Connect Tianshui’s innovative dish "Gansu Mala Tang" to the whole country.

  Line up for spicy food.

  Tempting Gansu mala Tang.

  "Bouquets of vegetables" are one after another, and enthusiastic diners are one after another. After Tianshui Mala Tang went out of the circle, this "sky-splashing flow" also began to flock to Lanzhou, and the passenger flow of major Mala Tang shops in the city continued to rise obviously. Embracing this wave of traffic dividends, on March 20th, famous local restaurants in Lanzhou took advantage of the situation to offer a new "Gansu Mala Tang" and add another fire with innovative dishes. Even the University of Science and Technology Beijing, thousands of miles away, issued an official announcement, "The campus canteen window, authentic Tianshui Mala Tang in Gansu, is officially launched"!

  A Lanzhou hot spicy dip famous store huo Shang Jia huo

  When visiting Lanzhou, Jin Lan Mala Tang in Anning District must be on the must-eat list.

  At noon on March 19, looking at the endless diners, Ms. Chen, a citizen of Lanzhou, lamented: "Jin Lan Mala Tang, which is deeply loved on weekdays, has become more popular recently!" This is an old-fashioned Mala Tang shop in Lanzhou. The proprietress’s name is Wen Jinlan, and she is from Longnan, Gansu Province. She has been here for more than 20 years. After the hot spicy dip in Tianshui, more and more diners came here, and sometimes they even had to wait in line for an hour to eat.

  In order to meet the huge passenger flow, it is normal for Wen Jinlan to get up early for nearly 20 hours every day. The reason why it is popular, in the view of the proprietress Wen Jinlan, is because of "popular taste, everyone likes it". The raw materials such as Gangu pepper, Wudu Dahongpao pepper, vermicelli specially customized from Dingxi and grain vinegar produced nearby have jointly contributed to the mouth-watering "spicy and hot".

  "A large pot of vegetables, all kinds of ingredients wrapped in red juice, a spoonful of crisp sour radish, and the smell of oily spicy seeds between chopsticks directly hit the taste buds." Every meal, Yanji Mala Tang in Zhengning Road, Chengguan District, all the tables inside and outside the store are full. Many people ask, after more than 30 years of opening, people are so popular that there must be an exclusive secret recipe, right? Mr. Zeng, the boss, said frankly: "My wife and I are out-and-out Jianyang people in Sichuan. We have lived in Lanzhou for decades. We improved and adjusted the proportion of juice according to the tastes of local people, which reduced the hemp degree of pepper. It brings together Gansu local materials such as Dingxi Kuanfen and Gangu Chili, forming a unique flavor of Gansu Mala Tang. "

  B Lanzhou local catering enterprises innovate dishes.

  On March 20th, Duanji Hotel in Yantan, Lanzhou officially launched the new dish "Gansu Mala Tang". Yang Guoyan, Chairman of the Folk Food Committee of Longcai Association and Deputy General Manager of Lanzhou Duanji Catering Management Co., Ltd., told Benben News reporter: "In order to meet this wave of traffic, we have developed a new dish close to Tianshui Mala Tang, with ingredients such as Gangu Chili, Dingxi Kuanfen and Qin ‘an Zanthoxylum. As a Longcai hotel, our goal is to create a ‘ Ganwei hot spicy dip ’ The alternative ingredients will be more extensive, adding lily, yak meat and so on. " Yang Guoyan said that many employees in the store are from Tianshui. Through repeated trial production for many days, this new product has been officially launched.

  "After Tianshui Mala Tang is on fire, how can we seize this wave of traffic and continue to undertake this heat to Lanzhou? In fact, we still have to work hard on product innovation." Yang Guoyan said, "Gansu is more delicious than mala Tang, Wuwei ‘ Three sets of cars ’ , Zhang Ye ‘ Stir-fry firecrackers ’ , Longnan stirred up the group … … Longshang cuisine has a long history. How to make use of this mala Tang craze to make all kinds of snacks in Gansu known to more people and promote them to the whole country requires not only the help of the cultural tourism department, but also the joint efforts of the catering industry and other departments. "

  C "Gansu Mala Tang" online orders skyrocketed.

  According to the data of Meituan, since March, the search volume of keywords related to "Gansu Mala Tang" has increased by 18.5 times from last month, and the number of public comments has soared by 13.2 times. The take-away orders of Gansu Mala Tang increased 66 times from last month. Beijing, Xi ‘an, Jinan, Shanghai and Tianjin are the top five cities in search volume.

  At the same time, the popularity of Tianshui Mala Tang has also driven the growth of local cultural tourism consumption. The booking volume of travel orders in Tianshui City, Gansu Province increased by 71.8% compared with the same period of last year. Among them, the order volume of hotels and homestays increased by 73.6% year-on-year, and the order volume related to scenic spots increased by 216.8% year-on-year. Maijishan Grottoes, Fuxi Temple, Maijishan Hot Springs, Xianrenya and Yuquan Temple are the top five scenic spots in terms of order volume. Shaanxi, Henan, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Ningxia, Beijing and Sichuan are the top provinces and cities in the source of off-site orders.

  On various social platforms, many netizens called for authentic Gansu Mala Tang to be eaten in their hometown, and called on Tianshui people to open stores in their hometown. Some physical stores that see business opportunities are trying to seize the opportunity … …

  Gansu Beijing Office, located in Beijing Feitian Mansion, has recently put up "Gansu Mala Tang", attracting many netizens to taste the punch card. And a female shopkeeper from Tianshui also decided to open a Gansu Mala Tang restaurant in Sanlitun, one of the hottest business districts in Beijing, which is expected to be officially opened in half a month.

  On March 19th, University of Science and Technology Beijing issued a document saying that "Gansu Tianshui Mala Tang" will be launched in the school cafeteria at noon. In order to reflect the authenticity, the school emphasized that "soul juice" is all from Gansu, and it brings together two ingredients of Tianshui, namely Gangu pepper and Qin ‘an pepper. The potato powder is elastic and smooth, Gangu chili pepper is full of oil, and the most delicious thing is the intersection of fresh hemp and Qin ‘an pepper. In fact, as early as 2012, the school established a fixed-point assistance relationship with Qin ‘an County, Gansu Province, and purchased Qin ‘an pepper every year. This year, a new potato powder procurement project was added, and the canteen master went to the local area for research and study, bringing students a better experience.

  Searching with "Gansu Mala Tang" as the key word through Tianyanchao platform, in the past three months, there have been more than 200 new Mala Tang shops in China. Among them, since February this year, there have been more than 150 newly opened Gansu Mala Tang shops in China. According to the data of Tianyancha Professional Edition, up to now, there are more than 9,600 mala Tang related enterprises in Gansu, while there are nearly 900 related enterprises in Tianshui City alone.

  Text/Figure Benliu News Lanzhou Morning News reporter Xu Jingwen

Opinions of Beijing Municipal People’s Government on Doing a Good Job in Promoting Employment at Present and in the Future

Jing Zheng Fa [2018] No.30

District People’s governments, municipal government commissions, offices and bureaus, and municipal institutions:

  In order to thoroughly implement the Supreme Leader’s Socialism with Chinese characteristics Thought in the New Era and the spirit of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, fully implement the decision-making arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on stabilizing employment, take multiple measures simultaneously and comprehensively, and ensure the smooth completion of the employment objectives and tasks in this city and the sustained and stable employment situation in the current and future period, according to the spirit of "Several Opinions of the State Council on Doing a Good Job in Promoting Employment in the Current and Future Period" (Guo Fa [2018] No.39), combined with the actual situation, the following implementation opinions are put forward:

  First, support the stable development of enterprises

  (1) Increase the support for stabilizing posts. Since January 1, 2019, 50% of the unemployment insurance premium actually paid in the previous year can be returned to the insured enterprises that have not laid off employees or laid off fewer employees. From January 1 to December 31, 2019, for the insured enterprises that face temporary production and operation difficulties and are expected to recover, and insist on not laying off employees or reducing layoffs, the return standard can be determined according to the monthly per capita unemployment insurance premium and the number of insured employees in the previous year of this city for six months.

  (2) Continuously optimize financial services. Improve the policy financing guarantee system, increase the scale of financing guarantee for small and micro enterprises, guide more financial resources to support entrepreneurial employment, and further alleviate the problem of financing difficulties for small and micro enterprises. Banks and other institutions that have made outstanding achievements in the work of business guarantee loans may be rewarded according to 1% of the newly issued business guarantee loans in that year.

  (3) Guiding and stabilizing labor relations. Strengthen the supervision and management of enterprises’ implementation of the labor contract system and the collective contract system, encourage enterprises to carry out collective consultations with employees, urge enterprises to protect the legitimate rights and interests of employees according to law, further build harmonious labor relations and stabilize employment.

  Second, encourage entrepreneurship to drive employment

  (four) increase the support for the discount of business guarantee loans. Small and micro enterprises registered and operated in this city, when the number of newly recruited people who meet the application conditions for business start-up guarantee loans reached 25% of the existing employees (15% for enterprises with more than 100 employees) and signed labor contracts with them for more than one year, can apply for business start-up guarantee loans with a maximum of 3 million yuan according to the standards of the number of recruited people and the amount of each person not exceeding 150,000 yuan, and the discount funds will be borne by the finance. Increase the maximum amount of personal small convenient loans from 100,000 yuan to 150,000 yuan.

  (5) Strengthen the construction of entrepreneurial carriers. Accelerate the construction of business incubation carriers for key groups and provide low-cost venue support, guidance services and policy support for entrepreneurs; According to the number of entities, the incubation effect and the employment effect, the business incubation base will be rewarded. Support areas with stable employment pressure to provide free business venues for unemployed people to start their own businesses. Strengthen the construction of the "Growth Enterprise Market for College Students" in this city’s regional equity market, and provide professional services such as project incubation, capital docking, equity custody, training and guidance for entrepreneurial enterprises.

