Multinational experts: China’s economy is making great strides to benefit the whole world.

CCTV News:Regarding the economic data released by China in the first quarter, multinational experts said that the economic data of China in the first quarter was better than market expectations, which indicated that China’s economy was making great strides, and China’s economic prosperity and development not only benefited China, but also benefited the whole world.

Surab Gupta, a senior researcher at the Center for Sino-American Studies in the United States, said that China’s GDP in the first quarter increased by 4.5% year-on-year and 2.2% quarter-on-quarter, which is a good sign that China’s economy is making great strides, and China will have a bumper harvest year in 2023.

Surab Gupta, Senior Researcher, Center for Sino-American Studies, USA:What we are seeing now is that China is striding forward, and the economic development speed is faster than the market expectation. Frankly speaking, I think China’s economy will soon reach the speed of take-off. In terms of economic growth, 2023 will usher in a bumper year.

Vitol Gaspar, director of the Financial Affairs Department of the International Monetary Fund, said that China’s economy has maintained growth not only because it can adapt to the needs of development and carry out transformation, but also because it insists on the effective combination of expanding consumption and deepening supply-side structural reform.

Vitol Gaspar, Director of the Financial Affairs Department of the International Monetary Fund:I think that China has a very strong growth record in the past 45 years, and China has proved that rapid growth and development are extremely important, and it has indeed lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. With the continuous expansion of China’s scale in the world economy, it is very important for China to give priority to the growth of domestic resources, which shows Chinese’s intelligence.

David Falstein, president of the George Bush Foundation for US-China Relations, said that China’s economy started well in 2023, which benefited from the reform and opening-up policy, and China’s economic achievements were also conducive to global economic development.

David Falstein, President of George Bush Foundation for US-China Relations:Under the reform and opening-up policy, China has obviously achieved success. From the economic point of view, China has been on the right path for a long time, and China has been creating prosperity, improving living environment and improving material conditions. I think it is in the interest of China and the global economy to continue on this path.

Huawei builds M8 brand-new design to challenge luxury SUV market.

In the new energy vehicle market, the brand of Wenjie has gradually won the recognition of consumers by virtue of its technology and performance, but its design has become a hot topic among netizens. In particular, the design of M7 and M9 has been pointed out by many commentators that it is too high similar to other brands, which affects the uniqueness of brands and consumers’ willingness to buy to some extent. However, with the news of M8, it seems that Huawei has listened to the voice of the market and taken action.

The design team of Wenjie M8 has undergone a major transformation, aiming at creating an SUV with a more attractive appearance. The latest renderings show that the appearance design of the M8 is significantly different from the previous model, showing a more sporty and fashionable atmosphere, while incorporating futuristic elements. The front of the car uses a penetrating LED daytime running light, with a split headlight design, and the vertical light group below enhances the recognition of the car.

The side of the car body is simple and powerful, and the dense spoke rims add a sense of luxury, while the smooth window lines further enhance the overall elegance. It is reported that the positioning of the boundary M8 will be between M7 and M9, and the body size is expected to be between the two accordingly.

In terms of price, the M8 is expected to be located in the price range of M7 and M9. Considering the price of 249,800-329,800 yuan and the price of 469,800-569,800 yuan, it is estimated that the starting price of M8 may be more than 300,000 yuan, and the top version may be close to 400,000 yuan. This pricing strategy can not only avoid direct competition with M7, but also won’t occupy the market space of M9.

Although the rendering provides us with a general idea of the appearance of the M8, there are also some details that are not completely consistent with the previously exposed road test spy photos, such as the design of the door handle. The rear part continues the style of M9, and the through taillight has a "Xi" pattern, which implies its programmable characteristics.

In terms of power system, the M8 is expected to be available in both pure electric and pure electric versions, and its performance parameters are expected to be similar to M9, including strong power output and all standard air suspension.

Referring to the M9, its car model is 496PS/675Nm, which broke 100 in 4.9 seconds, and the CLTC pure electric cruising range is 225Km and 275Km. The pure electric vehicle model is the book data of 530PS/673Nm, which broke 100 in 4.3 seconds. The CLTC pure electric cruising range is 630Km, and the whole system comes standard with air suspension.

↑ Ask the interior real shot of M8 exposed.

As for the interior, the M8 follows the design of M9, and is equipped with a "triple screen" consisting of a 12.3-inch LCD instrument panel, a 15.6-inch central control screen and a 16-inch passenger entertainment screen, and a high-order intelligent driving system, which reflects Huawei’s technical strength in intelligence.

Generally speaking, the biggest highlight of the M8 is its brand-new design, which will greatly enhance its recognition and attractiveness in the market. With the disclosure of more information, we look forward to asking M8 to achieve better sales results in the future market.

People’s Forum Online Review | Displaying Young Talents in the Broad Field of Grassroots

1688787139869

  The key to building a socialist modern country in an all-round way and promoting the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation lies in the party, the key lies in people, and in the final analysis, the generation after generation of loyal and reliable young cadres who can shoulder heavy responsibilities hold the "baton" in the new era. Recently, "Qiushi" magazine published an important article by the Supreme Leader General Secretary, "Strive to grow into a pillar talent who is loyal and reliable to the party and the people and worthy of the heavy responsibility of the times", focusing on major issues such as how young cadres grow into talents and who to start businesses for, and profoundly expounding from six aspects, and putting forward clear requirements for young cadres. As a Selected Graduates, I deeply feel the arduous responsibility and glorious mission, and I am also excited to have a broader grassroots world to display my talents, and I am more determined to grow into a new era Selected Graduates worthy of the heavy responsibility of national rejuvenation.

  Build a solid foundation of belief that "politics is the first and loyalty is the most important".The party’s political construction is a fundamental, fundamental and overall issue concerning the direction, future and destiny of the party and the country. Talking about politics is the most basic and important standard and principle to measure a cadre. In the new era, Selected Graduates should take a clear-cut stand on politics, enhance its political position, strengthen its political responsibility, strive to improve its political judgment, political understanding and political execution, constantly temper its loyal and reliable political character to the party and the people, deeply understand the decisive significance of the "two establishment", constantly enhance its "four consciousnesses", strengthen its "four self-confidences", achieve its "two maintenance", and closely combine its personal ideal with Socialism with Chinese characteristics’s common ideal to achieve lofty ideals.

  Practice the excellent skills of "solid theory and strong practice".Selected Graduates, from the campus to the society, from the organs to the grassroots, is unfamiliar with the actual situation of the village community and lacks experience in dealing with residents, so it is urgent to master the methods of mass work. It is necessary to strengthen theoretical study, strengthen theoretical foundation, and learn to observe, study and solve grassroots problems with the Party’s innovative theory. Consciously use the party’s innovative theory to guide practice and promote work, be good at summing up experience and grasping laws in grass-roots work and practice, and pay attention to strengthening tempering and increasing skills in peacetime work. Be willing to be a "primary school student", learn from the masses, strengthen investigation and research, and constantly improve comprehensive quality and work ability in dealing with various grassroots problems.

  Always keep the enterprising attitude of "starting a business and bravely shouldering heavy burdens".As an outstanding representative of young people, Selected Graduates should take the initiative to do something, not despise trivial matters at the grass-roots level, not be afraid to avoid major events and difficulties related to development, be brave in "volunteering", dare to "ask for trouble" and get rid of "being superior to others"; We must be brave enough to take on heavy tasks, dare to wade through dangerous beaches, rapids and reefs, take the initiative to fight for the heaviest burden, gnaw at the hardest bones, and practice "hard and wide shoulders" in pioneering and forging ahead; We should do good deeds and make achievements, establish the value orientation of "reactive power is excessive, mediocrity is wrong", resolutely attack perfunctory and confused work, make everything closed-loop and effective, strive to grow into a "sharp soldier" who can do things, know how to do things and get things done, and contribute Selected Graduates’s strength to writing the grass-roots chapters of Chinese modernization. (Author: Xue Cheng)

Operating vehicles usher in the "wind outlet for changing electricity". The three-generation power station of Yiyi Interconnection was launched nationwide.

    On November 15th, the national launch of the third generation power station of Easy Connect was held in Hangzhou, marking another solid and important step for Easy Connect in the field of automobile power exchange. The third-generation power station of Yiyi Interconnection has made greater breakthroughs in the aspects of "power exchange speed, power exchange reliability and power exchange safety guarantee", which also indicates that the operating market is welcoming the "power exchange outlet".

   The power exchange mode is a "potential stock", which will effectively complement the charging mode.

    As one of the important ways to replenish energy for new energy vehicles, the power exchange mode has always been an important direction to promote new energy infrastructure construction. In October, 2021, the Notice on Launching the Pilot Work of the New Energy Vehicle Switching Mode decided to launch the pilot work of the new energy vehicle switching mode application. There are 11 cities included in the pilot scope, including 8 comprehensive application cities (Beijing, Nanjing, Wuhan, Sanya, Chongqing, Changchun, Hefei and Jinan). In July 2023, "Several Measures on Promoting Automobile Consumption" proposed to speed up the popularization, application and construction of the power exchange mode.

