a surname; short for Europe; luckyEurope is a close neighbor of the Middle East. Since the outbreak of the Arab Spring, European countries have generally paid more attention to the situation in the Middle East. As the spokesman of European countries’ political and diplomatic interests, the EU’s intervention and influence on the situation in the Middle East is obvious, and it has become an important external force affecting the development of the situation in the Middle East. Facing the derailed development of the situation in the Middle East, considering its own stability and security factors, the EU hopes to maintain stability and peace in the Middle East. In particular, the proliferation of terrorism and extremist forces in the Middle East poses a major threat to the political and security situation of the EU. The EU hopes to show its political and diplomatic influence by playing a role in Middle East affairs. The recent wave of refugees fleeing from the Middle East has brought great pressure to the EU countries, and it has become an urgent task for the EU to deal with the chaos in the Middle East. In the future, the EU’s Middle East policy will face great challenges.
The Middle East in EU’s Foreign Relations
Europe’s concern about conflicts and crises in the Middle East stems from historical, cultural and geopolitical factors of both sides. After the Madrid Middle East Peace Conference in 1991, Sweden, Norway, Britain, France and other European countries began to actively mediate the Arab-Israeli conflict. In 2000-2002, a serious conflict broke out between Israel and Palestine. Together with the United Nations, the United States and Russia, the European Union established the "four-party talks" mechanism on the Middle East issue, which played an important role in mediating the positions of both sides and coordinating the international community in mediating the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. During the international negotiations on the Iranian nuclear issue that have lasted for many years, the EU countries represented by France, Britain and Germany have become an important force in the international negotiations on the Iranian nuclear issue.
In recent years, the coordination and implementation capacity of the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy has been continuously improved, and it has played an important role in many international issues, especially in the Middle East. On December 12, 2003, the EU Summit held in Brussels, Belgium, adopted the "EU Security Strategy" document submitted by Javier Solana, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. According to this document, the EU has determined that "ten Mediterranean countries are the neighboring countries in the southern part of the Mediterranean", namely, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Israel, Palestine, Syria, Jordan, Libya, Egypt and Lebanon. [1] Among these ten countries, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt and Syria have happened to be the countries that have undergone great political changes in the Middle East since the end of 2010. It is not difficult to understand that the EU’s political, diplomatic and even military actions, such as intervention, mediation, mediation and pressure on these countries with turbulent political situation, are the embodiment of its practice of the Common Foreign and Security Policy.
The EU responds to the changes in the Middle East
And the actions and measures of the crisis
At the end of 2010, the political situation in Tunisia changed suddenly. With the development of the situation in Libya, Syria and Egypt, the European Union has intervened and interfered with the development of these countries in various forms, becoming an important external force affecting the development of the situation in the Middle East.
1. The EU and NATO led the use of force against Libya to overthrow the Qaddafi regime.
In the Libyan crisis in 2011 and the subsequent Libyan war, the EU and NATO played a leading role, while France became the most active EU country advocating the use of force against Libya. Shortly after the NATO-led military operation began, France took over the command of the Libyan war from the United States. France not only spared no effort to attack Libyan government forces militarily, but also reached out to Libyan opposition in politics, becoming the first country to reach out to Libyan political forces opposed to Gaddafi’s government. Soon, France took the lead in recognizing Libya’s "National Transitional Council". After the collapse of Gaddafi’s regime, French President Nicolas Sarkozy was also one of the first western leaders to visit Libya.
France’s position and attitude on Libya is closely related to France’s own strategy in North Africa and the Mediterranean region. France’s historical ties and complex with Libya and North Africa determined its "strong concern" for Libya and African affairs. At the same time, the political ambition and great power consciousness of then French President Nicolas Sarkozy greatly influenced France’s political adventure of taking the lead in overthrowing Gaddafi by military means. Of course, due to Gaddafi’s long-term anti-Western policy in the past, the EU took advantage of Libya’s political crisis to overthrow Gaddafi’s regime, which is beneficial to the EU’s political and security interests and to enhance the EU’s influence.