  Third, carry out skills training to improve the quality of employment

  (six) support enterprises in difficulty to carry out skills training for employees. From January 1 to December 31, 2019, difficult enterprises can use the education funds of enterprise employees to carry out on-the-job training for employees by themselves or by entrusting institutions with corresponding training qualifications in this city. Employees who have obtained corresponding vocational qualification certificates or vocational skill grade certificates after training shall be subsidized by their enterprises according to 50% of the subsidy standard for technical skill upgrading; To carry out non-level skills training and each person’s training time is not less than 20 class hours, and give enterprise subsidies according to the standard of 500 yuan per person.

  (seven) to encourage workers to improve their professional skills. From January 1, 2019 to December 31, 2020, the application conditions for technical skills upgrading subsidies in this city were relaxed from employees of enterprises who participated in unemployment insurance for more than 3 years to those who participated in insurance for more than 1 year; Persons with employment difficulties in urban and rural areas in this city who have not received unemployment insurance benefits can enjoy cost of living allowance, which is not less than that in 35 yuan, per person per day during the training period, and cost of living allowance policy only enjoys it once per person per year.

  (eight) to mobilize social forces to participate in vocational training. Support all kinds of vocational colleges (including technical colleges), ordinary colleges and universities, vocational training institutions and qualified enterprises to undertake vocational skills training or entrepreneurship training for unemployed people and rural migrant workers, and give vocational training subsidies according to regulations. The subsidy standard is determined according to the training cost, training duration, market demand and obtaining relevant certificates. Timely study, adjust and enrich the catalogue of vocational training subsidies, and expand the benefits of policies.

  Fourth, accurate policy to help employment

  (nine) to expand the scope of employment trainee subsidies. From January 1, 2019, the scope of employment trainee subsidies will be expanded from unemployed college graduates who have left school to registered unemployed people aged 16-24 and rural laborers who have transferred employment registration; Organize them to participate in employment internships for no more than 12 months, give employment internship subsidies according to regulations, and appropriately raise the subsidy standards.

  (ten) to improve the employer’s post subsidy standards. Employers will be encouraged to recruit people with employment difficulties in urban and rural areas, retired soldiers and laid-off workers from enterprises, and the post subsidy standard will be raised from 5,000 yuan per person per year to 8,000 yuan per person per year.

  (eleven) to promote the employment of rural labor. Vigorously develop industrial projects with quick results and high returns to help rural laborers find jobs nearby. Encourage outstanding young people to return to their hometowns to start businesses and promote farmers’ employment. Broaden the channels for rural labor to transfer employment, support rural labor who are willing to go out for employment in urban public service posts, and implement relevant policies such as post subsidies and social insurance subsidies. Give full play to the role of rural public welfare posts and enhance the ability to provide care for rural people with employment difficulties.

  V. Optimizing services to boost employment

  (twelve) the implementation of permanent service. Unemployed people in this city and rural laborers who require the transfer of employment can apply for unemployment registration, transfer of employment registration and other businesses in the social security offices in the streets (towns) of their permanent residence, enjoy employment and entrepreneurship services nearby, and apply for employment and entrepreneurship support policies at the municipal level and in the districts where their permanent residence is located. People with employment difficulties in urban and rural areas can receive employment assistance in their permanent residence.

  (13) Improve service quality. Actively use the "internet plus" model, build a network service platform for employment and entrepreneurship, promote departmental information sharing, streamline work links, and reduce application materials, so that "information runs more and people run less errands". Actively carry out policy propaganda, announce the policy list, bidding process, subsidy standard, service organization and contact information, supervise the complaint telephone number to the society, go deep into enterprises to preach policies, understand difficulties, solve problems, do a good job of helping, and promote the implementation of various employment policies and services.

  (fourteen) to ensure the basic livelihood of the people in need. We will fully implement the unemployment insurance system and steadily raise the level of unemployment insurance benefits. A temporary living allowance of 3,000 yuan will be given to registered unemployed people who have difficulties in life and do not meet the conditions for receiving unemployment insurance benefits. We will integrate urban subsistence allowances, rural subsistence allowances, and low-income family identification systems, expand the scope of assistance, lower the threshold for assistance, and timely include families that meet the minimum living guarantee conditions into the minimum living guarantee scope. Improve the city’s temporary assistance system, give temporary assistance to qualified personnel, and help people in need to get out of trouble.

  Sixth, improve the safeguard mechanism

  (15) Strengthen organizational leadership. Give full play to the role of the municipal social security and employment work leading group, improve the working mechanism, and make overall plans for the analysis, policy formulation, guidance and inspection of the city’s employment situation. The relevant municipal departments and district governments should earnestly assume the main responsibility of promoting employment, strengthen communication and close cooperation, and do their best to promote employment.

  (sixteen) to strengthen publicity and guidance. Guide enterprises to stabilize employees’ employment through transformation, training and job transfer, and support "double innovation"; Guide workers to establish a correct concept of employment, actively improve their employment skills, and realize employment and entrepreneurship through their own efforts. It is necessary to mobilize the forces of all sectors of society to form a joint force to promote employment.

  (seventeen) optimize the financial security. Comprehensively sort out the existing capital projects that guarantee basic living, promote employment and stabilize employment, and on the basis of maintaining policy continuity and stability, merge and simplify the capital projects and use methods to improve the efficiency of capital use. Strictly implement the real-name management of employment assistance targets and effectively ensure the safe operation of funds.

the people’s government of beijing city

December 20, 2018

Omicron iterates fast, can COVID-19 vaccine market learn from the "flu model"

BA.4 and BA.5, the new branches of Omicron with stronger communication power, have recently attracted attention. The new branch has triggered a new infection peak in South Africa, and the Portuguese National Institute of Health also estimates that its growth advantage is 13% more than that of BA.2.

Screenshots from the nextstrain website show that the different Omicron branches represented by yellow, orange and red are iterating rapidly within half a year, and the new branches represented by orange and red are also expanding in the cracks.

Screenshot of nextstrain website. According to the uploaded sequencing data, since December last year, the mainstream branches in Omicron have gradually changed from BA.1 (shown as 21K) to BA.2 (shown as 21L) to BA2.12.1 (shown as 22C), and the area occupied by new branches is also expanding.

The new branches of Omicron are frequent. Is the current COVID-19 vaccine still effective? Do the branches BA.2 and BA.5 need their own vaccines? Should the update of COVID-19 vaccine keep up with the variation of virus? How to keep up with the virus mutation? With the above questions, the reporter of Science and Technology Daily contacted and interviewed a number of industry experts.

Is the current vaccine still effective?

Does the mutation branch in Omicron constantly trigger new infection peaks, which means that the current COVID-19 vaccine will be invalid?

Authoritative experts in the industry responded to the Science and Technology Daily reporter and said: "Current vaccines can still provide the most basic protection in ensuring the reduction of severe illness and death.. The epidemic in COVID-19 has been going on for two and a half years. At present, it seems that there is no possibility for Covid-19 to achieve zero infection through vaccination. COVID-19 vaccine can ensure the effect of reducing infection and avoiding serious illness and death. "

Regarding the role of the current vaccine in epidemic prevention and control, the person in charge of vaccine-related production enterprises in COVID-19 holds the same view: "The existing vaccine is no problem in preventing severe illness and death at present, but it will not be 100% anti-infection."

Many statistics or research results from the real world show that the current vaccine plays a significant role in preventing severe illness and death. For example, the latest data in Hong Kong (as of May 25th) showed that the mortality rate of those infected in Omicron who were not vaccinated was 3.04%, while the mortality rate of those infected with three doses of vaccine dropped significantly to 0.04%.

Do the branches BA.2 and BA.5 all need their own vaccines?

According to WHO’s latest weekly report on epidemiological progress in COVID-19 (May 25th),Omicron BA.2 and its progeny pedigree (BA.2.X) have become the main popular variants in the world.At present, the relative proportions of BA.2.X, BA.4 and BA.5 are 94%, 0.8% and 1% respectively.

This shows that during the evolution of Omicron mutant, the branch BA.1 is disappearing. However, the reporter learned that at present, most vaccines against Omicron in China are designed and developed for BA.1.

Whether it is necessary to develop new vaccines for new branches, the industry generally judges from the perspective of vaccine protection: if the activity of neutralizing antibodies produced by the original vaccines against mutant strains is greatly reduced, it is necessary to develop new vaccines; If it still has a good neutralizing effect on the mutant, there is no need to develop a new vaccine.

Although Omicron strain mutates rapidly and different branches appear, butNew vaccines will not be introduced for each branch, and there is no need to do so.. Relevant experts reminded: "If you continue to monitor, you will find that many mutations will disappear soon."

Can vaccine update keep up with virus iteration?

In the technical route of vaccine development in COVID-19, the design cycle of mRNA vaccine is short. On the basis of a mature platform, the design can be completed within 7 days, and the preclinical trials including animal experiments can be completed in about one month.

Industry experts engaged in the research and development of mRNA vaccine said that for the variant branch, the mRNA vaccine does not need to obtain the strain, but only needs to optimize the vaccine sequence according to the variant sequence and test the expression efficiency, and then pre-clinical trials can be carried out. Covid-19 Omicron mutant mRNA vaccine, developed by Suzhou Aibo Bio, China, has been approved for clinical research in UAE.

In response to virus variation, the technical route of inactivated vaccine can also complete the preclinical study of new strains in a short time by establishing an emergency system. The reporter previously learned that it can be advanced to the clinical trial application stage about 2 months after obtaining the new strain.

Keep up with the variation, can COVID-19’s vaccine market learn from the "flu model"

In order to cope with the frequent mutation of viruses, there are precedents for vaccine updates to follow closely. For example, the influenza virus vaccine is recommended by WHO every year, and countries produce new influenza vaccines accordingly.

In order to keep up with the variation in Covid-19, can the "flu model" be used for reference in the marketing of vaccines in COVID-19?

It is estimated that the future development of COVID-19 vaccine needs to adopt the influenza model.The authoritative experts mentioned above responded, but WHO is unable to recommend mainstream strains through monitoring now, because the pandemic is not over yet.