    Although the current mainstream market for new energy vehicles is charging, according to market research and analysis of relevant experts, the mode of replacing electricity also has huge market potential and industrial expansion space.

    In the future, changing electricity will inevitably become one of the most important ways to replenish energy in the new energy vehicle market, and it is a "potential stock" for industrial upgrading, which will effectively complement the charging mode.

    "Easy Connect Technology Co., Ltd.", a subsidiary of Geely Automobile Group, is a firm practitioner and active promoter of automobile power exchange mode. In January 2017, the R&D team of power exchange technology was set up; In September 2020, the Chongqing Exhibition Station was completed, and the power exchange mode was released for the first time; In January 2021, he won the "Golden Intelligence Award of the Year" in the third China Automobile Golden Coconut Award; In September 2021, as a new power for power exchange, it appeared at the Beijing New Energy Automobile Industry Development Achievement Exhibition; In October, 2023, the brand vision was released: to build the first brand in the operation market.

   Create the industry’s first smart electricity exchange ecological platform and become a "strength school" for big travel.

    Easy Internet has been deeply involved in the power exchange industry for more than 6 years, and has accumulated leading industry experience. It has more than 1,000 R&D personnel and invested more than 1 billion yuan. It has thousands of technical patents in the power exchange fields such as "power exchange architecture, power exchange station, standardized battery pack, power exchange vehicle, and station control cloud platform", and has issued more than 30 related standards for power exchange, and its reliability verification test has exceeded 300,000 kilometers, making it the first in the industry to have "complete vehicle-battery".

    According to Yang Quankai, president of Yiyi Internet Technology Co., Ltd., Yiyi Internet’s third-generation power station has the advantages of "high modularity, high compatibility, high intelligence, high service capacity and high security", reshaping the new experience of replacing electricity and replenishing energy.

    (1) High modularity: The power station adopts a highly integrated modular design concept, which can increase or decrease the number of boxes according to the service capacity, realize rapid disassembly, strong reproducibility and rapid deployment, and can stop at the station within 24 hours at the earliest. The single station of the power exchange station covers an area of 120-200m2, with small floor space and high efficiency ratio.

    (2) High compatibility: the unique open power exchange platform architecture can achieve multi-vehicle compatibility and achieve wheelbase bandwidth coverage of 2700-3100mm. It has opened customized service for vehicles to the market, promoting the coordinated development of technology and the promotion of power exchange technical standards. The adaptive ambient temperature range of the power station is-30 ~ 55 C, which can adapt to the low temperature weather in most northern winters.

    (3) High intelligence: the intelligent temperature control system under all-weather conditions has the characteristics of constant temperature and slow charging, dynamic inspection, etc., which ensures the intelligent control of the whole charging environment, realizes the interconnection of vehicles, stations and cloud platforms, and realizes integrated operation.

    (4) High safety: The power exchange station has a three-level fire protection system, and 24-hour cloud monitoring is implemented for the power exchange battery by using 5G technology, and the battery life is prolonged by constant temperature and slow charging. Seven-layer safety measures are adopted to ensure the safety of the battery and the power exchange station, and advanced locking mechanism design has established a safety barrier in the whole process of power exchange.

    (5) High service capability: With the intelligent power exchange management system, the automatic power exchange operation can be unmanned, and the whole process takes less than 1.5 minutes (the mechanical power exchange part can be completed in 40 seconds at the earliest), and the number of power exchanges in a single station is ≥540 times a day, saving 1-2 hours for drivers in each shift. The annual power exchange capacity of a single station can reach 7 million kWh, and the annual revenue of a single station can reach 10 million yuan.

    In the next three years, Yiyi Interconnect will operate 2,000 power exchange stations nationwide, and unite the efforts of all parties to provide high-quality power exchange and energy replenishment services for drivers, making power exchange faster than refueling; At the same time, E-easy Internet will also launch power exchange and energy replenishment solutions that specifically match the operating market, and build the first brand of power exchange and energy replenishment in the operating market. Up to now, Yiyi Interconnect has deployed and operated over 300 power stations in more than 30 cities including Chongqing, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Tianjin, Jinan, Xi ‘an and Shenyang. The number of power changes per day exceeds 20,000 times, and the power change per day exceeds 600,000 kWh, and the operating data is growing steadily.

    At present, there are "Cao Cao 60, Maple Leaf 80v, Maple Leaf 60s, Ruilan 9, Ruilan 7, British TX5" which can be used for power exchange in the power exchange station of Easy Connect. More automobile brands are developing power exchange models and joining the power exchange system of Easy Connect one after another.

    Change the electricity to the windward port, and the break is in the present. As an important part of the new energy vehicle industry, the development of power exchange mode is of great significance to promote the popularization and application of new energy vehicles. With its long-term accumulation of outstanding technical strength and strategic layout of the operating market, Easy Internet is bound to lead the industry trend and help the industry upgrade.

How is China’s population data counted? These knowledge points should be understood.

  People’s Daily Online, Beijing, May 13 (Yang Xi) Recently, the release of the main data of the seventh national census has aroused great concern from all walks of life. Some netizens found that the trend reflected by the census data published this time is inconsistent with that published in non-census years, so they raised some questions about individual data.

  In this regard, the National Bureau of Statistics answered the above questions and related questions of population statistics.

  How to count and publish population data?

  At present, China’s demographic survey mainly has three ways:

  The first is the national census, which is conducted once every ten years in the year when the mantissa meets "0", and the census data is published in China Census Data.

  The second is the national 1% population sampling survey, which was conducted in the year when the mantissa met "5", and the survey data was published in the National 1% Population Sampling Survey Data.

  Third, the national sample survey of population changes, the sample size accounts for about 1&permil of the total population; In addition to the census year and the sampling year of 1% population survey, it is conducted once a year, and the survey data are published in the Statistical Yearbook of China and the Statistical Yearbook of Population and Employment of China.

  The main statistical indicators of the above three types of population data will be published in the annual data in the database of the National Bureau of Statistics.

  Why is the trend reflected by census data inconsistent with that published in non-census years?

  The population in non-census years is calculated according to the sampling survey data of that year. Due to the missing rate of sampling surveys in some years, there will be some deviations in the estimated population as a whole, and these deviations will continue to accumulate with the passage of time.

  Carrying out the population census once every 10 years can comprehensively find out the number, structure and distribution of China’s population, let us know more clearly the development of China’s population in the past 10 years, and provide extremely valuable data for better studying population issues and formulating population-related policies.

  So how to deal with this inconsistency? According to international practice and common practice, after the census, the annual data published between the two censuses are generally revised according to the census results, so as to reflect the population development track more truly and objectively. In the sixth national census and the just-concluded fourth national economic census, historical data were also revised according to census data. At present, this work is in progress, and the relevant data will be released on schedule after the revision is completed.

  Is the population statistics based on household registration or residence?

  At present, China’s population census and population survey are counted and summarized according to the resident population. The time standard for judging the permanent population is half a year, and the space standard is township, town and street.

  The resident population is an important basic data for formulating the national economic and social development plan, evaluating the national economic production capacity, and evaluating the welfare level of residents. It has a wide range of applications, such as financial expenditure, urban construction, housing construction, allocation of public facilities, education investment, medical investment and public utility investment, etc., which need to be planned according to the size of the resident population.

  The registered population refers to the registered population in a certain area, regardless of whether they go out or not, as long as they register their permanent residence in the public security household registration management department. The data of registered population is counted by the public security department. For a long time, China has established a set of perfect household registration statistics and management system, which has played an important role in social management.

  How is the floating population data counted?

  Floating population refers to the population whose residence is inconsistent with the township street where the household registration place is located, and who has been separated from the household registration place for half a year or more (excluding the separation of households within the municipal area). The survey indicators used to judge and reflect the floating population include: the place of registration, the place of residence at the time of investigation, the time of leaving the place of registration and the reasons for leaving the place of registration. The National Bureau of Statistics formulates a demographic survey system according to the Statistics Law of the People’s Republic of China, conducts demographic surveys on a regular basis, and publishes major demographic data such as permanent population, birth population, dead population, urban and rural population and floating population.

Juno Mak’s "Zombie" box office is over 10 million, and the results are attributed to the production team.


Zombies won a good reputation and box office.
 
    On November 5th, Beijing time, according to Hong Kong media reports, Juno Mak’s new film won a good reputation and box office, and he generously attributed the achievements to the whole production team. Juno Mak made no secret of considering making a sequel, but insisted on stopping when it was good. He laughed and said that he had been contacted by the hospital and asked to show both the II B and III versions at the same time, which made the public more interested in the film.
 
    Juno Mak’s painstaking "Directed by a Virgin" was released for 11 days, and recorded a total of 11 million Hong Kong dollars at the box office in Hong Kong and Macao, earning an average of 1 million dollars a day, which excited the staff behind the scenes.
 
Juno Mak wants to shoot other subjects.
 
    When Juno Mak was interviewed by telephone, he said with a smile: "As soon as everyone knew that there was a three-level version, they became more interested in Zombies. We were contacted by a hospital operator, preferring to let the theater level II B and level III go together. It was really unexpected." He also said that the film’s overseas box office results are also very satisfactory: "At least 80% of them have been sold. In fact, some investors have considered making a sequel, but I don’t think similar themes will be my choice for my next film, and I have scripts with other themes at hand."
 
