slowed down, and the number of job applicants increased by 2.7%. From a year-on-year perspective, the CIER index in the second quarter of 2019 remained at a low level since the second quarter of 2015.


  In terms of regions, the CIER indices in the eastern, central, western and northeastern regions in the second quarter of 2019 were 1.18, 1.14, 0.92 and 0.66, respectively, which all declined year-on-year, and the eastern region experienced the largest decline; In terms of cities, the CIER indices of first-tier, new-tier, second-tier and third-tier cities are 0.60, 0.94, 1.18 and 1.25, respectively, and the second-tier and third-tier cities have the largest decline; In terms of the nature of enterprises, the CIER index of private enterprises and state-owned enterprises in the second quarter of 2019 was 0.94 and 0.52, respectively, showing a downward trend year-on-year. According to the explanation of the Employment Research Institute of Renmin University of China, the average value of the subentry CIER index is not equal to the overall CIER index, mainly because there may be multiple deliveries by job seekers, and the sum of the subentry job seekers is greater than the overall number of job seekers. In the second quarter of 2019, the CIER indices of the eastern, central, western and northeastern regions were 1.18, 1.14, 0.92 and 0.66, respectively, with the highest employment boom in the eastern region and the lowest in the northeastern region; Compared with the same period of last year, it decreased by 0.28, 0.19, 0.19 and 0.07 respectively, and the employment situation in the east deteriorated the fastest. In the second quarter of 2019, the CIER indices of first-tier, new-tier, second-tier and third-tier cities were 0.60, 0.94, 1.18 and 1.25, respectively, down by 0.11, 0.03, 0.34 and 0.31 percentage points year-on-year, with the second-tier and third-tier cities having the largest decline.In the second quarter of 2019, the CIER indexes of private enterprises, joint ventures, joint-stock enterprises, state-owned enterprises, listed companies and wholly foreign-owned enterprises were 0.94, 0.82, 0.70, 0.52, 0.73 and 0.69, respectively, down by 0.04, 0.05, 0.15, 0.35, 0.29 and 0.23 respectively.




  2.4 Baidu Index job search related keywords surged in the first half of the year.


  Baidu index can reflect the active search demand of netizens, and the search volume of keywords such as "looking for a job", "recruitment", "recruitment information" and "unemployment benefits" increased by 482%, 492%, 80% and 122? %, the employment pressure is prominent, and the employment situation is more severe than in previous years. Baidu Index takes the search volume of netizens in Baidu as the data base and keywords as the statistical object, and calculates the weighted sum of the search frequency of each keyword in Baidu web search, which can reflect the active search demand of netizens. 1) "Looking for a job": The Baidu search index of "looking for a job" keywords in 2015-2018 all rose to the peak of around 40,000 after the Spring Festival, with obvious periodicity. In February, April and June, 2019, the search index of "looking for a job" reached the peak of 274,000, 314,000 and 114,000 respectively, which fluctuated violently. As of July 27, 2019, the overall daily average increased by 482% year-on-year. 2) "Recruitment": The Baidu search index of the word "recruitment" largely represents the search will of job seekers. The index has soared since May 2019, rising from less than 10,000 to the current peak of 161,000, up 492% year-on-year in the past 90 days, reflecting the increased difficulty in finding a job and the prominent employment pressure. 3) "Recruitment Information": "Recruitment Information" can be used to represent the job-seeking needs of blue-collar workers. The peak after the Spring Festival in 2019 is nearly 30 times that of 2015-2018, and the unemployment problem of blue-collar and migrant workers is stronger than in previous years. Since July,The index experienced the second small peak in the year, and the daily average in the past 90 days increased by 80% year-on-year. 4) "Conditions for receiving unemployment benefits": The search volume of "Conditions for receiving unemployment benefits" has soared since March 2019, and the daily average value of the search index from March to July is about 2.3 times that of the same period of last year, with a year-on-year increase of 122% in the past 90 days, which means that the number of unemployed people has increased and the employment situation has deteriorated. Therefore, the current employment situation is more severe than in previous years, and the number of job seekers seeking unemployment protection and switching to various recruitment and recruitment websites has increased significantly.






  The economic downturn will further put pressure on the job market, but the possibility of mass unemployment is very low.