Another advantage of the "flu model" is that it greatly shortens the time to market for new vaccines. Because there is no need for re-approval, its batch issuance system can effectively shorten the period from vaccine development to marketing. Experts in the industry said that after polishing and construction, various technical routes and platforms have gradually matured, the research and development speed has been accelerated, and the production process has been stable.If the "flu model" can be adopted in the development and marketing of vaccines in COVID-19, the time to market for new vaccines will be greatly shortened.

WHO has revealed some unexpected phenomena in its weekly epidemiological report: available data show that BA.4, BA.5 and BA.2.12.1 spread faster in countries where BA.1 was once prevalent, but less in countries where BA.2 was prevalent; The vaccination degree of each country may have an impact on the popularity of the new branch of Omicron. Visible,Covid-19 mutation and vaccine immunogenicity are mutually causal and widely related, and updating the vaccine in time may have an impact on virus mutation.

Source: Science and Technology Daily

Original title: "Omicron iterates fast, is it necessary to be" anxious "about the vaccine? 》

Read the original text

North American box office: "Mr. Glass" topped the "Dragon Ball Super" fans.

1905 movie network news Last weekend (01.18-01.20), the box office revenue in North America totaled $129 million, up 8.2% from the previous week. Monday is Martin Luther King Memorial Day, and we will continue to have a holiday. Among the new films on the list, M Knight Shamalan’s new film "Mr. Glass" earned $40.58 million in the first three days of the first weekend, which was close to $40.01 million in the first week of "Split" in 2017 and higher than $30.33 million in the first week of "Never Die" in 2000. Not surprised or pleased. The media mostly think that the content is too full and too anxious, but there is no emotional touch. They think that they are not attracted to fans of "The Dead Robber" or "Split" and become ungrateful at both ends. Another new film is a slightly niche animated film "Dragon Ball Super: brolly". The plot is based on the animated series "Dragon Ball". After telling the story of Wukong and brolly, it is biased towards fans. In the first week, it won 10.65 million US dollars in 1233 theaters in North America, but it attracted a limited audience and was not optimistic about its subsequent box office development.

ranking

film

Weekend box office

(USD)

Cumulative box office

(USD)

Number of release weeks

this week

last week

one

new

Mr. glass

40.58 million

40.58 million

one

2

one

Uplink

15.67 million

43.98 million

2

three

new

Dragon Ball Super: brolly

10.65 million

21.07 million

one

four

2

Aquaman

10.33 million

304.3 million

five

five

four

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

7.25 million

158.2 million

six

six

three

A dog’s way home

7.11 million

21.27 million

2

seven

five

Escape Room

5.27 million

40.7 million

three

eight

six

Happy Man 2

5.24 million

158.7 million

five

nine

seven

Bumblebee

4.66 million

111.5 million

five

10

eight

Gender-oriented

3.96 million

16.87 million

four

11

nine

Mule

3.5 million

96.92 million

six

twelve

15

Green Book

2.26 million

41.97 million

10

Source: boxofficemojo


"Mr. Glass" is too full of word of mouth, and the fans of "Dragon Ball Super: brolly" are serious


Recommended star rating of Mr. Glass: ★★★

"Dragon Ball Super: brolly" Recommended star rating: ★★★ (specific fan direction)

 

On the weekend of Martin Luther King’s Day, M Knight Shamalan’s new work "Mr. Glass" earned 40.58 million US dollars at the box office in North America from Friday to Sunday, which was close to 40.01 million US dollars in the first week of "Split" in 2017 and higher than 30.33 million US dollars in the first week of "Never Die" in 2000. In all the Martin Luther King Memorial Weekends, this box office ranked third, only behind the $41 million of "Sasaki Brothers" in 2014 and the $89 million of "American Sniper" in 2015. The production cost of Mr. Glass is $20 million, and the global box office has reached $90 million. These figures undoubtedly prove Shamalan’s ability to make money again. In fact, even in the low tide of Shamalan’s poor reputation, many of his films were very profitable. For example, in 2008, the production cost of "Death" was 48 million US dollars, and the final global box office was 163 million US dollars. In 2004, the production cost of "Mystery Village" was 60 million US dollars, and the final global box office was 256 million US dollars. What he really didn’t earn was only.

 

At present, the cinema score of Mr. Glass is B, IMDb score is 7.2, MTC score is 42, and the freshness of rotten tomatoes is 36%. "Hollywood Reporter" commented: "As the final part of the trilogy, this film is like a mixed bag, twisting all the previous narrative clues into one, but unfortunately trying too hard to tell the audience that Shamalan has a very special idea on the popular comic adaptation story, but the result is not shown." "Variety" said: "It’s still very happy to see Shamalan return, but" Mr. Glass "takes up more of our time, but it can’t create any touches, which makes people feel busy and dazzling, but there are few moving moments of emotional resonance." "International Screen" thinks: "Apart from McEvoy’s performance as a smoke bomb and Bruce Willis’s convincing charm, the whole film has actually not gone far in the concept of’ what happens when people become superheroes’." Due to the poor reputation, the follow-up box office track of Mr. Glass may be more similar to the Clover Files, which was opened on the weekend of Martin Luther King’s Day in 2008. The film earned $40 million in the first week and $80 million in the local box office.

Another noteworthy new film last weekend was the classic IP cartoon "Dragon Ball Super: brolly", which was only opened in 1,233 theaters in North America, aiming at clearly attracting a specific fan base, and won $10.65 million at the box office in three days in the first weekend. The story of "Dragon Ball Super: brolly" is a continuation of the upcoming TV animation "Dragon Ball", which tells the story between Saiyan brolly and Wukong. The film was nominated for the best cartoon in the 42nd Japanese Film Academy Award and was very popular among fans. At present, the media scores and fans’ scores of all platforms are very high, with IMDb score of 8.6, MTC score of 64 and the freshness of rotten tomatoes of 80%. The Los Angeles Times said: "brolly is ready to give Dragon Ball fans everything they want in a movie, and other viewers may feel lost in this world." Midwest Film Journal also thinks: "For the novice Dragon Ball, this film provides a dazzling animation time." There are also some media that don’t like it, such as "Movie Country", which means: "This is a meaningless garbage culture animation only for fans."

 

Old movies: "Neptune" local over 300 million "Upward" has a strong box office stamina.

 

Warner Bros.’ s superhero movie Neptune has entered its fifth week. After the weekend, the film’s box office outside North Captain America: Civil War has reached 759 million US dollars, surpassing’s 745 million US dollars, and the local box office has also exceeded 300 million US dollars. At present, the film’s global total box office is 1.063 billion US dollars, which is still 3 million US dollars short. Amber Heard’s Neptune can surpass Johnny Depp’s highest-grossing Pirates of the Caribbean: The Coffin. At the same time, Aquaman is also the movie with the strongest box office stamina after Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: The Age of Mutations in 2014. It is expected that Aquaman will have a good room for growth before The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part and Listen to Men’s Hearts come out on February 8.

 

In the following week, Upward Bound kept quite steady, with the box office of $15.6 million in three days over the weekend, which was only 23% lower than that in the first week. Earlier, many films in kevin hart fought bravely in Martin Luther King’s weekend, such as the above-mentioned Sasaki Brothers, Customized Best Man and Sasaki Brothers 2, and so on. This time, Upward Bound was opened in this schedule one week ahead of schedule. At present, the total box office of Upward is US$ 43.98 million. As long as it exceeds the US$ 48.7 million of Supersize Beauty last year, it will become the third domestic box office of STX Entertainment after bad mother and Christmas of Bad Mom. Sony’s Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse currently has a global box office of US$ 322 million, which has surpassed The LEGO Batman Movie’s US$ 311 million. The production cost of Spider-Man is US$ 90 million.

 

This week’s preview: Adventure "King Boy" Playing through the thriller "Quiet" arouses expectations.


This weekend (01.25-01.27), Fox’s youth movie "King Boy" and Matthew McConaughey and Anne Hathaway’s crime thriller "Quiet" will be widely opened in North America.

 

Fox’s "The King’s Boy" tells the story of a little fat boy, Alex, who accidentally pulls out and passes on the "sword in the stone" mentioned by H. As a destined little hero, he needs to unite his friends and the legendary wizard Merlin to fight against the eccentric witch Morgana. This is a story from modern times to legend, which will be opened in more than 3,400 theaters in North America this Friday. The crime thriller "Quiet" starring Matthew McConaughey and Anne Hathaway was postponed from last October to this week. It tells the story that Baker Dill, the captain of a fishing boat, received a request from his ex-wife Karen to help her kill her violent current husband. Karen’s appearance was forgotten in Jandyr, but in fact, the current situation is also city by the sea. The film will open in more than 2500 theaters this Friday.


Introduction to the sub-forum on fire safety

10moon17The 9th china international forum on work safety Fire Safety Sub-forum, hosted by the Fire Rescue Bureau of the Ministry of Emergency Management and undertaken by the China Fire Protection Association, was held in Hangzhou, Zhejiang. Experts and scholars from domestic and foreign fire protection fields had in-depth exchanges around "strengthening fire accident prevention and promoting the development of fire protection". Zhou Tian, Chief Engineer of Fire Rescue Bureau of Emergency Management Department, presided over the sub-forum, and Chen Weiming, President of China Fire Protection Association, attended and delivered a speech. Responsible persons of fire departments of fire brigades, responsible persons of fire research institutes and fire product conformity assessment centers, as well as representatives of relevant scientific research institutions, research institutions and enterprises.300More than 200 people attended the sub-forum, and at the same time, the Japanese Fire Protection Association, national fire protection association, the International Federation of Fire Protection Associations and German were invited.VDSExperts and scholars of certification bodies.

Zhou Tian said that this forum is the first large-scale international forum held after the establishment of the Emergency Management Department. During this period, a sub-forum on fire safety was established for the first time, which fully reflected the concern and attention of the Emergency Management Department to the fire-fighting cause and the integration and docking of fire-fighting work and safety production work.