    Although the box office was a big success, Juno Mak didn’t flatter himself. Instead, he said generously, "This success should be attributed to the whole production team, and the list to thank is really too long. What makes me feel most gratified is that this time it proves that the Hong Kong film industry can actually accommodate more themes and new forces. "
 
Publicity with the leading actor in Taiwan
 
    In addition, Juno Mak will fly to Taiwan Province with Siu-ho Chin and Chen You, the two leading actors in the play, for a three-day publicity. The local media also showed great interest in Zombies, so Juno Mak took many interviews and continued to promote it, hoping that the film would "go to the next city" when it was officially released in Taiwan Province on Friday.

Fake box office and fake viewing are also infringement and need to be severely punished!

  editorial comment/note

  As International Consumer Rights Day, on March 15th every year, all kinds of anti-counterfeiting activities attract the most attention. As consumers, we can complain about rights protection if we eat fake food or buy fake goods; But when we enjoy "spiritual food" and watch "fake movies or TV", can we only admit that we are unlucky and have no recourse?

  After all, in today’s film and television industry, we have become accustomed to data fraud. In 2016, ip man 3 was found by the regulatory authorities to have a fake box office of 32 million yuan and a box office purchased by the publisher of 56 million yuan; Monster hunt, which set a box office record in 2015, was even more because of the falsification of data, which led the authoritative foreign box office website Box Office Mojo to announce that it would no longer provide box office data of China film market, because it lacked "consistent and accurate" data sources.

  The TV industry can’t be immune to it. It is reported that the current price of purchasing ratings has climbed to 300,000 to 500,000 yuan per episode, and a satellite TV channel needs to pay 4 billion yuan for ratings fraud throughout the year. In such a big environment, it is no wonder that consumers always suspect that they are watching fake movies or fake TVs that are different from others when watching movies with box office exceeding 100 million or TV dramas with top ten ratings.

  Truth | law

  Liu Junhai (Professor, Law School, Renmin University of China)

  Film and television works are also regulated by the Consumer Protection Law.

  Beijing News: As consumers, should the audience get some protection when consuming spiritual products? In an environment where fake data is rampant, are we considered to be infringed?

  Spiritual products are also commodities. It also applies to market rules, including supply and demand rules, so it is completely adjusted by the Consumer Protection Law, which means that the goods and services adjusted by the Consumer Protection Law include film and television works.

  Therefore, consumers of film and television works certainly enjoy the right to know, the right to choose, the right to fair trade and the right to security. If some cinemas and website platforms falsify and deliberately use water injection data, brush data and box office water injection, this actually constitutes fraud. According to the provisions of the Consumer Protection Law, consumers have the right to ask for a refund of 100 yuan if they buy a ticket with 100 yuan. Pay another 300 yuan.

  Only in this way can we exert punitive damages, severely punish the faithless, fully compensate the victims and the audience, effectively motivate the rights-defending audience, warn the film and television industry, and at the same time, make things clear.

  The untrustworthy in the film and television industry should pay the economic price.

  Beijing News: Zhao Dongling, deputy to the National People’s Congress and screenwriter, suggested that criminal law should be used to punish plagiarism, box office water injection and data brushing. Is it realistic to rely on imprisonment to solve any chaos?

  Although I am in favor of severe punishment for chaos and severe medicine for furuncle, "severe punishment" and "severe medicine" are not limited to criminal responsibility More importantly, it should activate civil liability. As long as the injured audience gets real money compensation, and the counterfeiters and faithless people really pay the economic price they are unwilling to bear, the effect should be very good.

  We often say that the market has eyes and the law has teeth. To polish the eyes of the market, it also includes letting consumers pay more attention to their wallets when choosing demonstration works, and rationally choose their favorite film and television works; Temper the teeth of the law, including traditional civil liability, administrative liability, criminal liability, and the current credit sanctions mechanism-not only embarrassing, but also a breach of trust is limited everywhere.

  In addition, to regulate the chaos in the film and television market, it is necessary to innovate the joint punishment mechanism for dishonesty. For example, when the producer or director of a broken promise works and other creative works reinvest and shoot other films in the future, the competent authorities will know fairly well-permission is troublesome, not to mention applying for relevant loans, participating in the government procurement market, participating in the "Five One Project" and so on, and I am afraid that they will all be missed in the future-equivalent to our court’s handling of "Lao Lai". Let the untrustworthy pay the price and let the honest get the pass. Only in this way can film and television works release positive energy and clear hidden rules.

  With the improvement of people’s living standards, people have more and more demand for excellent film and television works. In fact, a good work is not a big hit, and it is not necessary to adopt dishonest marketing methods such as thirty-six schemes and larded studies-artists should have a conscience. Moreover, the problem of video data fraud should not be paid attention to until March 15 th Consumer Protection Day. This is a big problem related to the sustainable development of our film and television industry and market. My idea is to create an "audience-friendly" China film and television market, which can be truly shared by all creative parties and ordinary audiences.

  False | data

  Lv Yuxiang (teacher of Tsinghua University School of Journalism and Communication)

  Video data should be supervised, and it is also important for the audience to improve their literacy.

  Beijing News: During the two sessions, issues such as water injection and data brushing at the box office of film and television dramas were raised by many members. Can this problem be solved by technology?

  For example, some data platforms can filter out some abnormal data through algorithms. This has long been technically realized. It is not difficult to find false data. The question is, who will make it public? Doing these things requires costs, and it can be done once or twice. In the long run, no one (or institution) will be able to afford it.

  Data platform is a part of the market, so this problem is not only a matter of data platform, but also a market means. Practitioners are just driven by interests and take advantage of some loopholes that can be exploited. Moreover, no algorithm is perfect, and there will be defects. As long as there is demand in the market, there will always be some people who use it to achieve market goals. This is an industrial chain, but the problem will never be solved by criticizing them without guiding the audience-that is, improving the audience’s aesthetic and ability to distinguish between good and bad.

  The data platform is not monopolized, and its influence is different.

  Beijing News: Some members suggested that "monopoly should be broken, and new statistical methods such as real-time ratings should be introduced to realize a scientific system in which multiple ratings survey modes coexist." Can you explain it in detail?

  In fact, operators, broadcasting systems and media platforms now have their own databases, which may cause other contradictions once they are made public. Official data, such as some ratings survey companies, are actually very few samples in different cities. Using such a small sample to interpret a problem in a large range can reflect a trend, but this sample cannot be used to delve into specific details.

  If you think that the scoring and box office data of the open platform are very watery, there is actually not only one platform. Some research institutions also have their own monitoring, but their data are generally not completely open and have little influence, but some professionals may refer to them.

  Can’t rely on the regulatory authorities for everything.

  Beijing News: Can we rely on the government to establish a third-party data platform to control video data fraud?

  This goes back to the first question. If the government leads, the government will invest money to be a platform or invest manpower to supervise. Who will this money be invested in? Is it necessary to create a new position? Personally, I don’t think we can let the government do everything, and let the market run and solve it when there is a market mechanism. As far as this issue is concerned, the official responsibility-whether the government or the media-should be to remind the audience not to blindly trust the data. If you know that the fraud is serious, the content itself is not good. As an audience, you should not watch it. This is a personal media literacy problem.

  In a word, we can’t let the government solve all the problems while calling for decentralization. The establishment of a third-party data platform is not necessary to increase the workload of the management department-and it may not be done well.

  What can you do if you find "false ratings"?

  department responsible for the work

  The Film Industry Promotion Law, which came into effect on March 1, 2017, stipulates that if film distribution enterprises and cinemas make false transactions, falsely report sales revenue, etc., disrupting the order of the film market, the film authorities of the people’s governments at or above the county level shall order them to make corrections, confiscate their illegal income, impose fines according to specific circumstances, and may take measures such as ordering them to suspend business for rectification and revoking their licenses according to the seriousness of the circumstances.

  consumer

  According to China’s Law on the Protection of Consumers’ Rights and Interests, business operators should provide consumers with information about goods or services truthfully and comprehensively, and must not make false or misleading propaganda; Consumers also have the right to report and sue acts that infringe on consumers’ rights and interests. Therefore, when we meet relevant operators and use false data in the process of film and television promotion, we can not only write film reviews truthfully, but also report them to relevant departments. □ Xiaoxiao (Master of Laws)

Class 2, Youth, No.65th Session of the Party School of Zhengzhou Municipal Committee, held a student forum.

  Cctv news Recently, with the theme of "improving the emergency response ability and keeping the bottom line of safety and stability", the second class of the 65th Middle School of the Party School of Zhengzhou Municipal Committee held a student forum on how to improve the emergency response ability of young and middle-aged cadres. During the activity, 15 students’ representatives exchanged speeches, and Deng Yunqi, director of the cadre planning office of the Organization Department of Zhengzhou Municipal Committee, made a summary comment.

  At the forum, all the students spoke from different perspectives and fields closely around the theme, combining their work practice and learning experience. Students communicate from the practical level, explain their views from the industry field, express their views from the perspective of "learning from practice", and solve the problem of emergency response ability of young and middle-aged cadres with "understanding thinking".