Second, the EU strongly supports the Syrian opposition and tries to overthrow Bashar? Assad regime
In the spring of 2011, demonstrations against the Bashar government broke out in Syria, and the domestic situation quickly became turbulent. In the following years, western countries, represented by the European Union, constantly urged the Syrian authorities to carry out reforms in line with public opinion. However, the development of the situation in Syria did not follow the direction hoped by the European Union and the outside world, but fell into a civil war, leading to rampant extremist forces.
In order to force Bashar to step down as soon as possible, the EU tried to adopt the "Libya model" to foster Syrian anti-government forces. On February 24, 2012, with the support of international organizations such as the European Union and the Arab League and some Arab countries, the first international conference of "Friends of the Syrian People" was held in Tunisia, attended by representatives from 70 countries including the United States, Britain and France. On the day of the meeting, British Foreign Secretary Haig said that Britain would formally recognize the Syrian National Committee, the largest opposition in Syria, as the legal representative of the country. In November 2012, French President Hollande announced that he recognized the "National Alliance" as "the sole legitimate representative of the Syrian people" and the "future government" of Syria. This means that France has become the first western country to formally and fully recognize Syria’s "National League". [2] But since then, the Syrian opposition has not formed an authoritative political organization supported by various forces. In June 2014, Bashar? In response to Assad’s re-election in the Syrian presidential election, the European Union issued a statement saying that this presidential election in Syria cannot be regarded as a "real democratic voting process". This gesture shows that although the EU is unwilling to accept Bashar to take charge of Syria again, it does not have an effective strategy to overthrow the Syrian regime as soon as possible.
3. The EU supports the changes in Egypt and pays attention to the prospects of domestic political development in Egypt.
In February 2011, popular demonstrations broke out in Egypt, and President Mubarak, who had been in power for many years, had to announce his resignation on February 11. The EU immediately issued a statement expressing its support for the smooth transition of the Egyptian regime. European Council President Van Rompuy, European Commission President Barroso and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Ashton also issued a joint statement on the same day, welcoming Mubarak’s resignation.
After Mubarak stepped down, the situation in Egypt did not develop smoothly. In June 2012, the leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, Morsi, representing the religious conservative forces in Egypt, was elected as the president of Egypt, and the European Union recognized it after the Muslim Brotherhood won. After Mursi took office, he was once committed to improving relations with the West. In September 2012, President Morsi visited the EU headquarters and Italy respectively. In January 2013, European Council President Van Rompuy visited Egypt and said that the EU would provide Egypt with 5 billion euros in loan assistance. In the same month, President Morsi visited Germany. In April, Ashton, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Affairs, visited Egypt.
On July 3, 2013, the Egyptian military ousted the leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, Morsi, who had been in power for only one year. The EU reacted cautiously. On July 4th, Ashton, the EU’s foreign policy representative, said in a statement that the EU is very concerned about the development of Egypt and believes that there are profound differences in Egyptian society. In order to learn more about the development of the domestic situation in Egypt, Ashton went to Egypt on July 30, 2013 to meet with the imprisoned former Egyptian President Morsi, which was the first contact with the outside world after Morsi stepped down. In August, the EU announced an embargo on some military supplies to Egypt. In June 2014, Egypt held a general election, and former military leader Sethi won. The EU sent an observer mission to supervise the elections in Egypt. After the elections, the EU issued a statement and accepted the election results in Egypt. After Sethi came to power, the EU made many contacts with the Egyptian authorities on issues such as resuming assistance to Egypt and accelerating the domestic reform process in Egypt.
Fourth, the EU used political and economic sanctions to put pressure on Syria, Egypt and other countries.
On the Syrian issue, the EU is the first western power to impose sanctions on the Syrian government. In May 2011, the EU began to impose sanctions on the Bashar government. The EU foreign ministers’ meeting adopted a resolution on May 14th, 2012, and decided to expand the scope of sanctions against Syria. Since May 2011, the EU has imposed several rounds of sanctions on Syria, and a total of 43 Syrian enterprises and 128 individuals have been included in the sanctions list.