Chen Weiming said in his speech that as the organizer of this china international forum on work safety fire safety sub-forum, it is very meaningful for China Fire Protection Association to provide a high-standard communication platform for fire professionals from all corners of the country.

This sub-forum on fire safety invited domestic fire departments, scientific research institutes, universities, fire-fighting enterprises and fire-fighting experts and scholars from overseas to hold.14The keynote speech included not only the latest achievements in fire risk analysis and prevention and control technology research of high-rise and underground buildings, petrochemical enterprises, large-scale urban complexes and new energy vehicles, but also smart fire protection construction, external wall insulation materials, fire accident investigation, volunteer fire brigade management and certification of domestic fire protection products entering overseas markets, which are all hot, difficult and focus issues in current fire safety work.

Participants in the sub-forum said that it is very rare for Chinese and foreign counterparts to have such an exchange opportunity. Through one day’s discussion and exchange, they not only enhanced mutual understanding, but also enhanced cooperation and friendship, and gained a lot.

 

In the field of hope | "data control" plays "new" agriculture

CCTV News:During the harvest season, many new farmers are active in the vast fields. They are using newer ideas, better technology and more scientific management mode to change the traditional agricultural planting methods and harvest their own "bumper life".

PPT will be put on first in the meeting. Data and flow are high-frequency words that pop up from time to time in the discussion. You may not think that this group of young people with an average age of less than 29 are actually dealing with land every day.

Li Ting is the head of this team. After graduating from Jiangxi Agricultural University in 2015, she went to an eco-agricultural company in Guangdong. At the end of 2016, Li Ting resigned and returned to his hometown Yingshang County, Anhui Province to start a business.

Compared with the traditional farmers facing the loess and facing the sky, Li Ting’s team is labeled as a "new farmer". The 11 members are all university graduates, including those who study agriculture, finance and journalism. In Li Ting’s view, their advantage lies in making good use of data to guide farming.

Data becomes new agricultural materials to help traditional agricultural production

Then, how did Li Ting and his team apply the new agricultural material "data" to farming? Let’s continue to read the report.

The cycle of crop growth, the change of market conditions, the performance of sales terminals and the portrait of customer groups are as important to Li Ting and his team as seeds, fertilizers and pesticides. At present, this 200-acre spinach is just the harvest that Li Ting and others "grabbed" with data. Before, because of the continuous high temperature, the sprouting rate of edamame was not good even after two crops were planted in the field, and it was about to be harvested.

In order to make good use of data, a new agricultural resource, Li Ting has set the development direction of "market-oriented, order-based planting". Although the planting structure of seedlings of pepper, chestnut pumpkin, Trichosanthes kirilowii and cauliflower has been adjusted, it can ensure that all the seedlings are "explosive". There are jobs in the greenhouse all year round, and more than 60 villagers have a relatively stable job.

The action of "two strengths and one increase" helps new farmers "wisdom" to cultivate land

In order to further improve the efficiency of vegetable planting, Li Ting and others are going to upgrade the previous greenhouse, but the upfront investment in facility agriculture is very large, and the cost of upgrading the digital greenhouse is even higher. How did they solve the problem of funds?

Just when Li Ting’s team was at a loss for funds, Anhui Province launched the action of "strengthening agriculture by science and technology, strengthening agriculture by machinery and increasing farmers’ income", providing a series of policies and financial support for digital agriculture projects.

With the support of various policies and funds of the local government, Li Ting’s base has gradually established a digital seedling factory, a cold storage room, a movable seedbed, an automatic sprinkler system and a visual Internet of Things system. These "new farm tools" exchanged for real money have made farming more scientific and technological and easier.

Just last year, Li Ting became a science and technology correspondent in Yingshang County, and his base has also become a local exhibition area for promoting modern agriculture. Almost every week, people come to visit and study.

Digitalization empowers new farmers to become farmers.

Li Ting and his friends have used what they have learned to become new farmers, realizing their own value and driving more and more people around them.

At present, the planting base of Li Ting has grown to 560 mu, and the surrounding planting area is 3,000 mu driven by radiation. Everyone knows that following Li Ting, there is no need to sell vegetables.

In the past two years, in addition to the flourishing facilities vegetable project, Li Ting and his team have successively transferred more than 2,000 mu of cultivated land, planting staple foods such as rice and wheat. Growing vegetables and raising seedlings, they already have rich experience and stable sales channels. Why should they go out of the comfort zone? Li Ting’s goal in mind is not small.

Li Ting, head of Anhui Yingshang Shili Ecological Agriculture Technology Co., Ltd.:We do field crops mainly based on the consideration of "digital" farmland, and we want to digitally empower in the field. At the same time, there is no need to panic when we have food in our hands, and the issue of national food security is also our responsibility as a new farmer.

How to choose the flu vaccine? Which is more suitable for you?

Since March 2021, the influenza activity in southern and northern provinces has been higher than that in the same period in 2020, and since September, the level of influenza activity in southern provinces has shown an obvious upward trend. The risk of overlapping epidemic of COVID-19 epidemic and influenza and other respiratory infectious diseases still exists this winter and next spring. Recently, it coincided with a large-scale cooling in China, and the flu vaccine quickly "warmed up". However, how to choose a flu vaccine that suits you?

I. Types of domestic influenza vaccines

At present, there are trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV3), tetravalent inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV4) and trivalent live attenuated vaccine (LAIV3) approved for marketing in China.

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Among them, trivalent influenza vaccine is suitable for children and adults over 6 months, which can prevent influenza caused by two influenza A viruses (H1N1, H3N2) and one influenza B virus (Victoria).

Four-valent influenza vaccine has more protection against one type of influenza B virus (Yamagata) than three-valent influenza vaccine, but the current four-valent influenza vaccine in China needs to be over 3 years old to be vaccinated.

Second, the way of influenza vaccine administration

At present, there are two ways to administer influenza vaccine in China, one is traditional injection and the other is nasal spray.

Among them, the nasal spray method is unique to the nasal spray influenza vaccine, which was only listed in China in August 2020, but it is not the first in China. It has existed abroad for a long time (the United States and the European Union approved the use of nasal spray influenza vaccine in 2003 and 2012, and both of them are tetravalent), but the market share has not been high. This vaccination method can effectively avoid puncture and "needle fainting" caused by injection, but as for whether it can really make children not afraid of getting flu vaccine, it seems that it is not. Although it doesn’t seem to hurt, the nasal mucosa is also very sensitive, and the way of "nasal spray" is not necessarily more comfortable than intramuscular injection. It is difficult for children to ensure the accuracy of vaccination dose, and the technical operation requirements for vaccinators are relatively high.

Third, the safety of influenza vaccine

Influenza-like vaccines are all split or subunit, that is, inactivated vaccines. After years of practice, the safety of all kinds of inactivated vaccines is relatively high. Its contraindications are limited to allergies to vaccine ingredients, and there is no restriction on egg allergies. Even during pregnancy and some elderly people with basic diseases are recommended to be vaccinated.

Then let’s take a look at the new nasal spray influenza vaccine: this vaccine simulates the process of natural influenza infection. After the vaccine is atomized, it enters the body through the nasal cavity, and the first barrier is mucosal immunity, and then cellular immunity and humoral immunity are generated by activating lymphocytes. However, this means that the nasal spray vaccine must be an attenuated live vaccine. From the point of view of safety, attenuated live vaccine may expel vaccine virus strains after inoculation, and occasionally it is reported that the live virus discharged from the vaccinator is transmitted to the uninoculated. Therefore, it is not recommended to vaccinate children with severe immunocompromised patients with nasal spray influenza vaccine.

Relatively speaking, the live attenuated vaccine has more contraindications (rhinitis, asthma, immune problems, etc.), and the range of people who can be vaccinated is narrower. The vaccination age range of this vaccine is 3-17 years old, which directly avoids children under 3 years old and the elderly who may have basic diseases. Pregnancy is also a contraindication. Even people who have used anti-influenza drugs such as oseltamivir and zanamivir (or traditional Chinese medicine with antiviral components) 48 hours before vaccination are not recommended to be vaccinated with this nasal spray vaccine.

Some foreign researchers have summarized the cases of influenza still diagnosed after receiving nasal spray vaccine or attenuated live vaccine or inactivated vaccine for injection. Among 17,173 patients aged 2-17, 4,579 received inactivated vaccine by injection, 1,979 received nasal spray vaccine or live attenuated vaccine, and 10,615 were not vaccinated. It was found that the effectiveness of inactivated vaccine for injection against influenza A (H1N1) was 67%, and the effectiveness of nasal spray vaccine or attenuated live vaccine was 20%. Compared with the recipients of inactivated vaccine by injection, the probability of infection with influenza A (H1N1) is significantly higher among those vaccinated with nasal spray vaccine or live attenuated vaccine.

Fourth, the effectiveness of influenza vaccine

As far as the effectiveness of protection scope is concerned, the tetravalent influenza vaccine containing four influenza virus strains (two types A and two types B) is better than the trivalent influenza vaccine containing three influenza virus strains (two types A and one type B).

Based on five studies from 2013 to 2016, the effect of nasal spray vaccine or live attenuated vaccine on influenza A (H1N1) is lower than that of inactivated vaccine by injection in all children’s age groups. Therefore, the American ACIP (Advisory Committee on Immunization Practice) did not recommend nasal spray influenza vaccine in 2016-2017 and 2017-2018.

A meta-study published online in Pediatrics in January 2019, entitled "Live Attenuated and In Activated Influenza Vaccination Effectiveness", recorded the reasons (and reviewed Meta) why AAP and CDC did not recommend nasal influenza vaccine in 2016-17 and 2017-18.

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Please see the figure below for a detailed comparison list.

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(Click to view larger image)

Finally, to sum up:Under the age of 3, there is no choice but to get trivalent flu vaccine. Above 3 years old, tetravalent vaccine is definitely the first choice in terms of protection effect. However, the price of trivalent vaccine is half cheaper than that of tetravalent vaccine (50 yuan VS110 yuan). If the money is not bad, then choose tetravalent vaccine. As for the nasal spray vaccine, if you are over 3 years old and under 17 years old, you happen to be "dizzy" or have extreme fear of injection, then it is much better to vaccinate the nasal spray vaccine than to do nothing.