  The atmosphere at the forum was warm, and "flash" suggestions emerged one after another. The speeches included both theoretical explanations and case analysis. There are both problems and countermeasures; There are both experiences and lessons. Through this forum, the students exchanged ideas, enlightened their wisdom, tested the learning effect, and embodied the purpose of applying what they have learned to promote learning.

  Deng Yunqi fully affirmed this student forum. He believes that the forum is well-prepared, well-organized, and has a strong atmosphere. All the students have made in-depth thinking based on their own job responsibilities and professional fields, and made speeches from different dimensions and perspectives. He expressed the hope that everyone will cherish the learning platform of the party school, take everything and every activity seriously, calm down, think deeply, discuss and communicate, improve their ability in all directions, lay a solid foundation for future work, and live up to the trust and cultivation of the organization.

China Employment Situation Report: 2019


  Text: Ren Zeping Xiong Chai Zhou Zhe of Evergrande Research Institute.


  Intern Zhou Xinyi and others contributed to this article.


  guide reading


  In July 2018, Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party put forward the requirement of "six stabilities" to do a good job in economic work, putting "stable employment" in the first place. In 2019, the Government Work Report put the employment priority policy at the macro-policy level for the first time, and asked higher vocational colleges to expand enrollment by 1 million. In May, the the State Council Employment Leading Group was established for the first time, which showed that the central government attached great importance to employment. What is the current employment situation in China?


  abstract


  There are limitations or distortions in judging the employment situation only by official unemployment rate and other data. 1) The registered unemployment rate in cities and towns depends on the unemployed taking the initiative to register with the social and social departments, and it is only for the non-agricultural population. The data fluctuates slightly, and it fell to 3.61% at the end of the second quarter of 2019, which is not related to the economic trend. 2) The urban survey unemployment rate was officially announced from the beginning of 2018, and it continued to be higher than 5% in 2019 and 5.1% in June. However, the survey sample of 85,000 urban households only accounts for 0.03% of the urban employment in China, and the sampling rate is only half of 0.07% in the United States. Moreover, it is not representative of migrant workers and the sampling frame is aging. 3) The recruitment rate depends on the fact that job seekers and employers voluntarily register with local public employment service agencies, and the data shows a long-term upward trend, with limited reference value. In the second quarter of 2019, it was 1.22, both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. 4) To judge the employment situation, we need not only employment quantity indicators such as unemployment rate, but also employment quality indicators such as average working hours, salary growth rate and part-time job ratio, but there are limited indicators to measure employment quality at present.


  Other employment data reflect the current real employment pressure. 1) The number of new jobs in cities and towns decreased by 2% year-on-year in the first half of this year, and the growth rate of the number of people receiving unemployment benefits and re-employment was not optimistic. In the first half of 2019, there were only 7.47 million new jobs in cities and towns, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%, and the target completion rate dropped to 67.0%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points compared with the first half of last year. In the first quarter of 2019, the year-on-year growth rate of the number of people receiving unemployment insurance benefits has increased for five consecutive quarters. From January to May 2019, the number of unemployed people in cities and towns re-employed decreased by 9.1%, and the number of people with employment difficulties decreased by 4.2%. 2) Both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI employee indices tend to decline. In June 2019, the manufacturing PMI employee index fell to 46.9%, the lowest since March 2009; Non-manufacturing PMI employees index fell to 48.2%, falling for two consecutive months. 3) The CIER index of Renmin University and Zhilian recruitment is still at a low level in the second quarter. The CIER index is the ratio of recruitment demand to the number of applicants on the Zhaopin recruitment website, which was 1.89 in the second quarter of 2019, although it rose slightly year-on-year, it was still at a low level. In terms of regions, the CIER indices in the eastern, central, western and northeastern regions in the second quarter of 2019 were 1.18, 1.14, 0.92 and 0.66, respectively, which all declined year-on-year, and the eastern region experienced the largest decline; In terms of cities, the CIER indices of first-tier, new-tier, second-tier and third-tier cities are 0.60, 0.94, 1.18 and 1.25 respectively.Second-and third-tier cities saw the biggest decline. 4) In the first half of 2019, the search volume of job-related keywords in Baidu Index surged. The search volume of Baidu for keywords such as "looking for a job", "recruitment", "recruitment information" and "unemployment benefits" in the past 90 days increased by 482%, 492%, 80% and 122% respectively.


  The economic downturn will further put pressure on the job market. 1) The current economic and financial situation is grim. In the second quarter of 2019, the GDP growth rate dropped to a new low of 6.2%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter. Moreover, the impact of the escalation of trade friction in May and the intensive introduction of real estate financing tightening policies has not yet appeared. Recently, leading economic indicators have declined, such as real estate sales, land purchase and funding sources, PMI orders and PMI export orders. Moreover, the economic and financial structure is deteriorating. For example, the proportion of medium and long-term loans of enterprises has declined, while the proportion of short-term loans and short-term financing has increased; PPI goes down, and corporate profits decline. Although the continuous reduction of labor supply will alleviate the employment pressure, the economic slowdown will lead to a further slowdown in labor demand and further pressure on the job market, although large-scale unemployment is unlikely. 2) From the perspective of industry, the employment in manufacturing industry is mainly affected by the downturn in exports and the decline in profits of PPI-declining enterprises. The construction industry is affected by the limited space for infrastructure recovery and the decline in real estate investment, and the follow-up is not optimistic; According to Zhaopin’s recruitment data, the recruitment demand in the financial industry decreased by 39.7% and 37.0% in the first and second quarters respectively, and the Internet/e-commerce decreased by 22.5% and 13.6% respectively. From the perspective of key groups, the scale of college graduates continues to hit a new high, the growth rate of migrant workers slows down but their age is aging, the scale of "4050" personnel rises, and the employment pressure is greater. 3) Policy suggestions. First, further vigorously optimize the business environment, promote the implementation of tax reduction and fee reduction, and smooth financing channels.Give full play to the role of enterprises as the main body of stable employment, especially private and small and medium-sized enterprises. Private and small and medium-sized enterprises are the main body to attract employment, but the business environment has deteriorated in the past few years, including being injured to some extent in the past deleveraging, capacity reduction and environmental protection storms, and the continued downturn in exports has increased their survival pressure, coupled with poor financing channels and liquidity stratification. Although the government has issued a number of policies to bail out private and small and medium-sized enterprises, the effect of the policies remains to be seen. Second, increase the opening up of the service industry, especially the financial, educational, medical and telecommunications industries; Accelerate the construction of metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations with big cities as the core, increase the density and frequency of economically active population to promote agglomeration, and give full play to the role of service industry in absorbing employment. The third is to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, not only to prevent excessive financial bubble, but also to prevent active puncture from causing major financial risks. Fourth, solidly promote the large-scale enrollment expansion of higher vocational colleges, implement large-scale vocational skills training, and promote the transformation of labor skills to meet the needs of industrial transformation and upgrading.


  Risk warning: the official unemployment rate is limited or distorted, and the policy fluctuates greatly.


  catalogue


  1 there are limitations in judging the employment situation simply by official unemployment rate and other data.


  2 Other employment data reflect the current employment pressure.


  2.1 New jobs in cities and towns decreased by 2% year-on-year in the first half of the year, and the growth rate of unemployment benefits and re-employment was not optimistic.


  2.2 manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI employees’ indices are trending downward.


  2.3 Renmin University and Zhilian recruitment CIER index is still at a low level in the second quarter.


  2.4 Baidu Index job search related keywords surged in the first half of the year.


  The economic downturn will further put pressure on the job market, but the possibility of mass unemployment is very low.


  3.1 The current economic and financial situation is grim, and the labor market will be further under pressure.


  3.2 The employment pressure of some industries and key groups will be further highlighted.


  3.3 Policy recommendations


  main body


  1 there are limitations in judging the employment situation simply by official unemployment rate and other data.


  What is employment? According to the definition of the International Labour Organization, people who have worked for at least one hour in order to obtain labor remuneration or business income during the reference week of the survey, as well as people who are on vacation or temporarily suspended from work but are not working, are regarded as employed persons. Therefore, to judge the employment situation, we need to observe not only the overall unemployment rate, the unemployment rate by age, but also the ratio of job vacancies and job seekers, the average working time of employed people, the salary growth rate and the part-time employment ratio. Although China has improved its employment statistics, there are still obvious problems, which are difficult to fully reflect the real employment situation.


  1) The registered unemployment rate in cities and towns depends on the unemployed taking the initiative to register with the social and social departments, and it is only for the non-agricultural population. The data fluctuates slightly, and it fell to 3.61% in the second quarter of 2019, which is not related to the economic trend. In the early 1980s, China began to establish a registered unemployment system, which was called "unemployment statistics" at that time, and it was changed to "registered unemployment" in 1994. Urban registered unemployment rate = urban registered unemployed/(urban employees+urban registered unemployed). Registered unemployed people in cities and towns are unemployed people who are non-agricultural registered permanent residence, aged over 16 to retirement age, have the ability to work, are unemployed and ask for employment, and voluntarily register with public employment service agencies. Obviously, the registered unemployed do not include migrant workers and other permanent residents, so it is difficult to reflect the real unemployment situation. According to the data, the registered unemployment rate in cities and towns remained stable between 4.0% and 4.3% for a long time from 2002 to 2016, and continued to drop to 3.61% in June 2019 from 2017, which is obviously inconsistent with the economic growth trend.