During the political turmoil in Egypt, the EU not only exerted political influence, but also considered using economic means such as sanctions to influence the development of the domestic situation in Egypt. The EU is Egypt’s most important economic partner. As early as 2001, the EU signed the Egypt-EU Partnership Agreement with Egypt. According to the agreement, all industrial products and some agricultural products exported from Egypt to Europe enjoy duty-free treatment. At the stage of the political crisis in Egypt, the EU thought of using the cancellation of preferential trade conditions with Egypt to put pressure on the Egyptian authorities. In July 2013, when the Egyptian military government overthrew the democratically elected Mursi government, the EU decided to suspend the export of weapons to Egypt, but the economic assistance to Egypt continued. After Sethi was elected President of Egypt, the EU decided to maintain its economic assistance to Egypt.
V. EU strengthens security and counter-terrorism measures to deal with the threat of "Islamic State"
In the EU’s foreign and security policy, combating terrorism and terrorist threats is an important content. The Middle East is a high-incidence place of global terrorism. Considering its own stability and security, the EU strongly supports the countries in the Middle East in their struggle against terrorism. However, due to the definition of terrorism and different views on some organizations engaged in anti-government activities, the EU and some countries in the Middle East also have some differences in the field of counter-terrorism.
In September 2014, US President Barack Obama announced the establishment of an international "anti-terrorism coalition". Most of the allied countries expressed political support for this move by the United States, but they were extremely cautious about sending troops to war. German Foreign Minister Steinmeier said that Germany will not participate in the US air strikes against Syria. However, Steinmeier believes that the military strike plan of the League of Nations against the Islamic State should be based on "political strategy". He also said that Germany is ready to provide weapons to Iraqi Kurdish armed forces.
Although the EU strictly guards against terrorist organizations and terrorists from the Middle East from going deep into EU countries to create terrorist incidents, the sporadic terrorist incidents in EU countries in recent years still show that the EU’s security concerns are not unreasonable. Especially after the rise of the "Islamic State" forces in the Middle East in 2014, it has great appeal to young people with extreme religious ideas in many European countries. Some European citizens with extreme ideas have defected to the "Islamic State" through various channels. According to a British study, the "foreign aid" that went to Syria to participate in the war came from at least 14 European countries. Among them, Britain, France and Germany participated in the largest number of people, and hundreds of people from each country participated in the war. In addition, there were many citizens from Norway, Denmark, Belgium, Austria and other countries. Once these people return to China, they will pose a serious threat to the security of some European countries. On January 7, 2015, a terrorist attack on Charlie Hebdo magazine occurred in Paris, France, killing and injuring more than 10 people. According to a preliminary investigation by the French police, the suspect once went to Yemen and other turbulent countries in the Middle East to fight. This incident is enough to show that the influence of terrorist organizations and terrorist ideas originating in the turbulent region of the Middle East on EU security cannot be ignored.
The EU’s response to the changes in the Middle East
Restricted factors and prospect analysis
No matter from the perspective of hIStorical ties or geopolitics, there is no reason for the EU to ignore the major political changes in the Middle East and countries. However, from dealing with the growing tide of refugees to how to combat the Islamic State (IS) forces, the EU is facing more and more challenges. The EU’s intervention in the situation in the Middle East, including its influence on the internal political process of some countries in the Middle East, is not only restricted by the EU’s ability and desire, but also influenced by the increasingly fierce competition pattern among major powers in the Middle East.