 References:

1.Chung JR, Flannery B, Ambrose CS, Bégué RE, Caspard H, DeMarcus L, Fowlkes AL, Kersellius G, Steffens A, Fry AM; Influenza Clinical Investigation for Children Study Team; Influenza Incidence Surveillance Project; US Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network. Live Attenuated and Inactivated Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness. Pediatrics. 2019 Feb; 143(2):e20182094. doi: 10.1542/peds.2018-2094. Epub 2019 Jan 7. PMID: 30617239; PMCID: PMC6361354.

2. Yang Penghui, Yang Lufang. Study on immune defense mechanism of respiratory mucosal infection of influenza virus. International Journal of Immunology, 2006,72(5):294-298.

3. Technical Guide for Influenza Vaccination in China (2020-2021)

4.https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/nasalspray.htm

5 Changchun 100 grams of biological nasal spray attenuated trivalent influenza vaccine instructions

Hollywood’s "Big Five" in 2023: Which movies lost money and which ones sold well?

North America is the largest film market in the world, and it is also the main battlefield to test the success or failure of a Hollywood film. Generally speaking, there are two institutions that regularly publish box office data of North American film market: the website Box Office Mojo mainly collects and counts the data reported by publishers themselves; Comscore, a media company specializing in collecting and analyzing all kinds of data, collects daily box office data from the cinema, which is also the main source of box office data for American media.

Traditionally, Comscore’s annual report will not be released until the first Tuesday of the new year, that is, January 2, 2024, local time in the United States, but it is said that the total box office in North America will basically fall between $9.03 billion and $9.05 billion in 2023. As for Box Office Mojo, because of the time difference, the North American box office figure in 2023 on this website is still at $8.905499 billion for the time being, but I believe it will be further updated in a few days.

"Baben Harmo"

Looking back on the key words of North American movies in 2023, the first one was "Baben Harmo": two commercial blockbusters with irrelevant contents and types collided head-on in the same schedule, and the result was not that they changed, but that they successfully ignited the audience’s enthusiasm together and became a phenomenal movie event in 2023. Barbie, produced by Warner Bros. Film Company, finally became the North American box office champion in 2023 with a score of $636 million, while Oppenheimer, produced by Universal Pictures, ranked fifth in the annual box office list in North America with $326 million.

The success of the two works has its own reasons, but to sum up, it is nothing more than abandoning the routine and highlighting the new ideas. Together with Universal Pictures’ Super Mario Bros. Movie, which ranked second in North America’s annual box office list with US$ 574 million, these three works can be said to have high original value.

Although Barbie comes from a world-famous popular toy, Super Mario Bros. Movie is based on a well-known video game of the same name, and the protagonist of Oppenheimer has already gone down in history because of the atomic bomb, they are not actually sequel to the movie or remakes of old movies, which can attract the audience to buy tickets and rely on real original stories and designs.

Stills of Super Mario Bros. Movie

In sharp contrast, in 2023, a lot of blockbusters failed at the box office, almost all sequels and series of works. In addition to the superhero movies that have completely tired the audience aesthetically, Raiders of the Lost Ark 5 and Mission Impossible 7 have also failed to achieve satisfactory box office results.

The total box office in North America in 2023 is definitely the highest in North America since the epidemic subverted the film industry, far better than the $7.46 billion in 2022 and $4.56 billion in 2021. However, such achievements have not returned to the level before the epidemic.

Historically, the box office in North America has steadily exceeded $10 billion every year since 2009, and since 2015, this figure has exceeded $11 billion every year. Before the epidemic, in 2019, although the box office performance of North American movies has been severely squeezed by the streaming media market, the box office of the whole year can still easily reach 11.4 billion US dollars.

On the surface, it seems that the main reason is that the number of films released by Hollywood studios is getting smaller and smaller every year: only 88 films were released on a large scale in 2023, while in 2019, the box office reached 10.5 billion US dollars, which was 108, a full 20 more. However, I really want to say, even if there are 20 more new films in 2023, will it be guaranteed that the box office will increase by 2 billion US dollars? Who can say that these 20 films will get an average of $100 million at the North American box office each?

Movies like Barbie and Oppenheimer can persuade people to pay for tickets because they can only appreciate the beauty of light and shadow when they are watched on the big screen, and the same is true for Taylor Swift: Time Tour Concert, which became a dark horse at the box office near the end of the year. In 2023, when the streaming media service is becoming more and more mature (and saturated), how many movies must be experienced in the cinema in the eyes of the audience? Below, we will look at it according to the winners and losers list of the five major Hollywood manufacturers.

Universal Pictures International

Wins: Super Mario Bros. Movie ($575 million), Oppenheimer ($326 million), Five Nights of the Teddy Bear ($137 million) and Megan ($95 million).

Negative: Speed and Fury 10 ($146 million), Renfield ($17 million), Demeter’s Last Voyage ($13 million).

According to film companies, Universal Pictures, which won $1.93 billion in 2023, topped the North American box office list. With the blockbuster films such as Super Mario Bros. Movie and Oppenheimer, Universal has occupied about 22% of the box office share in North America, slightly overwhelming Disney and winning the first prize since 2015.

Oppenheimer stills

In 2023, Universal occupied two seats in the top five most popular films in North America. In addition, the innovative thriller Megan, which cost only $12 million, also earned nearly $100 million at the box office, while Five Nights of the Teddy Bear turned the cost of $20 million into a box office of $137 million, making them the two most cost-effective movies in 2023.

Of course, Universal also made some mistakes in 2023, and the tenth The Fast and the Furious series was exhausted, but the production cost was getting higher and higher, reaching a shocking $340 million, which erased a lot of the annual bonus of Universal.

In 2024, Kung fu panda 4’s "Daddy Thief 4" and other works will be listed around the world, and there is still a chance to win the championship again.

Disney

Wins: Galaxy Guard 3 ($359 million), The Little Mermaid ($297 million), Crazy Element City ($154 million).

Negative: Captain Surprise 2 ($84 million), Indiana Jones 5 ($174 million), Star Wish ($61 million), Haunted House ($68 million).

2023 is Disney’s centenary birthday, which should have been a year worth celebrating. Various commemorative movies, books and activities were also arranged in advance. However, the overall commercial achievements released at the end of the year made 2023 a year when Mickey Mouse fell to the altar.

Since the annual box office accounted for 26% in 2016, Disney has become the sole overlord of Hollywood in the past few years by relying on its fist products such as Marvel Comics and Pixar; The peak appeared in 2019, accounting for 33.3% of the box office. Seven of the top ten films in the world were produced by Disney, and the box office of each film exceeded $1 billion, leaving the other Hollywood giants completely behind.

However, with the arrival of COVID-19, everything came to an abrupt end. Three years after the epidemic, Disney’s box office share was only 11%, 20% and 18% respectively. However, at that time, Disney’s box office declined because of the external factors of closed cinemas and filming stoppage, which can be said to be a crime of no war. By the end of the epidemic in 2023, Disney’s box office still accounts for only 16%, so you can only find the reason from yourself.

The most serious problem is naturally the continuous downturn of the Marvel movie universe. From "Ant Man 3" at the beginning of the year to "Captain Surprise 2" at the end of the year, all of them lost their eye-catching characteristics in the past, and the latter even became the worst box office in the history of Marvel Comics movies, which made Disney CEO Bob Iger admit that at the previous stage, they really made a big mistake of focusing only on quantity and ignoring quality. At the same time, it also reminds opponents once again that there has never been any panacea in Hollywood, and the tastes of the audience are changing rapidly. Sitting on one’s laurels and standing still is doomed to die.

"Galaxy Guard 3" poster

On the whole, among the top ten box offices in North America, Disney still has the illusion that "Guards of the Galaxy 3" ranks fourth, "The Little Mermaid" ranks sixth and "Ant Man 3" ranks eighth, and there is still the illusion that "the skinny camel is bigger than the horse". However, excluding the special circumstances of the epidemic for three years, this has become the first year since 2014 that Disney has not had any film with a global box office exceeding the $1 billion mark.

Of course, Disney’s advantage is that it has acquired a large number of high-quality assets through mergers in the past few years. After being acquired by Disney, 20th Century Fox, which originally belonged to the ranks of the six Hollywood manufacturers, was renamed 20th Century Pictures, and its box office was also included in the Disney Group’s evaluation. In 2023, they released three works, Cabinet Devil, Venetian fright night and AI Creator. Together with the release of Avatar 2 in early 2023, they earned about $400 million in North American box office. Including this part, Disney accounted for about 21% of the annual box office in North America, ranking second.

Warner Bros.

Wins: Barbie ($636 million), Nun 2 ($86 million), Meg 2 ($82 million), Wonka ($143 million).

Negative: The Flash ($108 million), The Blue Beetle ($72 million), Shazam 2 ($57 million), Aquaman 2 ($85 million).

With Barbie, the highest box office in North America in 2023 (the film also won the annual global box office champion with a box office score of $1.44 billion), Warner failed to become the North American box office champion in 2023, ranking third with only $1.4 billion and a share of about 15.24%. I am afraid that the reason can only be attributed to the poor box office performance of DC superheroes.

"Barbie" stills

In addition to Barbie, in 2023, Warner also tasted a lot of sweetness in the horror film Sister 2 and the family movie Wonka. However, they invested about $660 million in the production cost of the four DC films, The Flash, The Blue Beetle, Shazam 2 and Aquaman 2. As a result, the global box office revenue of the four films was less than that of the 2016 Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice ($874 million).

In 2024, Warner will publish Dune 2, Godzilla vs. king kong 2, Clown 2 and other works, which hopefully will lead to a comeback.

Sony pictures

Wins: Spider-Man: The Vertical and Horizontal Universe (US$ 381 million) and The Wronger 3 (US$ 92 million).

Negative: Silly Money ($13 million) and Escape from Cretaceous ($32 million).