  2) The survey unemployment rate has been officially announced since the beginning of 2018, but the survey sample of 85,000 urban families only accounts for about 0.03% of the urban employment in China, and the sampling rate is only half of 0.07% in the United States, and the sample rotation problem leads to insufficient representation of migrant workers. In view of the above-mentioned problems of registered unemployment rate in cities and towns, the National Bureau of Statistics officially implemented the national labor force sampling survey twice a year in 2005, established the monthly labor force sampling survey system in 31 big cities in 2009, and expanded it to 65 cities in 2013. In 2016, the monthly labor force survey covered all prefecture-level cities (prefectures and leagues) and sampled 120,000 families in China, and began to publish the unemployment rate data of urban surveys continuously in early 2018. Obviously different from the registered unemployment rate in cities and towns, the survey unemployment rate in cities and towns in China is based on the statistics of permanent residents, and adopts the unemployment standard of the International Labour Organization, that is, people aged 16 or above who have no job but have been actively looking for a job in the past three months.


  From the trend point of view, the survey unemployment rate in China and 31 big cities are weakly related to the trend of GDP, and the unemployment rate and GDP growth rate in 31 big cities with relatively long data period basically keep changing in the same direction. Judging from the urban survey unemployment rate, it has been fluctuating in the range of 4.8%-5.3% since January 2018, and it has been higher than 5% since January 2019 and 5.1% in June 2019. Because the urban survey unemployment rate is close to the natural unemployment rate of about 5%, the official believes that there is no periodic unemployment. From a year-on-year perspective, the urban survey unemployment rate basically continued to rise from -0.2 percentage points in January 2018 to 0.3 percentage points in June 2019.


  There are still three problems in China’s urban survey unemployment rate statistics: First, the sample is insufficient. Among the 120,000 households in the monthly labor force survey, there are about 85,000 households (household units) in cities and towns, accounting for only 0.03% of the urban employment in China. In the United States, the survey sample in the unemployment rate statistics is 60,000 households, accounting for about 0.07% of the non-agricultural employment in the United States. Second, the representativeness of the foreign resident population may be insufficient. In the survey, in order to avoid sample aging, the National Bureau of Statistics adopts sample rotation, that is, it withdraws from the survey after completing four surveys within two years, which means that investigators must find relatively stable families, and permanent migrants with strong mobility may be excluded. Moreover, when the employment situation is not good, some migrant workers return to the countryside, which makes the urban unemployment rate lower in data. Third, the sampling frame is aging. According to the local statistics department, the data of the sixth population census in 2010 is used as the primary sampling frame. Although it is updated every year, it is only a simple expansion in practice, and the newly-built community still cannot enter the sampling frame, which leads to the serious aging of the existing survey samples and poor sample representativeness.




  3) The recruitment rate depends on job seekers and employers voluntarily going to local public employment service agencies to register, and the data shows a long-term upward trend, with limited reference value. Multiplication ratio = job vacancy/number of job seekers. The data comes from public employment service agencies in 100 cities in Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security. Urban and rural workers who are of working age, have the ability to work and have employment requirements can apply for public employment services in the public employment service institutions of their permanent residence with relevant documents such as resident identity cards; Employers can consult with public employment service agencies and apply for employment services. Since the fourth quarter of 2010, the recruitment ratio has exceeded 1 and basically increased, and it has dropped to 1.22 in the second quarter of 2019, down by 0.05 and 0.01 percentage points respectively from the previous quarter and the same period last year. The relationship between the recruitment ratio and GDP change is weak, mainly because it relies on public employment service agencies at all levels to collect data by registration, and does not include new job-seeking channels such as campus recruitment, online recruitment and employment agency, which has narrow coverage and limited reference significance. As a reference, the US Department of Labor released JOLTS job vacancy data, which comes from the monthly survey of job vacancies and labor turnover rate, which surveys employers about the employment situation of enterprises, the number of vacant positions, recruitment and dismissal, etc. The survey sample covers about 16,000 American enterprises, covering most areas of the American economy. JOLT job vacancies in the United States have a wider coverage, which can better reflect the employment situation and positively change with the year-on-year growth rate of GDP.




  4) Judging the employment situation requires not only employment quantity indicators such as unemployment rate, but also employment quality indicators such as average working hours, salary growth rate and part-time job ratio. However, there are limited indicators to measure employment quality at present, and there are also sampling problems. Enterprises rarely lay off employees immediately at the beginning of the bad economic situation, but generally choose to reduce wages and working hours first. In this case, the unemployment rate in urban surveys will not rise, but the quality of employment has begun to deteriorate. According to the monthly labor force survey of the National Bureau of Statistics, in June 2019, the average weekly working hours of employed people nationwide were 45.7 hours, 0.6 hours lower than that of the previous month and 0.2 hours lower than that of the same period of last year. However, there is also the problem of insufficient representation of migrant workers due to insufficient samples and sampling deviation, and there are no more employment indicators for reference. In contrast, the US Department of Labor publishes monthly indicators such as average weekly working hours, average weekly salary, full-time and part-time employment, which are comprehensive and can comprehensively reflect the quality of employment.



  2 Other employment data reflect the current employment pressure.


  Considering the limitations of the aforementioned employment indicators, we try to infer the current employment situation from other official and unofficial data.


  2.1 New jobs in cities and towns decreased by 2% year-on-year in the first half of the year, and the growth rate of unemployment benefits and re-employment was not optimistic.


  In the first half of 2019, the number of newly employed people in cities and towns was only 7.47 million, down 2.0% year-on-year, and the target completion rate dropped to 67.0%, down 1.4 percentage points from the first half of last year. In 2003, a statistical system was established for new employment in cities and towns, and the number of new employees in cities and towns = the cumulative number of new employees in cities and towns during the reporting period-the number of natural attrition. The statistics of new employment in cities and towns are not restricted by household registration, and include various forms of employment with a wide caliber, but it cannot be ruled out that someone frequently changes jobs many times in a year. In July 2018, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the number of newly employed urban workers reached a stage high of 2.9%, and then the trend declined. At the beginning of 2019, the cumulative number of newly employed urban workers began to grow negatively, reaching 7.47 million in June, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%. The target completion rate was 67.0%, which was 1.4 percentage points lower than the 68.4% in January-June 2018.


  In the first quarter of 2019, the year-on-year growth rate of the number of people receiving unemployment insurance increased for five consecutive quarters. The number of unemployed people in cities and towns re-employed decreased by 9.1% from January to May 2019, and the number of people with employment difficulties decreased by 4.2%. The recipients of unemployment insurance benefits are employees of urban enterprises and institutions. In the first quarter of 2019, the number of people receiving unemployment insurance benefits was 2.27 million, up 1.8% from the previous month and the same period of last year. Among them, the growth rate of the previous month turned from negative to positive, and the year-on-year growth rate increased for five consecutive quarters. The number of unemployed people re-employed in cities and towns was 2.09 million from January to May 2019, a sharp decrease of 9.1% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate dropped sharply for two consecutive months. In September 2018, the year-on-year growth rate of people with employment difficulties reached a high of 16.2% in recent years, and then began to decline rapidly. In February 2019, the year-on-year growth rate began to turn negative. From January to May 2019, the number of people with employment difficulties was 690,000, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%.






  2.2 manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI employees’ indices are trending downward.


  The PMI employee index reflects the views of enterprises on the scale of current employees compared with the previous period. In June 2019, the manufacturing PMI employee index fell to 46.9%, the lowest since March 2009; Non-manufacturing PMI employees index fell to 48.2%. PMI employee index is one of five sub-indices of PMI, among which manufacturing PMI started to be counted in 2005, with a sample of 3,000 enterprises; Non-manufacturing PMI began to be counted in 2007, targeting 4,000 sample enterprises. 50% is the critical point of expansion and contraction, and a PMI employee index of less than 50% means that more business leaders believe that the number of production and operation personnel is lower than that of a month ago.


  Judging from the manufacturing PMI employee index, the manufacturing PMI employee index has been below 50% for 27 consecutive months since March 2017; In June 2019, it fell to 46.9%, falling for three consecutive months, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month and 2.1 percentage points from the same period last year. Among them, the PMI employee index of large, medium and small enterprises in manufacturing industry began to decline in the second half of 2018, and it was 47.0%, 45.9% and 48.3% respectively in June 2019, down 2.0, 2.4 and 1.9 percentage points respectively year-on-year. Medium-sized enterprises not only had a lower absolute level, but also had a larger decline.


  Judging from the non-manufacturing PMI employee index, the non-manufacturing PMI employee index began to remain below 50% in September 2018, and fell to 48.2% in June 2019, falling for two consecutive months, down 0.1 and 0.7 percentage points respectively from the previous month and the same period last year. Among them, the construction industry PMI employee index began to decline rapidly from 54.1% in March 2019, and fell to 50.4% in June 2019. The service industry PMI employee index continued to be below 50% after July 2014, and began to decline rapidly from 49.7% in August 2018, and fell to 47.9% in June 2019.