  3.1 The current economic and financial situation is grim, and the labor market will be further under pressure.


  The current economic and financial situation is grim. In the second quarter of 2019, the GDP growth rate dropped to a new low of 6.2%, down 0.2 percentage points from the first quarter. Moreover, the impact of the trade war escalated again in May and the intensive introduction of real estate financing tightening policies has not yet appeared. Recently, leading economic indicators have declined, such as real estate sales, land purchase and funding sources, PMI orders and PMI export orders. Moreover, the economic and financial structure is deteriorating. For example, the proportion of medium and long-term loans of enterprises has declined, while the proportion of short-term loans and short-term financing has increased; PPI goes down, and corporate profits decline. In the second quarter of 2019, the real growth rate of GDP was 6.2%. After a short period of stabilization in the first quarter, it was 0.2 percentage points lower than that in the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year, the lowest point since the quarterly accounting of GDP was implemented in 1992, and it will go down again. The main reasons for the economic downturn are: the short-term inventory recovery is suppressed by the second half of the financial leverage cycle, the export effect of Sino-US trade friction appears, and the real estate investment inflection point appears due to the continuous tightening of real estate regulation. Although the issuance of special bonds has made great efforts, the land revenue has declined, and it is expected that the rebound of infrastructure will be limited, making it difficult to hedge the downward trend of the economy. From the data in June, although economic indicators such as consumption and investment have stabilized, they are still in a downturn, and leading indicators have declined. Among them, the PMI new order index was 49.6% in June, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; Real estate sales in June was -2.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points from the previous month, but it was still negative.And recently, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have comprehensively tightened major financing channels such as bank loans, trusts and overseas debts, and the real estate financing situation in the second half of the year is grim; The medium-and long-term loans of newly-increased enterprises were 375.3 billion yuan in June, a year-on-year decrease of 24.8 billion yuan. The proportion of medium-and long-term loans of enterprises fluctuated at a low level, the loan structure deteriorated, and financial institutions’ distrust of enterprises increased. (See the report of Evergrande Research Institute in July, Born in Worry-Macro Outlook in 2019, Fully Estimating the Severity of the Current Economic and Financial Situation-Fully Interpreting the Economic and Financial Data in June).




  Although the continuous reduction of labor supply will alleviate the employment pressure, the economic slowdown will lead to a further slowdown in labor demand and further pressure on the job market, but it is unlikely that large-scale unemployment will occur. The working-age population aged 15-59 in China reached a peak of 940 million in 2011, and decreased by 4.29 million annually from 2012 to 2018, with a total decrease of 30.06 million. The labor participation rate (economically active population/population aged 15 -64) gradually decreased to 76.2% in 2018, and the scale of labor supply continued to decrease. The economically active population in China reached a peak of 806.94 million in 2016, and the total number of employed people reached a peak of 776.4 million in 2017. From the perspective of the relationship between economic growth and employment, due to the larger economy and the transformation of economic structure to service industry, although the number of new urban jobs created by unit GDP growth has increased significantly, the downward economic growth has led to a significant slowdown in the growth rate of urban employees and non-agricultural employees. In 2011-2018, the number of newly created urban jobs increased from 1.29 million to 2.06 million, and the number of newly created urban jobs increased from 1.29 million to 1.49 million, which was basically stable in the last three years. The number of newly created non-agricultural jobs decreased from 1.74 million to 960,000, the growth rate of urban employees decreased from 3.54% to 2.25%, and the growth rate of non-agricultural employees decreased from 3.43% to 1.11%. However, as long as the policy is properly handled and no major systemic risks occur, the downside of subsequent economic growth is relatively limited.The possibility of mass unemployment is very low.




  3.2 The employment pressure of some industries and key groups will be further highlighted.


  In terms of industries, the employment in manufacturing industry is mainly affected by the downturn in exports and the decline in profits of PPI companies. The construction industry is affected by the limited space for infrastructure recovery and the decline in real estate investment, and the follow-up is not optimistic; According to Zhaopin’s recruitment data, the recruitment demand in the financial industry decreased by 39.7% and 37.0% in the first and second quarters respectively, and the Internet/e-commerce decreased by 22.5% and 13.6% respectively. 1) manufacturing industry. In 2017, the employment of manufacturing industry accounted for 26.3% of the employment of urban non-private units. Affected by the global economic downturn and Sino-US economic and trade frictions, exports continued to be sluggish. In the first half of 2019, exports were 0.1% year-on-year, down 9.8 percentage points from 2018; Among them, exports to the United States were -8.1% year-on-year, down 19.4 percentage points from the whole year of 2018. According to estimates, a 25% tariff on $250 billion of goods will affect the employment of 1.99 million people; If a 25% tariff is imposed on $550 billion of goods, it will affect the employment of 4.2 million people, especially the employment of manufacturing industries such as electromechanical and machinery, and the industrial chain is shifting from China to Viet Nam and other places. From the perspective of corporate profits, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by -2.4% year-on-year from January to June 2019, down by 19.6 percentage points compared with the same period of last year. The decline in corporate profits will suppress manufacturing employment. 2) Construction industry. In 2017, the employment in construction industry accounted for 15.0% and 18.9% of the employees in urban non-private units and the number of migrant workers respectively.From January to June, the investment in infrastructure (including water, electricity and gas) was 3.0% year-on-year, and it is expected to continue to rise with the support of the new regulations on special debts; However, the land revenue has fallen sharply, tax reduction and fee reduction have made local governments’ finances tight, and the continuation of local hidden debts has been strictly controlled, and there is limited room for infrastructure investment to rebound. From January to June, the growth rate of investment in real estate development dropped to 10.8%. Weak sales, negative growth in land purchase, and constrained financing of housing enterprises mean that real estate investment will continue to decline slowly in the future. 3) Financial industry and IT industry. According to Zhaopin’s recruitment data, the recruitment demand in the financial industry decreased by 39.7% and 37.0% respectively in the first and second quarters of 2019, especially in the situation of strict financial supervision. Internet/e-commerce recruitment demand decreased by 22.5% and 13.6% respectively. In addition, the demand for real estate/construction/building materials/engineering and computer software in the second quarter decreased by 15.9% and 13.9% respectively.