In 2020, when the world was in chaos, Sony Pictures once became the biggest winner in the North American film market, gaining more than 20% market share. After that, in 2021, they also continued to be in the forefront. However, in 2022, when everything is slightly back on track, Sony’s market share has retreated to the fifth place. In 2023, the situation is slightly better than that of Paramount, which is at the bottom. The annual box office of less than $1 billion accounts for about 11% of the market.

Stills of Spider-Man: The Vertical and Horizontal Universe

During the three years of the epidemic, Sony released about 16 or 17 works every year, and in 2023, it rose to 27, far more than any other Hollywood factory, and basically recovered to the level before the epidemic.

The animated film Spider-Man: The Vertical and Horizontal Universe, which was released in June, is a rare Marvel Comics movie that sold well at the box office in 2023. The global box office of "Grievance 3" also reached $190 million, almost the same as the first two films, showing the high popularity of Denzel Hayes Washington Jr.. As for "Napoleon" released at the end of the year, it is not a box office success in itself. After all, the production cost of the film is as high as 200 million US dollars. However, this huge sum of money basically comes from Apple with deep pockets, and Sony is only responsible for issuing, and the package will not be compensated.

In 2024, as usual, Sony will have a wave of new films such as Ghostbusters: The Frozen City, Garfield, Mrs. Spider: Super Awakening, Kraven the Hunter, Venom 3, etc., and the box office should make a breakthrough.

Paramount

Wins: Scream 6 ($108 million), Wang Wang Team 2 ($65 million), Teenage Ninja Turtles: Mutant Fight ($118 million).

Negative: Mission Impossible 7 ($172 million) and Dungeons and Dragons: The Glory of Grand Theft Auto ($93 million).

2023 is really a year to break the Hollywood convention. Not only has the invincible superhero movies been beaten, but even Tom Cruise, which has always been a box office guarantee, has experienced the existential crisis of Lian Po’s old age.

Before the release of "Mission Impossible 7", almost everyone expected that it would be Tom Cruise’s second successful summer file after "Top Gun 2". As a result, "Mission Impossible 7" failed to ignite the enthusiasm of North American people for watching movies on the first weekend, and was quickly defeated by Barbie and Oppenheimer. The most deadly thing is that the epidemic pushed the production cost of the film up to an astonishing $291 million, which caused it to bear an excessive burden before it was released.

Dungeons and Dragons: Glory of Grand Theft Auto poster

The box office failure of Dungeons and Dragons was also somewhat unexpected. After all, the film was adapted from a powerful game IP, and the audience’s reputation after the screening was very good, but perhaps because of the schedule, there was still a lack of enough audience to join in, which made this $150 million film unable to break even.

In the whole year, Paramount released a total of 10 films, with a box office of just over $800 million, accounting for about 9.6% of the total box office in North America, ranking fifth, far below the market share of 17.6% in 2022 with the blessing of Top Gun 2.

In 2024, Paramount will release some blockbuster new films, such as Gladiator 2, Transformers: The First Generation and Sonik the Hedgehog 3, which is expected to turn the tide.

Taylor Swift: Time Tour Concert Poster

In addition to the above-mentioned five Hollywood giants, Lionsgate Pictures, which took 6.55% of the market share, ranked sixth in the annual box office in North America. They released 12 films in the whole year, and "Fast Chasing 4" ranked ninth in the annual single box office in North America with $187 million. Further back, the independent film "Voice of Freedom", which is not unusual in shooting, distribution and publicity, won $184 million at the box office, which just squeezed into the tenth place in the annual single-chip box office list in North America.

Taylor Swift: Time Tour Concert, with the same maverick distribution model, earned $179 million at the box office, ranking 11th in the annual single-chip box office list in North America. Independent films like this broke into the top of the annual box office list for more than ten years, which seems to reflect the coming of the unprecedented changes in Hollywood in N years.

Dare to teach the sun and the moon to change into a new sky | A quick look at the eleventh episode of "Raising the Flag and Orienting" and the twelfth episode of "Wandering Home"

  The 24-episode large-scale documentary feature film "Dare to Teach the Sun and Moon to Change the Sky" was jointly produced by the Propaganda Department of the CPC Central Committee, the Central Party History and Literature Research Institute, the National Development and Reform Commission, the State Administration of Radio and Television, the China Academy of Social Sciences, the Central Radio and Television Station, the Central Archives and the Political Work Department of the Central Military Commission.

  Guided by the Supreme Leader’s Socialism with Chinese characteristics Thought in the New Era, the film fully implements the important exposition of the Supreme Leader’s General Secretary on the history of the Party, adheres to a correct view of the history of the Party, seeks truth from facts, and pays attention to the combination of history and theory. It comprehensively shows the great course, brilliant achievements and valuable experience of the Communist Party of China (CPC)’s unremitting struggle in the past 100 years, deeply reflects the vicissitudes and great changes that have taken place in the land of China with the lofty sentiments of "Dare to teach the sun and the moon for a new day", and makes the Chinese nation usher in a great leap from standing up, becoming rich and becoming strong.

  From June 20th, the film was continuously broadcast at 20: 00 on the CCTV Comprehensive Channel of the Central Radio and Television Station, and the CCTV Record Channel, CCTV News, CCTV Video, CCTV Network, Cloud Listening Client and other new media platforms were launched simultaneously.

  Episode 11: Flag Raising Orientation

  In the middle and late 1980s, with the deepening of reform and opening up and the transformation of economic system, many deep-seated contradictions began to emerge in China.

  Jiang Zemin: "Since the Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee of the Party, the line and basic policies have not changed, and we must continue to implement them."

  It is the common expectation of all people in China that the country is prosperous and the people are safe. Faced with the economic blockade and sanctions imposed by western countries, the Communist Party of China (CPC) people gave a clear answer.

  Jiang Zemin: "The people of China have never and will never succumb to any external pressure."

  The 11th Asian Games opened in Beijing.

  Through efforts, China has effectively responded to external challenges. The sanctions imposed by western countries were finally broken.

  In 1990, Pudong began to accelerate its development and opening up.

  The opening of the two exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen has sent a strong signal to the world that China’s economic reform will move forward unswervingly.

  In the early spring of 1992, 88-year-old Deng Xiaoping visited the South and made a series of important talks.

  Deng Xiaoping: "As long as China does not engage in socialism, reform and opening up, develop the economy, and gradually improve people’s lives, it is a dead end to take any road."

  Talk in the south is like a strong east wind, which dispels the fog in people’s minds.

  In October 1992, the 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of China was successfully held.

  The congress decided that the goal of China’s economic system reform is to establish a socialist market economic system.

  In September 1997, the 15th National Congress of the Communist Party of China was held ceremoniously.

  The Congress established Deng Xiaoping Theory as the Party’s guiding ideology, put forward the Party’s basic program in the primary stage of socialism, and made strategic arrangements for China’s cross-century development.

  Joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) is an important decision made by the CPC Central Committee.

  The Fourth Ministerial Conference of the World Trade Organization: "The Ministerial Conference unanimously adopted."

  On December 11th, 2001, China became the 143rd member of the WTO, which opened a new world to the outside world.

  The people of the Communist Party of China (CPC), with Comrade Jiang Zemin as the main representative, have withstood a series of severe tests from home and abroad and nature, raised and stabilized the great banner of Socialism with Chinese characteristics, and brought a prosperous country into the 21st century.

  Episode 12: Wandering Home

  Realizing the reunification of the motherland is always the unswerving pursuit of the Communist Party of China (CPC) people and the common aspiration of all Chinese people.

  On September 22, 1982, China and Britain formally started the negotiations on the Hong Kong issue.

  On December 19th, 1984, the Joint Declaration on the Question of Hong Kong was signed. The China government announced that it will resume the exercise of sovereignty over Hong Kong on July 1, 1997.

  In the late transition period, the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Jiang Zemin at the core shoulders the great trust of all China people and bravely shoulders the historical responsibility of realizing the smooth return of Hong Kong to the motherland.

   "On behalf of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army troops stationed in Hong Kong, I took over the military camp. You can be laid off and we will take up our posts. I wish you a safe journey."

  Hong Kong citizens: "Happy, back! I am Chinese! "

  Jiang Zemin: "This is a great event for the Chinese nation and a victory for the cause of world peace and justice."

  After a hundred years of vicissitudes, Hong Kong’s successful return to the embrace of the motherland is a great achievement in the history of the Chinese nation. Hong Kong compatriots have since become the real masters of this land of the motherland.

  When the process of Hong Kong’s return started, another wanderer of the motherland — — Macao is also on the way home.

  Jiang Zemin: "The Chinese and Portuguese governments held a solemn handover ceremony of Macao’s political power here, announcing that the China government will resume the exercise of sovereignty over Macao. History will always remember this important moment of world concern. "

  Macao, which experienced negative economic growth for four consecutive years before the reunification and was worried about public security, has one of the fastest economic growth rates in the world since the reunification.

  Taiwan Province is an inseparable part of China.

  In the early 1980s, Deng Xiaoping put forward the concept of "one country, two systems", which opened the door for the development of cross-strait relations.

  Castle peak is the same, and the wind and rain are the same. No matter how the situation on the island changes, the historical trend of realizing the complete reunification of the motherland is irreversible.

  Supreme leader: "history can’t be chosen, we can grasp it now, and the future can be created!" As long as we work together and strive together, we will certainly be able to accomplish the great cause of the motherland’s reunification!

China Employment Situation Report: 2019


  Text: Ren Zeping Xiong Chai Zhou Zhe of Evergrande Research Institute.