  Similarly, in the questionnaire survey of urban depositors of the central bank, the employment perception index and employment expectation index in the second quarter of 2019 were 44.2% and 52.3%, respectively, down 1.6 and 1.5 percentage points from the previous month. The questionnaire survey of urban depositors is a quarterly survey system established by the People’s Bank of China since 1999. Every quarter, 20,000 depositors are selected from 50 cities (large, medium and small) in China as the survey objects, and the employment feeling index and employment expectation index reflect the views of depositors on employment. From the first quarter to the second quarter of 2018, both the employment feeling index and the employment expectation index stopped rising and declined in fluctuations. In the second quarter of 2019, the employment experience index was 44.2%, down 1.6 and 0.8 percentage points respectively from the previous quarter and the same period of last year; The employment expectation index was 52.3%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month and flat year-on-year. In the second quarter of 2019, the proportion of people who chose "good situation and easy employment" in the employment experience index was 15.5%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month and flat year-on-year.




  2.3 Renmin University and Zhilian recruitment CIER index is still at a low level in the second quarter.


  The CIER index is the ratio of recruitment demand to the number of applicants on the Zhaopin recruitment website, which was 1.89 in the second quarter of 2019, although it rose slightly year-on-year, it was still at a low level. CIER index is a China employment market prosperity index jointly launched by the Employment Research Institute of Renmin University of China and Zhaopin. It is obtained by analyzing the data of Zhaopin, and it is a good quality and long-term data in the current unofficial employment statistics. CIER index = total recruitment demand/total number of applicants, with 1 as the watershed. When it is greater than 1, it indicates that the demand for labor in the job market is more than the supply of labor in the market, the competition in the job market tends to ease, and the job market is prosperous. In the second quarter of 2019, the CIER index was 1.89, up 0.21 and 0.01 respectively from the previous quarter and the same period last year. From the perspective of the chain, the increase was mainly due to seasonal factors. After entering the second quarter, the demand for employment increased significantly, and the number of people in need increased by 15.7%. After the peak of rework and job-hopping in the Spring Festival, the growth of job-seeking supply slowed down, and the number of job applicants increased by 2.7%. From a year-on-year perspective, the CIER index in the second quarter of 2019 remained at a low level since the second quarter of 2015.


  In terms of regions, the CIER indices in the eastern, central, western and northeastern regions in the second quarter of 2019 were 1.18, 1.14, 0.92 and 0.66, respectively, which all declined year-on-year, and the eastern region experienced the largest decline; In terms of cities, the CIER indices of first-tier, new-tier, second-tier and third-tier cities are 0.60, 0.94, 1.18 and 1.25, respectively, and the second-tier and third-tier cities have the largest decline; In terms of the nature of enterprises, the CIER index of private enterprises and state-owned enterprises in the second quarter of 2019 was 0.94 and 0.52, respectively, showing a downward trend year-on-year. According to the explanation of the Employment Research Institute of Renmin University of China, the average value of the subentry CIER index is not equal to the overall CIER index, mainly because there may be multiple deliveries by job seekers, and the sum of the subentry job seekers is greater than the overall number of job seekers. In the second quarter of 2019, the CIER indices of the eastern, central, western and northeastern regions were 1.18, 1.14, 0.92 and 0.66, respectively, with the highest employment boom in the eastern region and the lowest in the northeastern region; Compared with the same period of last year, it decreased by 0.28, 0.19, 0.19 and 0.07 respectively, and the employment situation in the east deteriorated the fastest. In the second quarter of 2019, the CIER indices of first-tier, new-tier, second-tier and third-tier cities were 0.60, 0.94, 1.18 and 1.25, respectively, down by 0.11, 0.03, 0.34 and 0.31 percentage points year-on-year, with the second-tier and third-tier cities having the largest decline.In the second quarter of 2019, the CIER indexes of private enterprises, joint ventures, joint-stock enterprises, state-owned enterprises, listed companies and wholly foreign-owned enterprises were 0.94, 0.82, 0.70, 0.52, 0.73 and 0.69, respectively, down by 0.04, 0.05, 0.15, 0.35, 0.29 and 0.23 respectively.




  2.4 Baidu Index job search related keywords surged in the first half of the year.


  Baidu index can reflect the active search demand of netizens, and the search volume of keywords such as "looking for a job", "recruitment", "recruitment information" and "unemployment benefits" increased by 482%, 492%, 80% and 122? %, the employment pressure is prominent, and the employment situation is more severe than in previous years. Baidu Index takes the search volume of netizens in Baidu as the data base and keywords as the statistical object, and calculates the weighted sum of the search frequency of each keyword in Baidu web search, which can reflect the active search demand of netizens. 1) "Looking for a job": The Baidu search index of "looking for a job" keywords in 2015-2018 all rose to the peak of around 40,000 after the Spring Festival, with obvious periodicity. In February, April and June, 2019, the search index of "looking for a job" reached the peak of 274,000, 314,000 and 114,000 respectively, which fluctuated violently. As of July 27, 2019, the overall daily average increased by 482% year-on-year. 2) "Recruitment": The Baidu search index of the word "recruitment" largely represents the search will of job seekers. The index has soared since May 2019, rising from less than 10,000 to the current peak of 161,000, up 492% year-on-year in the past 90 days, reflecting the increased difficulty in finding a job and the prominent employment pressure. 3) "Recruitment Information": "Recruitment Information" can be used to represent the job-seeking needs of blue-collar workers. The peak after the Spring Festival in 2019 is nearly 30 times that of 2015-2018, and the unemployment problem of blue-collar and migrant workers is stronger than in previous years. Since July,The index experienced the second small peak in the year, and the daily average in the past 90 days increased by 80% year-on-year. 4) "Conditions for receiving unemployment benefits": The search volume of "Conditions for receiving unemployment benefits" has soared since March 2019, and the daily average value of the search index from March to July is about 2.3 times that of the same period of last year, with a year-on-year increase of 122% in the past 90 days, which means that the number of unemployed people has increased and the employment situation has deteriorated. Therefore, the current employment situation is more severe than in previous years, and the number of job seekers seeking unemployment protection and switching to various recruitment and recruitment websites has increased significantly.






  The economic downturn will further put pressure on the job market, but the possibility of mass unemployment is very low.


  3.1 The current economic and financial situation is grim, and the labor market will be further under pressure.


  The current economic and financial situation is grim. In the second quarter of 2019, the GDP growth rate dropped to a new low of 6.2%, down 0.2 percentage points from the first quarter. Moreover, the impact of the trade war escalated again in May and the intensive introduction of real estate financing tightening policies has not yet appeared. Recently, leading economic indicators have declined, such as real estate sales, land purchase and funding sources, PMI orders and PMI export orders. Moreover, the economic and financial structure is deteriorating. For example, the proportion of medium and long-term loans of enterprises has declined, while the proportion of short-term loans and short-term financing has increased; PPI goes down, and corporate profits decline. In the second quarter of 2019, the real growth rate of GDP was 6.2%. After a short period of stabilization in the first quarter, it was 0.2 percentage points lower than that in the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year, the lowest point since the quarterly accounting of GDP was implemented in 1992, and it will go down again. The main reasons for the economic downturn are: the short-term inventory recovery is suppressed by the second half of the financial leverage cycle, the export effect of Sino-US trade friction appears, and the real estate investment inflection point appears due to the continuous tightening of real estate regulation. Although the issuance of special bonds has made great efforts, the land revenue has declined, and it is expected that the rebound of infrastructure will be limited, making it difficult to hedge the downward trend of the economy. From the data in June, although economic indicators such as consumption and investment have stabilized, they are still in a downturn, and leading indicators have declined. Among them, the PMI new order index was 49.6% in June, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; Real estate sales in June was -2.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points from the previous month, but it was still negative.And recently, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have comprehensively tightened major financing channels such as bank loans, trusts and overseas debts, and the real estate financing situation in the second half of the year is grim; The medium-and long-term loans of newly-increased enterprises were 375.3 billion yuan in June, a year-on-year decrease of 24.8 billion yuan. The proportion of medium-and long-term loans of enterprises fluctuated at a low level, the loan structure deteriorated, and financial institutions’ distrust of enterprises increased. (See the report of Evergrande Research Institute in July, Born in Worry-Macro Outlook in 2019, Fully Estimating the Severity of the Current Economic and Financial Situation-Fully Interpreting the Economic and Financial Data in June).