  From the perspective of key groups, the scale of college graduates continues to hit a new high, the growth rate of migrant workers slows down but their age is aging, the scale of "4050" personnel rises, and the employment pressure is greater. In terms of college graduates, the number of college graduates (including graduate students) climbed from 880,000 in 1999 to 8.34 million in 2019. Considering that the enrollment of ordinary colleges and universities (including graduate students) increased from 8.03 million to 8.77 million in 2015-2018, the scale of college graduates will continue to reach a new high in the next few years. Because some students’ skills are difficult to adapt to the employment requirements, the pressure of "difficult employment" continues to rise. In terms of migrant workers, the scale of migrant workers increased from 240 million in 2010 to 290 million in 2018, and the growth rate slowed down from 5.4% to 0.6%. However, migrant workers with junior high school education or below are more aging and face greater unemployment risks in the economic downturn. From 2008 to 2018, the proportion of migrant workers over 50 years old rose from 11.4% to 22.4%, and the proportion of 41-50 years old rose from 18.6% to 25.5%. In terms of "4050" personnel, the scale and proportion of "4050" personnel have basically continued to rise, and they are old, with low academic qualifications and single skills, and are prone to long-term unemployment. Among them, from 2003 to 2018, the proportion of women aged 40-59 to women aged 15-59 increased from 38.0% to 47.5%, and the proportion of men aged 50-59 to men aged 15-59 increased from 16.4% to 22.3%.Together, the proportion of the working-age population aged 15-59 rose from 27.1% to 34.6%.




  3.3 Policy recommendations


  Generally speaking, in the face of the complicated and severe internal and external situations such as Sino-US trade friction, high macro leverage ratio, increasing downward pressure on the economy, and the critical period of reform and opening up, it is necessary to strengthen countercyclical adjustment through fiscal and monetary policies, and also to maintain strategic strength to prevent flooding. The most important thing is to unswervingly promote reform and opening up, further liberalize market access, restore entrepreneurial confidence, stimulate new growth points such as new economy and service industry, and promote a virtuous circle of economic growth and employment increase. Specifically:


  First, further vigorously optimize the business environment, promote the implementation of tax reduction and fee reduction, and smooth financing channels, so as to give full play to the role of enterprises as the main body of stable employment, especially private and small and medium-sized enterprises. Private and small and medium-sized enterprises are the main body to attract employment, but the business environment has deteriorated in the past few years, including being injured to some extent in the past deleveraging, capacity reduction and environmental protection storms, and the continued downturn in exports has increased their survival pressure, coupled with poor financing channels and liquidity stratification. Although the government has issued a number of policies to bail out private and small and medium-sized enterprises, the effect of the policies remains to be seen. Therefore, the proactive fiscal policy should continue to promote the implementation of tax reduction and fee reduction, and the more profitable enterprises are, the more they should "release water to raise fish". Monetary policy should continue to unblock the transmission mechanism from wide money to wide credit, increase the structural reform of financial supply side, and intensify efforts to solve the problems of financing difficulties and high financing for private and small and medium-sized enterprises. In addition, we should continue to vigorously promote innovation and entrepreneurship, increase entrepreneurial support, and promote employment through entrepreneurship.