  Intern Zhou Xinyi and others contributed to this article.


  guide reading


  In July 2018, Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party put forward the requirement of "six stabilities" to do a good job in economic work, putting "stable employment" in the first place. In 2019, the Government Work Report put the employment priority policy at the macro-policy level for the first time, and asked higher vocational colleges to expand enrollment by 1 million. In May, the the State Council Employment Leading Group was established for the first time, which showed that the central government attached great importance to employment. What is the current employment situation in China?


  abstract


  There are limitations or distortions in judging the employment situation only by official unemployment rate and other data. 1) The registered unemployment rate in cities and towns depends on the unemployed taking the initiative to register with the social and social departments, and it is only for the non-agricultural population. The data fluctuates slightly, and it fell to 3.61% at the end of the second quarter of 2019, which is not related to the economic trend. 2) The urban survey unemployment rate was officially announced from the beginning of 2018, and it continued to be higher than 5% in 2019 and 5.1% in June. However, the survey sample of 85,000 urban households only accounts for 0.03% of the urban employment in China, and the sampling rate is only half of 0.07% in the United States. Moreover, it is not representative of migrant workers and the sampling frame is aging. 3) The recruitment rate depends on the fact that job seekers and employers voluntarily register with local public employment service agencies, and the data shows a long-term upward trend, with limited reference value. In the second quarter of 2019, it was 1.22, both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. 4) To judge the employment situation, we need not only employment quantity indicators such as unemployment rate, but also employment quality indicators such as average working hours, salary growth rate and part-time job ratio, but there are limited indicators to measure employment quality at present.


  Other employment data reflect the current real employment pressure. 1) The number of new jobs in cities and towns decreased by 2% year-on-year in the first half of this year, and the growth rate of the number of people receiving unemployment benefits and re-employment was not optimistic. In the first half of 2019, there were only 7.47 million new jobs in cities and towns, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%, and the target completion rate dropped to 67.0%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points compared with the first half of last year. In the first quarter of 2019, the year-on-year growth rate of the number of people receiving unemployment insurance benefits has increased for five consecutive quarters. From January to May 2019, the number of unemployed people in cities and towns re-employed decreased by 9.1%, and the number of people with employment difficulties decreased by 4.2%. 2) Both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI employee indices tend to decline. In June 2019, the manufacturing PMI employee index fell to 46.9%, the lowest since March 2009; Non-manufacturing PMI employees index fell to 48.2%, falling for two consecutive months. 3) The CIER index of Renmin University and Zhilian recruitment is still at a low level in the second quarter. The CIER index is the ratio of recruitment demand to the number of applicants on the Zhaopin recruitment website, which was 1.89 in the second quarter of 2019, although it rose slightly year-on-year, it was still at a low level. In terms of regions, the CIER indices in the eastern, central, western and northeastern regions in the second quarter of 2019 were 1.18, 1.14, 0.92 and 0.66, respectively, which all declined year-on-year, and the eastern region experienced the largest decline; In terms of cities, the CIER indices of first-tier, new-tier, second-tier and third-tier cities are 0.60, 0.94, 1.18 and 1.25 respectively.Second-and third-tier cities saw the biggest decline. 4) In the first half of 2019, the search volume of job-related keywords in Baidu Index surged. The search volume of Baidu for keywords such as "looking for a job", "recruitment", "recruitment information" and "unemployment benefits" in the past 90 days increased by 482%, 492%, 80% and 122% respectively.


  The economic downturn will further put pressure on the job market. 1) The current economic and financial situation is grim. In the second quarter of 2019, the GDP growth rate dropped to a new low of 6.2%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter. Moreover, the impact of the escalation of trade friction in May and the intensive introduction of real estate financing tightening policies has not yet appeared. Recently, leading economic indicators have declined, such as real estate sales, land purchase and funding sources, PMI orders and PMI export orders. Moreover, the economic and financial structure is deteriorating. For example, the proportion of medium and long-term loans of enterprises has declined, while the proportion of short-term loans and short-term financing has increased; PPI goes down, and corporate profits decline. Although the continuous reduction of labor supply will alleviate the employment pressure, the economic slowdown will lead to a further slowdown in labor demand and further pressure on the job market, although large-scale unemployment is unlikely. 2) From the perspective of industry, the employment in manufacturing industry is mainly affected by the downturn in exports and the decline in profits of PPI-declining enterprises. The construction industry is affected by the limited space for infrastructure recovery and the decline in real estate investment, and the follow-up is not optimistic; According to Zhaopin’s recruitment data, the recruitment demand in the financial industry decreased by 39.7% and 37.0% in the first and second quarters respectively, and the Internet/e-commerce decreased by 22.5% and 13.6% respectively. From the perspective of key groups, the scale of college graduates continues to hit a new high, the growth rate of migrant workers slows down but their age is aging, the scale of "4050" personnel rises, and the employment pressure is greater. 3) Policy suggestions. First, further vigorously optimize the business environment, promote the implementation of tax reduction and fee reduction, and smooth financing channels.Give full play to the role of enterprises as the main body of stable employment, especially private and small and medium-sized enterprises. Private and small and medium-sized enterprises are the main body to attract employment, but the business environment has deteriorated in the past few years, including being injured to some extent in the past deleveraging, capacity reduction and environmental protection storms, and the continued downturn in exports has increased their survival pressure, coupled with poor financing channels and liquidity stratification. Although the government has issued a number of policies to bail out private and small and medium-sized enterprises, the effect of the policies remains to be seen. Second, increase the opening up of the service industry, especially the financial, educational, medical and telecommunications industries; Accelerate the construction of metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations with big cities as the core, increase the density and frequency of economically active population to promote agglomeration, and give full play to the role of service industry in absorbing employment. The third is to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, not only to prevent excessive financial bubble, but also to prevent active puncture from causing major financial risks. Fourth, solidly promote the large-scale enrollment expansion of higher vocational colleges, implement large-scale vocational skills training, and promote the transformation of labor skills to meet the needs of industrial transformation and upgrading.


  Risk warning: the official unemployment rate is limited or distorted, and the policy fluctuates greatly.


  catalogue


  1 there are limitations in judging the employment situation simply by official unemployment rate and other data.


  2 Other employment data reflect the current employment pressure.


  2.1 New jobs in cities and towns decreased by 2% year-on-year in the first half of the year, and the growth rate of unemployment benefits and re-employment was not optimistic.


  2.2 manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI employees’ indices are trending downward.


  2.3 Renmin University and Zhilian recruitment CIER index is still at a low level in the second quarter.


  2.4 Baidu Index job search related keywords surged in the first half of the year.


  The economic downturn will further put pressure on the job market, but the possibility of mass unemployment is very low.


  3.1 The current economic and financial situation is grim, and the labor market will be further under pressure.


  3.2 The employment pressure of some industries and key groups will be further highlighted.


  3.3 Policy recommendations


  main body


  1 there are limitations in judging the employment situation simply by official unemployment rate and other data.


  What is employment? According to the definition of the International Labour Organization, people who have worked for at least one hour in order to obtain labor remuneration or business income during the reference week of the survey, as well as people who are on vacation or temporarily suspended from work but are not working, are regarded as employed persons. Therefore, to judge the employment situation, we need to observe not only the overall unemployment rate, the unemployment rate by age, but also the ratio of job vacancies and job seekers, the average working time of employed people, the salary growth rate and the part-time employment ratio. Although China has improved its employment statistics, there are still obvious problems, which are difficult to fully reflect the real employment situation.


  1) The registered unemployment rate in cities and towns depends on the unemployed taking the initiative to register with the social and social departments, and it is only for the non-agricultural population. The data fluctuates slightly, and it fell to 3.61% in the second quarter of 2019, which is not related to the economic trend. In the early 1980s, China began to establish a registered unemployment system, which was called "unemployment statistics" at that time, and it was changed to "registered unemployment" in 1994. Urban registered unemployment rate = urban registered unemployed/(urban employees+urban registered unemployed). Registered unemployed people in cities and towns are unemployed people who are non-agricultural registered permanent residence, aged over 16 to retirement age, have the ability to work, are unemployed and ask for employment, and voluntarily register with public employment service agencies. Obviously, the registered unemployed do not include migrant workers and other permanent residents, so it is difficult to reflect the real unemployment situation. According to the data, the registered unemployment rate in cities and towns remained stable between 4.0% and 4.3% for a long time from 2002 to 2016, and continued to drop to 3.61% in June 2019 from 2017, which is obviously inconsistent with the economic growth trend.



  2) The survey unemployment rate has been officially announced since the beginning of 2018, but the survey sample of 85,000 urban families only accounts for about 0.03% of the urban employment in China, and the sampling rate is only half of 0.07% in the United States, and the sample rotation problem leads to insufficient representation of migrant workers. In view of the above-mentioned problems of registered unemployment rate in cities and towns, the National Bureau of Statistics officially implemented the national labor force sampling survey twice a year in 2005, established the monthly labor force sampling survey system in 31 big cities in 2009, and expanded it to 65 cities in 2013. In 2016, the monthly labor force survey covered all prefecture-level cities (prefectures and leagues) and sampled 120,000 families in China, and began to publish the unemployment rate data of urban surveys continuously in early 2018. Obviously different from the registered unemployment rate in cities and towns, the survey unemployment rate in cities and towns in China is based on the statistics of permanent residents, and adopts the unemployment standard of the International Labour Organization, that is, people aged 16 or above who have no job but have been actively looking for a job in the past three months.


  From the trend point of view, the survey unemployment rate in China and 31 big cities are weakly related to the trend of GDP, and the unemployment rate and GDP growth rate in 31 big cities with relatively long data period basically keep changing in the same direction. Judging from the urban survey unemployment rate, it has been fluctuating in the range of 4.8%-5.3% since January 2018, and it has been higher than 5% since January 2019 and 5.1% in June 2019. Because the urban survey unemployment rate is close to the natural unemployment rate of about 5%, the official believes that there is no periodic unemployment. From a year-on-year perspective, the urban survey unemployment rate basically continued to rise from -0.2 percentage points in January 2018 to 0.3 percentage points in June 2019.