  Although the continuous reduction of labor supply will alleviate the employment pressure, the economic slowdown will lead to a further slowdown in labor demand and further pressure on the job market, but it is unlikely that large-scale unemployment will occur. The working-age population aged 15-59 in China reached a peak of 940 million in 2011, and decreased by 4.29 million annually from 2012 to 2018, with a total decrease of 30.06 million. The labor participation rate (economically active population/population aged 15 -64) gradually decreased to 76.2% in 2018, and the scale of labor supply continued to decrease. The economically active population in China reached a peak of 806.94 million in 2016, and the total number of employed people reached a peak of 776.4 million in 2017. From the perspective of the relationship between economic growth and employment, due to the larger economy and the transformation of economic structure to service industry, although the number of new urban jobs created by unit GDP growth has increased significantly, the downward economic growth has led to a significant slowdown in the growth rate of urban employees and non-agricultural employees. In 2011-2018, the number of newly created urban jobs increased from 1.29 million to 2.06 million, and the number of newly created urban jobs increased from 1.29 million to 1.49 million, which was basically stable in the last three years. The number of newly created non-agricultural jobs decreased from 1.74 million to 960,000, the growth rate of urban employees decreased from 3.54% to 2.25%, and the growth rate of non-agricultural employees decreased from 3.43% to 1.11%. However, as long as the policy is properly handled and no major systemic risks occur, the downside of subsequent economic growth is relatively limited.The possibility of mass unemployment is very low.




  3.2 The employment pressure of some industries and key groups will be further highlighted.


  In terms of industries, the employment in manufacturing industry is mainly affected by the downturn in exports and the decline in profits of PPI companies. The construction industry is affected by the limited space for infrastructure recovery and the decline in real estate investment, and the follow-up is not optimistic; According to Zhaopin’s recruitment data, the recruitment demand in the financial industry decreased by 39.7% and 37.0% in the first and second quarters respectively, and the Internet/e-commerce decreased by 22.5% and 13.6% respectively. 1) manufacturing industry. In 2017, the employment of manufacturing industry accounted for 26.3% of the employment of urban non-private units. Affected by the global economic downturn and Sino-US economic and trade frictions, exports continued to be sluggish. In the first half of 2019, exports were 0.1% year-on-year, down 9.8 percentage points from 2018; Among them, exports to the United States were -8.1% year-on-year, down 19.4 percentage points from the whole year of 2018. According to estimates, a 25% tariff on $250 billion of goods will affect the employment of 1.99 million people; If a 25% tariff is imposed on $550 billion of goods, it will affect the employment of 4.2 million people, especially the employment of manufacturing industries such as electromechanical and machinery, and the industrial chain is shifting from China to Viet Nam and other places. From the perspective of corporate profits, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by -2.4% year-on-year from January to June 2019, down by 19.6 percentage points compared with the same period of last year. The decline in corporate profits will suppress manufacturing employment. 2) Construction industry. In 2017, the employment in construction industry accounted for 15.0% and 18.9% of the employees in urban non-private units and the number of migrant workers respectively.From January to June, the investment in infrastructure (including water, electricity and gas) was 3.0% year-on-year, and it is expected to continue to rise with the support of the new regulations on special debts; However, the land revenue has fallen sharply, tax reduction and fee reduction have made local governments’ finances tight, and the continuation of local hidden debts has been strictly controlled, and there is limited room for infrastructure investment to rebound. From January to June, the growth rate of investment in real estate development dropped to 10.8%. Weak sales, negative growth in land purchase, and constrained financing of housing enterprises mean that real estate investment will continue to decline slowly in the future. 3) Financial industry and IT industry. According to Zhaopin’s recruitment data, the recruitment demand in the financial industry decreased by 39.7% and 37.0% respectively in the first and second quarters of 2019, especially in the situation of strict financial supervision. Internet/e-commerce recruitment demand decreased by 22.5% and 13.6% respectively. In addition, the demand for real estate/construction/building materials/engineering and computer software in the second quarter decreased by 15.9% and 13.9% respectively.






  From the perspective of key groups, the scale of college graduates continues to hit a new high, the growth rate of migrant workers slows down but their age is aging, the scale of "4050" personnel rises, and the employment pressure is greater. In terms of college graduates, the number of college graduates (including graduate students) climbed from 880,000 in 1999 to 8.34 million in 2019. Considering that the enrollment of ordinary colleges and universities (including graduate students) increased from 8.03 million to 8.77 million in 2015-2018, the scale of college graduates will continue to reach a new high in the next few years. Because some students’ skills are difficult to adapt to the employment requirements, the pressure of "difficult employment" continues to rise. In terms of migrant workers, the scale of migrant workers increased from 240 million in 2010 to 290 million in 2018, and the growth rate slowed down from 5.4% to 0.6%. However, migrant workers with junior high school education or below are more aging and face greater unemployment risks in the economic downturn. From 2008 to 2018, the proportion of migrant workers over 50 years old rose from 11.4% to 22.4%, and the proportion of 41-50 years old rose from 18.6% to 25.5%. In terms of "4050" personnel, the scale and proportion of "4050" personnel have basically continued to rise, and they are old, with low academic qualifications and single skills, and are prone to long-term unemployment. Among them, from 2003 to 2018, the proportion of women aged 40-59 to women aged 15-59 increased from 38.0% to 47.5%, and the proportion of men aged 50-59 to men aged 15-59 increased from 16.4% to 22.3%.Together, the proportion of the working-age population aged 15-59 rose from 27.1% to 34.6%.




  3.3 Policy recommendations


  Generally speaking, in the face of the complicated and severe internal and external situations such as Sino-US trade friction, high macro leverage ratio, increasing downward pressure on the economy, and the critical period of reform and opening up, it is necessary to strengthen countercyclical adjustment through fiscal and monetary policies, and also to maintain strategic strength to prevent flooding. The most important thing is to unswervingly promote reform and opening up, further liberalize market access, restore entrepreneurial confidence, stimulate new growth points such as new economy and service industry, and promote a virtuous circle of economic growth and employment increase. Specifically:


  First, further vigorously optimize the business environment, promote the implementation of tax reduction and fee reduction, and smooth financing channels, so as to give full play to the role of enterprises as the main body of stable employment, especially private and small and medium-sized enterprises. Private and small and medium-sized enterprises are the main body to attract employment, but the business environment has deteriorated in the past few years, including being injured to some extent in the past deleveraging, capacity reduction and environmental protection storms, and the continued downturn in exports has increased their survival pressure, coupled with poor financing channels and liquidity stratification. Although the government has issued a number of policies to bail out private and small and medium-sized enterprises, the effect of the policies remains to be seen. Therefore, the proactive fiscal policy should continue to promote the implementation of tax reduction and fee reduction, and the more profitable enterprises are, the more they should "release water to raise fish". Monetary policy should continue to unblock the transmission mechanism from wide money to wide credit, increase the structural reform of financial supply side, and intensify efforts to solve the problems of financing difficulties and high financing for private and small and medium-sized enterprises. In addition, we should continue to vigorously promote innovation and entrepreneurship, increase entrepreneurial support, and promote employment through entrepreneurship.


  Second, increase the opening up of the service industry, especially the financial, educational, medical and telecommunications industries; Accelerate the construction of metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations with big cities as the core, increase the density and frequency of economically active population to promote agglomeration, and give full play to the role of service industry in absorbing employment. In 2012, the number of employees in the secondary industry in China reached its peak, and then it completely relied on the tertiary industry to absorb the labor transferred from the primary industry and the secondary industry. In 2018, the proportion of employment in the primary, secondary and tertiary industries in China was 26.1%, 27.6% and 46.3% respectively. The proportion of employment in the tertiary industry was far from the average level of 74.5% in high-income economies, and there was a broad space for employment. On the one hand, it is necessary to increase the opening-up of the service industry at home and abroad, and vigorously deregulate it. At present, China’s manufacturing industry is basically open to the outside world, while its service industry is relatively low. There is still a lot of room for opening to the outside world in the fields of automobile, finance, high-end clothing, energy, architectural design, medical care, education, telecommunications, internet, press and publication, radio and television, express delivery and so on. On the other hand, the development of most service industries needs agglomeration more than industrial development. We should accelerate the construction of metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations with big cities as the core, promote the further agglomeration of industries and population, and form an industrial division system in which core cities develop high-end service industries, small and medium-sized cities develop manufacturing industries and some service industries.


  The third is to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, not only to prevent excessive financial bubble, but also to prevent active puncture from causing major financial risks. Recently, a series of tightening policies for real estate financing have been introduced intensively, from overseas debt, trust and credit to comprehensive tightening. At present, on the one hand, it is necessary to prevent money from releasing water to stimulate the real estate bubble, on the other hand, it is also necessary to prevent active puncture from causing major financial risks. If it is punctured actively, the Sino-US trade friction will not continue. Ten crises and nine real estates, the housing market value in China is about 300 trillion yuan, the stock market is about 60 trillion yuan, and the bond market is about 70 trillion yuan. Old-fashioned seeks the country to exchange time for space, stabilize land prices and stabilize expectations, and use the time window to promote housing system reform and long-term mechanism. At the same time, normal business should be allowed to develop, and irregular business should be carried out step by step, with the front door open and the back door closed, rather than across the board. At present, it is especially necessary to support M&A financing. The merger of unfavorable assets or problematic projects between enterprises is the main force to resolve bad and financial risks, and it is impossible to rely on the state to resolve them.