  Second, increase the opening up of the service industry, especially the financial, educational, medical and telecommunications industries; Accelerate the construction of metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations with big cities as the core, increase the density and frequency of economically active population to promote agglomeration, and give full play to the role of service industry in absorbing employment. In 2012, the number of employees in the secondary industry in China reached its peak, and then it completely relied on the tertiary industry to absorb the labor transferred from the primary industry and the secondary industry. In 2018, the proportion of employment in the primary, secondary and tertiary industries in China was 26.1%, 27.6% and 46.3% respectively. The proportion of employment in the tertiary industry was far from the average level of 74.5% in high-income economies, and there was a broad space for employment. On the one hand, it is necessary to increase the opening-up of the service industry at home and abroad, and vigorously deregulate it. At present, China’s manufacturing industry is basically open to the outside world, while its service industry is relatively low. There is still a lot of room for opening to the outside world in the fields of automobile, finance, high-end clothing, energy, architectural design, medical care, education, telecommunications, internet, press and publication, radio and television, express delivery and so on. On the other hand, the development of most service industries needs agglomeration more than industrial development. We should accelerate the construction of metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations with big cities as the core, promote the further agglomeration of industries and population, and form an industrial division system in which core cities develop high-end service industries, small and medium-sized cities develop manufacturing industries and some service industries.


  The third is to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, not only to prevent excessive financial bubble, but also to prevent active puncture from causing major financial risks. Recently, a series of tightening policies for real estate financing have been introduced intensively, from overseas debt, trust and credit to comprehensive tightening. At present, on the one hand, it is necessary to prevent money from releasing water to stimulate the real estate bubble, on the other hand, it is also necessary to prevent active puncture from causing major financial risks. If it is punctured actively, the Sino-US trade friction will not continue. Ten crises and nine real estates, the housing market value in China is about 300 trillion yuan, the stock market is about 60 trillion yuan, and the bond market is about 70 trillion yuan. Old-fashioned seeks the country to exchange time for space, stabilize land prices and stabilize expectations, and use the time window to promote housing system reform and long-term mechanism. At the same time, normal business should be allowed to develop, and irregular business should be carried out step by step, with the front door open and the back door closed, rather than across the board. At present, it is especially necessary to support M&A financing. The merger of unfavorable assets or problematic projects between enterprises is the main force to resolve bad and financial risks, and it is impossible to rely on the state to resolve them.


  Fourth, solidly promote the large-scale enrollment expansion of higher vocational colleges, implement large-scale vocational skills training, and promote the transformation of labor skills to meet the needs of industrial transformation and upgrading. According to the requirements of the Government Work Report of 2019 on the large-scale enrollment expansion of 1 million people in higher vocational colleges, in May, the Ministry of Education and other six departments jointly issued the Implementation Plan for the Special Work of Enrollment Expansion in Higher Vocational Colleges, emphasizing that "developing higher vocational education is a strategic move to alleviate the current employment pressure and solve the shortage of highly skilled talents", which is mainly aimed at fresh high school graduates, secondary vocational graduates, retired soldiers, laid-off workers and migrant workers. In the same month, the General Office of the State Council issued the Action Plan for Vocational Skills Upgrading (2019-2021), which further emphasized that "vocational skills training is a key measure to maintain employment stability and alleviate structural employment contradictions", and required that more than 50 million subsidized vocational skills trainings be conducted in three years, including more than 15 million in 2019.



This article first appeared on WeChat WeChat official account: Zeping Macro. The content of the article belongs to the author’s personal opinion and does not represent Hexun.com’s position. Investors should operate accordingly, at their own risk.

(Editor: Wang Zhiqiang HF013)

Ceng Guoxiang out! Wu Junru became a director? How many secrets does "YaoYaoLing" have?


Special feature of 1905 film network   The film that will land in the Lunar New Year archives on December 29th recently held its first press conference in Beijing. Chen Kexin and Wu Junru appeared as producer and director respectively, and with the blessing of Mahua FunAge, the national expectation value of this film increased greatly.

 

I just suddenly felt something was wrong, huh? Isn’t Ceng Guoxiang the director of this film? How did it become Wu Junru’s directorial debut? Isn’t she the producer+starring? In addition, it has been rumored that the starring papi sauce is also a screenwriter of the film. How did this suddenly change people?


Papi sauce’s real name is Jiang Yilei

 

Of course, at that time, the film was also called "Sister Ling made a scene in your house", but no matter from the main lineup or the previous promotional film, it was definitely the same movie as "YaoYaoYaoLing".

 

We all have good memories. Don’t think that if we change our names, we won’t know you!

 

Here, Brother Dao just wants to ask the film side, who made this film and who made it up? After all, "YaoYaoYaoLing" is about to be released in the mainland, but the audience has to spend real money to buy tickets, so how can they have the right to know?

 

So, when did this Rashomon begin? Come on, draw a key point:

 

Some netizens found out that the words "New Works Produced by Chen Kexin and Directed by Ceng Guoxiang" were left in the synopsis column on the Douban platform of "YaoYaoling".