First, the refugee tide in the Middle East: the urgent task for the EU to deal with the chaos in the Middle East
As the EU is adjacent to the Middle East, a large number of refugees fleeing from countries in the Middle East turmoil all take European countries as their escape destinations. According to the estimation of Antonio Guterres, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, as of June 2015, there have been 11 million refugees since the outbreak of the Middle East crisis, including 7.5 million refugees in Syria. 4.5 million Syrian refugees have fled to neighboring countries such as Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey. Refugees from Libya, Syria and other countries have ventured to escape to European countries such as Italy by boat. So far, more than 2,000 people have been killed in the sea. In May 2015, the European Commission put forward a proposal that member States accept refugees according to quotas, but it was opposed by some countries. In August 2015, during the meeting, the leaders of France and Germany put forward a proposal to accelerate the establishment of a unified refugee policy in the European Union. In September, a 3-year-old boy in Syria was killed at sea, which triggered a big discussion among EU countries on their refugee policies. Governments such as France and Germany indicated that they would increase their efforts to accept refugees. On September 9th, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker announced a refugee quota scheme: 22 member states of the European Union will share 120,000 refugees in Hungary, Greece and Italy, including 31,000 refugees in Germany, 24,000 in France and 15,000 in Spain. The plan was enforced after being discussed by EU interior ministers. However, EU countries have different attitudes towards accepting refugees. Germany is relatively active and is the EU country that has received the most refugees in recent years.Nordic countries such as Denmark are relatively negative. However, if the situation in Syria, Libya and other countries continues to deteriorate, a considerable number of millions of refugees currently stranded in Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey will still regard EU countries as refugee destinations, which will put pressure on the EU.
Second, the EU needs to strengthen cooperation with other big countries in the process of coping with the changes and crisis in the Middle East.
The turmoil in the Middle East has a great impact on the political and security interests of Europe, which makes the EU pay close attention to the development of the situation in the Middle East. However, as a supranational international actor, the effect of its foreign policy has great limitations. The EU’s role as an international actor in foreign and security policy continues to be a "dwarf" image, and the foreign and security policies of nation-states within the EU are still its dominant feature. [3] The biggest disadvantage of the EU in intervening and dealing with hot issues in the Middle East is that the EU’s diplomatic executive ability is "virtual", and its political diplomatic resolutions and initiatives are not binding on its member States. In the end, the foreign policy of the European Union needs to be recognized and implemented by various countries within it to achieve results. In addition, the EU needs better cooperation with the United States, Russia and other big countries to play its role. Therefore, on many major issues in the Middle East, the EU plays a more "follower" or "coordinator" role. Of course, once there is an opportunity, the EU will spare no effort to play its role. For example, during the implementation of a comprehensive agreement on Iran’s nuclear issue, the EU’s position and attitude are crucial on issues such as lifting economic and military sanctions against Iran.
Third, the ability and effect of EU intervention in Middle East affairs are subject to many factors.
Whether it is Libya or Syria, the EU’s influence on the long-term development of internal situations in these countries is limited. After Gaddafi’s downfall, the situation in Libya continued to be turbulent, and even there was a situation of warlordism and melee, and external forces such as the European Union could do nothing about it. Regarding the situation in Syria, although the major EU countries have long cut off official ties with Bashar regime, Bashar won the domestic election for re-election in June 2014, and the EU seems to have no other better way except not to recognize it. Especially in dealing with the extreme armed threat of the Islamic State, the EU is one of the 54 countries and organizations participating in the US-led "anti-terrorist coalition". However, the EU is particularly cautious about whether to send ground troops to participate in the war. None of the EU countries have clearly stated that they will consider sending ground troops to participate in the war in the future, which shows that the EU countries are mainly concerned with preventing terrorists from infiltrating into Europe and are unwilling to send troops to fight in Syria and Iraq.
In a word, out of consideration of its own political, economic and security interests, and in order to better show its political influence, the EU keeps close attention to the development of the situation in the Middle East, but its ability and effect of intervention and intervention are also limited. Among the external forces affecting the development of the situation in the Middle East, the EU is indispensable, and it still needs to cooperate with other countries and international organizations.
(The author is from China Academy of Social Sciences.Researcher of west asia and africa Institute)
(Source: Contemporary World)