  Fourth, solidly promote the large-scale enrollment expansion of higher vocational colleges, implement large-scale vocational skills training, and promote the transformation of labor skills to meet the needs of industrial transformation and upgrading. According to the requirements of the Government Work Report of 2019 on the large-scale enrollment expansion of 1 million people in higher vocational colleges, in May, the Ministry of Education and other six departments jointly issued the Implementation Plan for the Special Work of Enrollment Expansion in Higher Vocational Colleges, emphasizing that "developing higher vocational education is a strategic move to alleviate the current employment pressure and solve the shortage of highly skilled talents", which is mainly aimed at fresh high school graduates, secondary vocational graduates, retired soldiers, laid-off workers and migrant workers. In the same month, the General Office of the State Council issued the Action Plan for Vocational Skills Upgrading (2019-2021), which further emphasized that "vocational skills training is a key measure to maintain employment stability and alleviate structural employment contradictions", and required that more than 50 million subsidized vocational skills trainings be conducted in three years, including more than 15 million in 2019.



This article first appeared on WeChat WeChat official account: Zeping Macro. The content of the article belongs to the author’s personal opinion and does not represent Hexun.com’s position. Investors should operate accordingly, at their own risk.

(Editor: Wang Zhiqiang HF013)

Ceng Guoxiang out! Wu Junru became a director? How many secrets does "YaoYaoLing" have?


Special feature of 1905 film network   The film that will land in the Lunar New Year archives on December 29th recently held its first press conference in Beijing. Chen Kexin and Wu Junru appeared as producer and director respectively, and with the blessing of Mahua FunAge, the national expectation value of this film increased greatly.

 

I just suddenly felt something was wrong, huh? Isn’t Ceng Guoxiang the director of this film? How did it become Wu Junru’s directorial debut? Isn’t she the producer+starring? In addition, it has been rumored that the starring papi sauce is also a screenwriter of the film. How did this suddenly change people?


Papi sauce’s real name is Jiang Yilei

 

Of course, at that time, the film was also called "Sister Ling made a scene in your house", but no matter from the main lineup or the previous promotional film, it was definitely the same movie as "YaoYaoYaoLing".

 

We all have good memories. Don’t think that if we change our names, we won’t know you!

 

Here, Brother Dao just wants to ask the film side, who made this film and who made it up? After all, "YaoYaoYaoLing" is about to be released in the mainland, but the audience has to spend real money to buy tickets, so how can they have the right to know?

 

So, when did this Rashomon begin? Come on, draw a key point:

 

Some netizens found out that the words "New Works Produced by Chen Kexin and Directed by Ceng Guoxiang" were left in the synopsis column on the Douban platform of "YaoYaoling".

 

The screenshot of the watercress information of the earliest "Sister Ling makes a scene in your house" was not intercepted, but when some netizens took a screenshot the day before yesterday, the name of "Sister Ling makes a scene in your house" has changed to another name of "Yaoyaoling", and the director of the film has turned into Wu Junru, but in the synopsis, it still says "the new work directed by Ceng Guoxiang", and the screenwriter column is still papi sauce (real name is Jiang Yilei).

 

The previous Douban entry of YaoYaoLing

 

The latest entry of YaoYaoLing

 

Of course, the synopsis of Douban has been updated to the latest version, and the writers have been replaced by Zhou Yunhai, Muchun Zha and Wang Yixing.

 

Ceng Guoxiang’s studio photos exposed by various actors were always there from the beginning of filming to the end of filming.

 

Boot photo

 

Studio photo

 

Killing photos

 

Zhang Yi, the leading actor, once wrote an article in his WeChat WeChat official account, mentioning that Ceng Guoxiang was the film director. At that time, the title of Chen Kexin and Wu Junru were more clearly defined, so how could it not arouse the speculation of us "people who eat melons"?

 

On January 27th, 2017, actor Zhang Yi made it clear in his New Year message that he had devoted himself to the filming of "Sister Ling makes a scene in your house", which was produced by Chen Kexin and Wu Junru and directed by Ceng Guoxiang.

 

As the star of the film, it is impossible for Zhang Yi to sign a contract. He has been filming on the set. I still don’t know who the director is, right?

 

Love Zhang Yi, this "real hammer" has not been deleted.

 

If all this is not enough to prove that Ceng Guoxiang is the director of this film, then look at the photo carefully, and you will find the words [Director: Ceng Guoxiang] impressively in the photo.

 

Then how did Ceng Guoxiang get out?

 

Conjecture 1

 

The film style can’t be discussed properly, the director loses the dominant position in the film, and Ceng Guoxiang is forced or takes the initiative to out.

 

In April this year, before the screening of the feature film, there was a propaganda film "Sister Ling made a scene in Meng Gui Fang". At that time, the name of the director did not appear, and the positions of Chen Kexin and Wu Junru were only producer. It seems that at that time, the film has decided to abandon Ceng Guoxiang, but as for who will take over, it has not been decided yet. Of course, this is also a wild guess by Brother Dao. If it is right, it is purely a coincidence.

 

This earlier version of the promo is quite different from the first trailer recently exposed by YaoYaoYaoLing. "Ling Jie makes a scene in Meng Gui Fang" is full of Hong Kong flavor, full of Hong Kong retro style. YaoYaoLing is closer to the aesthetic habits of mainland audiences.

 

In fact, as early as April 9th this year, Ceng Guoxiang accepted a question from the 1905 Film Network at the Hong Kong Celebration. At that time, he clarified that "Sister Ling made a scene in Meng Gui Fang" was not his work, and this collaboration with Chen Kexin was just to help. Ceng Guoxiang also said that as a creator, it is most important to find the story he wants to shoot, and he prefers to shoot the story he wants to express.

 

From this point of view, it is also possible that Ceng Guoxiang lost the leading role of "Sister Ling makes a scene in your house", which led to the final style and direction of the film, which was quite different from Ceng Guoxiang’s expectation. In the end, Ceng Guoxiang could only give up the film voluntarily.

 

Conjecture 2

 

There was a help agreement before, saying, "we are logging tired", and the director changed people?

 

Two days ago, at the press conference of YaoYaoLing, Chen Kexin and Wu Junru kept silent about the beginning and end of Ceng Guoxiang out, and they shared the interesting story of shooting YaoYaoLing — — Wu Junru laughed and said that the couple had quarreled for an hour in the bathroom on the set because of the film, while Chen Kexin admitted that during the process of "supervising the work", parents often felt like protecting their children.


As for Ceng Guoxiang, in addition to publicly thanking her husband Chen Kexin for his advice, Wu Junru singled out another person who gave him a lot of help, that is, Ceng Guoxiang, a new Hong Kong director.

 

Most mainland audiences are familiar with the name Ceng Guoxiang, which should begin with the painful youth love film July and An Sheng, which was a great success in 2016. This work also helped Zhou Dongyu and Sandra win the Golden Horse Award for Best Actress, and director Ceng Guoxiang also won many awards and nominations. Chen Kexin is one of the producers of July and An Sheng. At that time, there were various reports praising Chen Kexin for taking the new director.

 

When YaoYaoLing was also called "Sister Ling made a scene in Meng Gui Fang", many media reported that Chen Kexin once again escorted the new film directed by Ceng Guoxiang.


Now, the play is finished and will be released, but Ceng Guoxiang has changed from a director to a friend to help!

 

In Ceng Guoxiang’s Weibo message, many fans who eat melons also raised the same question. Ceng Guoxiang also responded to this matter in Weibo: "We are all a family, please call me whenever you have something". When we later asked the film propagandist for proof, the other party also gave the answer of "family".

 

In the film industry, especially in Hong Kong, there are still many stories about "one family" helping each other. Take Chen Kexin, the producer of this film, as an example. When he created the film, he personally certified the Hong Kong director Liu Weiqiang to help him a lot. In the "Golden Harvest Prosperity" in the 1980s, Sammo Hung, as the eldest brother, also gave Jackie Chan and others similar assistance in the early creative stage. It can be said that the friendship of "family" can be regarded as a special "culture" passed down in this circle.

 

Only this time "YaoYaoYaoLing" is different. After all, at the beginning of shooting, the starring role of this film has been sealed, and Ceng Guoxiang is the director. However, on the eve of the release, the director changed the controlling person from the film to a passerby who helped, which is not the same as the so-called clear help between the two sides. However, it is obviously unreasonable for the film side to explain it with only one sentence: "we are logging tired".

 

The director was changed, which is nothing new in the film circle. In the early years, there were media reports that Chen Kexin replaced the original director Chen Desen, and Liu Weiqiang was the top one. However, rumors are always difficult to get a positive response from the parties, but time has proved everything. No matter what is right or wrong, the director of guillotines is Liu Weiqiang.

 

"Family" is a good word, and "family" seems to be kind to direct a movie. But today, when we pay more and more attention to intellectual property rights, even a "family" wants to know how everyone divides their work in the movie and doesn’t want to bury anyone’s talent.

 

For what reason did Ceng Guoxiang, who has been following the "Sister Ling" crew to the final stage, quit this project? Since he helped a lot, why didn’t the director Wu Junru+Ceng Guoxiang? How much did Wu Junru shoot and how much did Ceng Guoxiang help?

 

Brother Dao thinks that the film has an obligation to explain to the public that, after all, the audience is the one who ultimately spends money, and the director is also an important indicator for the audience to enter the cinema.

 

Finally, I also wish the YaoYaoLing, which will be released in the mainland on December 29th, a big sale.