 

The screenshot of the watercress information of the earliest "Sister Ling makes a scene in your house" was not intercepted, but when some netizens took a screenshot the day before yesterday, the name of "Sister Ling makes a scene in your house" has changed to another name of "Yaoyaoling", and the director of the film has turned into Wu Junru, but in the synopsis, it still says "the new work directed by Ceng Guoxiang", and the screenwriter column is still papi sauce (real name is Jiang Yilei).

 

The previous Douban entry of YaoYaoLing

 

The latest entry of YaoYaoLing

 

Of course, the synopsis of Douban has been updated to the latest version, and the writers have been replaced by Zhou Yunhai, Muchun Zha and Wang Yixing.

 

Ceng Guoxiang’s studio photos exposed by various actors were always there from the beginning of filming to the end of filming.

 

Boot photo

 

Studio photo

 

Killing photos

 

Zhang Yi, the leading actor, once wrote an article in his WeChat WeChat official account, mentioning that Ceng Guoxiang was the film director. At that time, the title of Chen Kexin and Wu Junru were more clearly defined, so how could it not arouse the speculation of us "people who eat melons"?

 

On January 27th, 2017, actor Zhang Yi made it clear in his New Year message that he had devoted himself to the filming of "Sister Ling makes a scene in your house", which was produced by Chen Kexin and Wu Junru and directed by Ceng Guoxiang.

 

As the star of the film, it is impossible for Zhang Yi to sign a contract. He has been filming on the set. I still don’t know who the director is, right?

 

Love Zhang Yi, this "real hammer" has not been deleted.

 

If all this is not enough to prove that Ceng Guoxiang is the director of this film, then look at the photo carefully, and you will find the words [Director: Ceng Guoxiang] impressively in the photo.

 

Then how did Ceng Guoxiang get out?

 

Conjecture 1

 

The film style can’t be discussed properly, the director loses the dominant position in the film, and Ceng Guoxiang is forced or takes the initiative to out.

 

In April this year, before the screening of the feature film, there was a propaganda film "Sister Ling made a scene in Meng Gui Fang". At that time, the name of the director did not appear, and the positions of Chen Kexin and Wu Junru were only producer. It seems that at that time, the film has decided to abandon Ceng Guoxiang, but as for who will take over, it has not been decided yet. Of course, this is also a wild guess by Brother Dao. If it is right, it is purely a coincidence.

 

This earlier version of the promo is quite different from the first trailer recently exposed by YaoYaoYaoLing. "Ling Jie makes a scene in Meng Gui Fang" is full of Hong Kong flavor, full of Hong Kong retro style. YaoYaoLing is closer to the aesthetic habits of mainland audiences.

 

In fact, as early as April 9th this year, Ceng Guoxiang accepted a question from the 1905 Film Network at the Hong Kong Celebration. At that time, he clarified that "Sister Ling made a scene in Meng Gui Fang" was not his work, and this collaboration with Chen Kexin was just to help. Ceng Guoxiang also said that as a creator, it is most important to find the story he wants to shoot, and he prefers to shoot the story he wants to express.

 

From this point of view, it is also possible that Ceng Guoxiang lost the leading role of "Sister Ling makes a scene in your house", which led to the final style and direction of the film, which was quite different from Ceng Guoxiang’s expectation. In the end, Ceng Guoxiang could only give up the film voluntarily.

 

Conjecture 2

 

There was a help agreement before, saying, "we are logging tired", and the director changed people?

 

Two days ago, at the press conference of YaoYaoLing, Chen Kexin and Wu Junru kept silent about the beginning and end of Ceng Guoxiang out, and they shared the interesting story of shooting YaoYaoLing — — Wu Junru laughed and said that the couple had quarreled for an hour in the bathroom on the set because of the film, while Chen Kexin admitted that during the process of "supervising the work", parents often felt like protecting their children.


As for Ceng Guoxiang, in addition to publicly thanking her husband Chen Kexin for his advice, Wu Junru singled out another person who gave him a lot of help, that is, Ceng Guoxiang, a new Hong Kong director.

 

Most mainland audiences are familiar with the name Ceng Guoxiang, which should begin with the painful youth love film July and An Sheng, which was a great success in 2016. This work also helped Zhou Dongyu and Sandra win the Golden Horse Award for Best Actress, and director Ceng Guoxiang also won many awards and nominations. Chen Kexin is one of the producers of July and An Sheng. At that time, there were various reports praising Chen Kexin for taking the new director.

 

When YaoYaoLing was also called "Sister Ling made a scene in Meng Gui Fang", many media reported that Chen Kexin once again escorted the new film directed by Ceng Guoxiang.


Now, the play is finished and will be released, but Ceng Guoxiang has changed from a director to a friend to help!

 

In Ceng Guoxiang’s Weibo message, many fans who eat melons also raised the same question. Ceng Guoxiang also responded to this matter in Weibo: "We are all a family, please call me whenever you have something". When we later asked the film propagandist for proof, the other party also gave the answer of "family".

 

In the film industry, especially in Hong Kong, there are still many stories about "one family" helping each other. Take Chen Kexin, the producer of this film, as an example. When he created the film, he personally certified the Hong Kong director Liu Weiqiang to help him a lot. In the "Golden Harvest Prosperity" in the 1980s, Sammo Hung, as the eldest brother, also gave Jackie Chan and others similar assistance in the early creative stage. It can be said that the friendship of "family" can be regarded as a special "culture" passed down in this circle.

 

Only this time "YaoYaoYaoLing" is different. After all, at the beginning of shooting, the starring role of this film has been sealed, and Ceng Guoxiang is the director. However, on the eve of the release, the director changed the controlling person from the film to a passerby who helped, which is not the same as the so-called clear help between the two sides. However, it is obviously unreasonable for the film side to explain it with only one sentence: "we are logging tired".

 

The director was changed, which is nothing new in the film circle. In the early years, there were media reports that Chen Kexin replaced the original director Chen Desen, and Liu Weiqiang was the top one. However, rumors are always difficult to get a positive response from the parties, but time has proved everything. No matter what is right or wrong, the director of guillotines is Liu Weiqiang.

 

"Family" is a good word, and "family" seems to be kind to direct a movie. But today, when we pay more and more attention to intellectual property rights, even a "family" wants to know how everyone divides their work in the movie and doesn’t want to bury anyone’s talent.

 

For what reason did Ceng Guoxiang, who has been following the "Sister Ling" crew to the final stage, quit this project? Since he helped a lot, why didn’t the director Wu Junru+Ceng Guoxiang? How much did Wu Junru shoot and how much did Ceng Guoxiang help?

 

Brother Dao thinks that the film has an obligation to explain to the public that, after all, the audience is the one who ultimately spends money, and the director is also an important indicator for the audience to enter the cinema.

 

Finally, I also wish the YaoYaoLing, which will be released in the mainland on December 29th, a big sale.


Bollywood: the tradition subverted by New Year’s Action


Early Indian films:

"Caravan" warms a generation in China. The episode of "Wanderer" is widely sung. 

    Indian films have a long history with China audiences. In 1955, The Wanderer directed by Raj Kapoor was translated by changchun film studio and premiered in China, becoming the first film to introduce China. The film was re-released in China in 1978 and swept the country. The episodes "Song of Raz" and "Song of Rita" were widely sung. Since the reform and opening up, a large number of Indian song and dance love movies such as Caravan, Nuli and Cinnabar Love have entered China, especially Caravan, which has a far-reaching influence. aruna irani’s dance and Lata’s singing have warmed the hearts of a generation. After entering the new century, Hollywood movies are coming on a large scale, and Indian movies, together with movies from other countries, are gradually pushed to the edge, which leads to the China audience’s impression of it not being updated in time. All this will be improved with the signing of the China-India film cooperation agreement in 2014.

    At the beginning of its birth, Indian films were dominated by myths and ancient themes, such as King Harish Chandra, Salandri and Light of Asia. In 1931, India’s first sound film "Aram Allah" appeared, interspersed with 10 songs and several dance scenes, which was a great success, and then set off a wave of musical production. Because Indians have a special liking for song and dance performances since ancient times (classical Sanskrit dramas and various folk dramas carry a large number of song and dance performances), and singing and dancing are also a part of their daily life, song and dance passages have since become an indispensable element of Indian films, and the films with wide influence include Wanderer, Caravan, Warm and Warm People, Bollywood Love for Life and Death and so on.

    Nevertheless, there are still many different kinds of films in the history of Indian film. In 1930s, Indian filmmakers studied western artistic techniques and made many films to explore social problems. After the victory of World War II, films such as Doctor Kodi Hua by Sendaram and Son of the Earth by K·A· Abbas represented the rise of Indian national films. In the 1950s and 1960s, satya Kit Rey, BimalRoy and others started the Indian "New Film" movement, focusing on subjects closely related to the people, and won international prizes one after another. This tradition was inherited by "neo-realism" and "social school" writers and lasted until the 1980s and 1990s. Later, historical films and action films with high entertainment value, such as Ashoka and Terrorists, caused great waves in India.

    We often refer to Indian movies as Bollywood movies, but this is not an accurate name. The word "Bollywood" is a combination of "Hollywood" and the first letter of Mumbai’s old English name "Bombay". At first, it refers to the film production base in Mumbai, while "Bollywood film" refers to Hindi films produced here. Indian film industry is composed of Hindi films, Tamil films, Bengali films and other production bases. After the rise in the 1920s and 1930s, the short-lived crisis during World War II, the post-war prosperity, the depression in the 1980s and the resurgence in the 1990s, it has exerted great influence on the culture of the Middle East, Africa, Southeast Asia and even the whole world.

After 80s, the couple sold milk tea and started a listed company.

Successful listing does not mean that you can sit back and relax. How to make the brand develop for a long time after listing is the beginning of the test.

This article was originally published by Hongcan.com (ID: hongcan18), by Jian Yuhao; Editor: Jing Xue.

On April 23rd, Chabaidao (2555.HK) was officially listed on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. However, the performance on the first day of listing was not ideal. On the morning of 23rd, Chabaidao opened at HK$ 15.74 per share, which was lower than the issue price of HK$ 17.5. At the close, Chabaidao recorded HK$ 12.80 per share, with a market value of only HK$ 18.914 billion. In intraday trading, the share price of Chabaidao once fell to HK$ 10.80/share.

Time goes back to a week ago. On April 15, the first day of the public offering of Chabaidao, it attracted attention because the public offering did not achieve full subscription. In addition, at that time, Chabaidao did not introduce cornerstone investors. Many investors have said that if a company with a valuation of tens of billions does not introduce cornerstone investors, it may mean that the valuation of this enterprise is too expensive, or institutional investors are not optimistic about the future profit prospects of the enterprise. 

Although it was successfully listed, there are different opinions in the industry about "the second share of new tea". On the one hand, the successful listing is a milestone achievement for Chabaidao. However, in the eyes of some people in the industry, listing is not once and for all. In the increasingly competitive new tea circuit, there are still many uncertainties in the future development of Chabaidao. 

After 01.80, the couple sold milk tea with a net worth of over 14 billion.

According to public reports, the founder of Chabaidao, Wang Xiaolong, and his wife, Liu Yuhong, were both born in the 1980s. Wang Xiaolong was a senior tea artist and his wife was a tea lover. Because they have accumulated rich tea knowledge and practical experience in their past work and life, they started the entrepreneurial experience of a tea shop. 

In 2008, near Wenjiang No.2 Middle School in Chengdu, Sichuan, the first Chabaidao opened. This store, which is less than 20 square meters, is mainly for students with low spending power, and mainly sells powdered milk tea in the form of foreign belts. 

At that time, compared with the hot demand of portable brewing milk tea, the existing tea was still in its infancy. The emergence of "Tea Hundred Ways" just fills this blank. With good products and affordable prices, it has successfully attracted the attention of students’ consumer groups. The blank of the market itself, coupled with the advantages of site selection, enabled Wang and his wife to successfully earn the first bucket of gold. A year later, they opened a second branch on the campus of Southwestern University of Finance and Economics (Liulin Campus). 

In 2010, the trademark "Tea Hundred Roads" was officially registered. In the same year, two major desktop milk tea brands, Diandian and coco, successively entered the mainland for development. In the following years, a number of existing tea brands such as Xicha, Lujiao Lane and Naixue Tea began to rise, and new Chinese tea officially entered the stage of branding and chain development. 

△ Image source: Chabaidao official little red book 

In 2016, Chabaidao opened its franchise in Chengdu for the first time, upgraded its stores and started its brand operation. This year, the number of stores in Chabaidao exceeded 100. 

Generally speaking, the development speed of Tea Hundred Roads in the early stage is not fast, and the sense of existence is not strong. 

It was not until 2018 that this situation began to change. This year, Chabaidao began to aim at the whole country, which opened the expansion of the whole country, and the rapid growth of Chabaidao began to enter the investor’s field of vision. 

In May and June, 2023, Chabaidao successively received two rounds of financing totaling 970 million yuan, which was led by Lanxin Asia, followed by many well-known investment institutions such as Zhengxin Valley, Grassroots Zhiben, CICC and Tomato Capital, with a post-investment valuation of 17.6 billion yuan. 

According to the latest prospectus information of Chabaidao, Wang Hao and Liu Yuhong hold about 81.75% of the shares of Chabaidao. According to the valuation of 18 billion, their net worth has reached about 14.5 billion yuan. Wang Hao and Liu Yuhong also made the Hurun Report in 2023 and became the new "dark horse" in the rich list in 2023. 

02.99% of the revenue depends on franchisees, and the pressure on the supply chain is not small.

Looking back on the development of Tea Hundred Roads, we can see that joining in business is an important driving force for the rapid development of Tea Hundred Roads. 

According to the prospectus, as of December 31st, 2023, Chabaidao has opened 8,016 stores in China, covering 31 provinces and cities across the country, achieving comprehensive coverage of all provinces and county-level cities in China. Among them, the proportion of franchise stores accounted for 99%. 

On the surface, it seems that Chabaidao is a direct consumer-oriented business, but in fact, Chabaidao is similar to Mixue Ice City, and it is also a supply chain company wearing a milk tea coat. Selling goods and equipment to franchisees is the core business of Chabaidao. 

According to the prospectus, from 2021 to 2023, Chabaidao achieved revenues of 3.625 billion yuan, 4.197 billion yuan and 5.659 billion yuan through franchise stores, accounting for more than 99% of the total revenue; Among them, the income from selling goods and equipment to franchise stores accounts for about 95%, and the gross profit margin of this business is also maintained at about 32%. 

△ Chart source: screenshot of Cha Baidao prospectus 

The core of this business model, similar to S2B2C, is to reduce the operating costs of franchisees and improve the overall profitability through the advantages of supply chain and standardized processes. 

However, unlike the self-built supply chain of Mixue Ice City, Chabaidao mainly relies on third-party suppliers and other business partners to provide raw materials and services for it. 

According to the prospectus, in 2023, the procurement ratio of Chabaidao from its top five external suppliers (including dairy products, sugar, juice and other ingredients, packaging materials, etc.) was as high as 36.6%. 

△ Chart source: screenshot of Cha Baidao prospectus 

Perhaps it is also realized that there is no small risk in relying on third-party suppliers. Therefore, in the past several rounds of financing, Cha Baidao has repeatedly mentioned that the funds raised are mainly used to improve the overall operational capability and strengthen the supply chain capability. 

At present, Chabaidao has established a supply chain center covering every key link of supply chain management from product development, procurement, logistics to after-sales service and quality control. At the same time, Sichuan Tea Co., Ltd. was established to provide brand logistics and distribution services. 

In addition, Chabaidao and Bawang Chaji jointly established Sichuan Chabenyuan New Materials Technology Co., Ltd.. The company’s business scope includes research and development of new materials technology, manufacturing of bio-based materials, standardization services, sales and manufacturing of plastic products, sales of packaging materials and products, and import and export of goods. 

It is worth noting that in addition to the continuous strengthening of the supply chain, Chabaidao has been actively exploring overseas markets and coffee tracks in the past two years. 

In December 2023, Chabaidao opened the first store of coffee sub-brand "Coffee Ash" in Chengdu, and entered the coffee track for the first time. 

In January 2024, Chabaidao officially went to sea, and the first overseas store was selected in Gangnam-gu, Seoul, South Korea. Later, stores were opened in Seoul Hongda and Seoul Yau Pavilion. As of April 20, 2024, the number of Chabaidao stores in Korea has reached three. 

At present, it remains to be seen whether Chabaidao has explored the new amount in terms of going to sea and coffee business. 

03. Queue for listing, and the 2024 New Tea Listing Competition started.

In fact, in addition to the hundreds of teas, there are many tea brands waiting in line for listing. 

In January this year, Mi Xue Bing Cheng and Gu Ming submitted prospectuses to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange at the same time. Subsequently, on February 14th, Auntie Shanghai, a tea brand, submitted a prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The co-sponsors were CITIC Securities, haitong international and Dongzheng International. 

△ Image source: Red Meal Network photo 

On April 11th, the Hong Kong Economic Daily also reported that Bawang Tea Ji would go public in the United States as soon as the middle of this year, raising between 200 million and 300 million US dollars (a contract of 1.57 billion to 2.35 billion Hong Kong dollars). 

Why do new tea brands start to get together and go public? In this regard, there are many views in the industry that whoever can take the lead in successful IPO will seize the opportunity among the tea drinks that are "rolled out of the sky". 

In particular, tea brands need a lot of financial support to cope with the competition in the current tea track such as "joining war", "sinking war" and "price war". 

In the past year, in addition to hundreds of teas, brands such as Guming and Auntie in Shanghai have also announced the sprint of 10,000 stores. In order to achieve this goal first, brands often need more funds to spread the store network. With the cooling of the new consumer investment market, the attention of the primary market to the new tea market has obviously declined. Therefore, listing has become a new way for new tea drinkers to obtain funds. 

But the success of listing does not mean that the brand can sit back and relax. Take Chabaidao as an example, it and most new tea brands are in the mid-range price range of 10-20 yuan, including the above-mentioned Guming, Shanghai Auntie and Bawang Tea Ji, which are already waiting in line for listing. 

There are many competitors, and the homogenization of new tea itself has become more and more serious. It is conceivable that these new tea brands in the middle price zone will still face a lot of competitive pressure in the future.