  There are still three problems in China’s urban survey unemployment rate statistics: First, the sample is insufficient. Among the 120,000 households in the monthly labor force survey, there are about 85,000 households (household units) in cities and towns, accounting for only 0.03% of the urban employment in China. In the United States, the survey sample in the unemployment rate statistics is 60,000 households, accounting for about 0.07% of the non-agricultural employment in the United States. Second, the representativeness of the foreign resident population may be insufficient. In the survey, in order to avoid sample aging, the National Bureau of Statistics adopts sample rotation, that is, it withdraws from the survey after completing four surveys within two years, which means that investigators must find relatively stable families, and permanent migrants with strong mobility may be excluded. Moreover, when the employment situation is not good, some migrant workers return to the countryside, which makes the urban unemployment rate lower in data. Third, the sampling frame is aging. According to the local statistics department, the data of the sixth population census in 2010 is used as the primary sampling frame. Although it is updated every year, it is only a simple expansion in practice, and the newly-built community still cannot enter the sampling frame, which leads to the serious aging of the existing survey samples and poor sample representativeness.




  3) The recruitment rate depends on job seekers and employers voluntarily going to local public employment service agencies to register, and the data shows a long-term upward trend, with limited reference value. Multiplication ratio = job vacancy/number of job seekers. The data comes from public employment service agencies in 100 cities in Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security. Urban and rural workers who are of working age, have the ability to work and have employment requirements can apply for public employment services in the public employment service institutions of their permanent residence with relevant documents such as resident identity cards; Employers can consult with public employment service agencies and apply for employment services. Since the fourth quarter of 2010, the recruitment ratio has exceeded 1 and basically increased, and it has dropped to 1.22 in the second quarter of 2019, down by 0.05 and 0.01 percentage points respectively from the previous quarter and the same period last year. The relationship between the recruitment ratio and GDP change is weak, mainly because it relies on public employment service agencies at all levels to collect data by registration, and does not include new job-seeking channels such as campus recruitment, online recruitment and employment agency, which has narrow coverage and limited reference significance. As a reference, the US Department of Labor released JOLTS job vacancy data, which comes from the monthly survey of job vacancies and labor turnover rate, which surveys employers about the employment situation of enterprises, the number of vacant positions, recruitment and dismissal, etc. The survey sample covers about 16,000 American enterprises, covering most areas of the American economy. JOLT job vacancies in the United States have a wider coverage, which can better reflect the employment situation and positively change with the year-on-year growth rate of GDP.




  4) Judging the employment situation requires not only employment quantity indicators such as unemployment rate, but also employment quality indicators such as average working hours, salary growth rate and part-time job ratio. However, there are limited indicators to measure employment quality at present, and there are also sampling problems. Enterprises rarely lay off employees immediately at the beginning of the bad economic situation, but generally choose to reduce wages and working hours first. In this case, the unemployment rate in urban surveys will not rise, but the quality of employment has begun to deteriorate. According to the monthly labor force survey of the National Bureau of Statistics, in June 2019, the average weekly working hours of employed people nationwide were 45.7 hours, 0.6 hours lower than that of the previous month and 0.2 hours lower than that of the same period of last year. However, there is also the problem of insufficient representation of migrant workers due to insufficient samples and sampling deviation, and there are no more employment indicators for reference. In contrast, the US Department of Labor publishes monthly indicators such as average weekly working hours, average weekly salary, full-time and part-time employment, which are comprehensive and can comprehensively reflect the quality of employment.



  2 Other employment data reflect the current employment pressure.


  Considering the limitations of the aforementioned employment indicators, we try to infer the current employment situation from other official and unofficial data.


  2.1 New jobs in cities and towns decreased by 2% year-on-year in the first half of the year, and the growth rate of unemployment benefits and re-employment was not optimistic.


  In the first half of 2019, the number of newly employed people in cities and towns was only 7.47 million, down 2.0% year-on-year, and the target completion rate dropped to 67.0%, down 1.4 percentage points from the first half of last year. In 2003, a statistical system was established for new employment in cities and towns, and the number of new employees in cities and towns = the cumulative number of new employees in cities and towns during the reporting period-the number of natural attrition. The statistics of new employment in cities and towns are not restricted by household registration, and include various forms of employment with a wide caliber, but it cannot be ruled out that someone frequently changes jobs many times in a year. In July 2018, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the number of newly employed urban workers reached a stage high of 2.9%, and then the trend declined. At the beginning of 2019, the cumulative number of newly employed urban workers began to grow negatively, reaching 7.47 million in June, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%. The target completion rate was 67.0%, which was 1.4 percentage points lower than the 68.4% in January-June 2018.


  In the first quarter of 2019, the year-on-year growth rate of the number of people receiving unemployment insurance increased for five consecutive quarters. The number of unemployed people in cities and towns re-employed decreased by 9.1% from January to May 2019, and the number of people with employment difficulties decreased by 4.2%. The recipients of unemployment insurance benefits are employees of urban enterprises and institutions. In the first quarter of 2019, the number of people receiving unemployment insurance benefits was 2.27 million, up 1.8% from the previous month and the same period of last year. Among them, the growth rate of the previous month turned from negative to positive, and the year-on-year growth rate increased for five consecutive quarters. The number of unemployed people re-employed in cities and towns was 2.09 million from January to May 2019, a sharp decrease of 9.1% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate dropped sharply for two consecutive months. In September 2018, the year-on-year growth rate of people with employment difficulties reached a high of 16.2% in recent years, and then began to decline rapidly. In February 2019, the year-on-year growth rate began to turn negative. From January to May 2019, the number of people with employment difficulties was 690,000, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%.






  2.2 manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI employees’ indices are trending downward.


  The PMI employee index reflects the views of enterprises on the scale of current employees compared with the previous period. In June 2019, the manufacturing PMI employee index fell to 46.9%, the lowest since March 2009; Non-manufacturing PMI employees index fell to 48.2%. PMI employee index is one of five sub-indices of PMI, among which manufacturing PMI started to be counted in 2005, with a sample of 3,000 enterprises; Non-manufacturing PMI began to be counted in 2007, targeting 4,000 sample enterprises. 50% is the critical point of expansion and contraction, and a PMI employee index of less than 50% means that more business leaders believe that the number of production and operation personnel is lower than that of a month ago.


  Judging from the manufacturing PMI employee index, the manufacturing PMI employee index has been below 50% for 27 consecutive months since March 2017; In June 2019, it fell to 46.9%, falling for three consecutive months, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month and 2.1 percentage points from the same period last year. Among them, the PMI employee index of large, medium and small enterprises in manufacturing industry began to decline in the second half of 2018, and it was 47.0%, 45.9% and 48.3% respectively in June 2019, down 2.0, 2.4 and 1.9 percentage points respectively year-on-year. Medium-sized enterprises not only had a lower absolute level, but also had a larger decline.


  Judging from the non-manufacturing PMI employee index, the non-manufacturing PMI employee index began to remain below 50% in September 2018, and fell to 48.2% in June 2019, falling for two consecutive months, down 0.1 and 0.7 percentage points respectively from the previous month and the same period last year. Among them, the construction industry PMI employee index began to decline rapidly from 54.1% in March 2019, and fell to 50.4% in June 2019. The service industry PMI employee index continued to be below 50% after July 2014, and began to decline rapidly from 49.7% in August 2018, and fell to 47.9% in June 2019.




  Similarly, in the questionnaire survey of urban depositors of the central bank, the employment perception index and employment expectation index in the second quarter of 2019 were 44.2% and 52.3%, respectively, down 1.6 and 1.5 percentage points from the previous month. The questionnaire survey of urban depositors is a quarterly survey system established by the People’s Bank of China since 1999. Every quarter, 20,000 depositors are selected from 50 cities (large, medium and small) in China as the survey objects, and the employment feeling index and employment expectation index reflect the views of depositors on employment. From the first quarter to the second quarter of 2018, both the employment feeling index and the employment expectation index stopped rising and declined in fluctuations. In the second quarter of 2019, the employment experience index was 44.2%, down 1.6 and 0.8 percentage points respectively from the previous quarter and the same period of last year; The employment expectation index was 52.3%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month and flat year-on-year. In the second quarter of 2019, the proportion of people who chose "good situation and easy employment" in the employment experience index was 15.5%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month and flat year-on-year.




  2.3 Renmin University and Zhilian recruitment CIER index is still at a low level in the second quarter.


  The CIER index is the ratio of recruitment demand to the number of applicants on the Zhaopin recruitment website, which was 1.89 in the second quarter of 2019, although it rose slightly year-on-year, it was still at a low level. CIER index is a China employment market prosperity index jointly launched by the Employment Research Institute of Renmin University of China and Zhaopin. It is obtained by analyzing the data of Zhaopin, and it is a good quality and long-term data in the current unofficial employment statistics. CIER index = total recruitment demand/total number of applicants, with 1 as the watershed. When it is greater than 1, it indicates that the demand for labor in the job market is more than the supply of labor in the market, the competition in the job market tends to ease, and the job market is prosperous. In the second quarter of 2019, the CIER index was 1.89, up 0.21 and 0.01 respectively from the previous quarter and the same period last year. From the perspective of the chain, the increase was mainly due to seasonal factors. After entering the second quarter, the demand for employment increased significantly, and the number of people in need increased by 15.7%. After the peak of rework and job-hopping in the Spring Festival, the growth of job-seeking supply slowed down, and the number of job applicants increased by 2.7%. From a year-on-year perspective, the CIER index in the second quarter of 2019 remained at a low level since the second quarter of 2015.


  In terms of regions, the CIER indices in the eastern, central, western and northeastern regions in the second quarter of 2019 were 1.18, 1.14, 0.92 and 0.66, respectively, which all declined year-on-year, and the eastern region experienced the largest decline; In terms of cities, the CIER indices of first-tier, new-tier, second-tier and third-tier cities are 0.60, 0.94, 1.18 and 1.25, respectively, and the second-tier and third-tier cities have the largest decline; In terms of the nature of enterprises, the CIER index of private enterprises and state-owned enterprises in the second quarter of 2019 was 0.94 and 0.52, respectively, showing a downward trend year-on-year. According to the explanation of the Employment Research Institute of Renmin University of China, the average value of the subentry CIER index is not equal to the overall CIER index, mainly because there may be multiple deliveries by job seekers, and the sum of the subentry job seekers is greater than the overall number of job seekers. In the second quarter of 2019, the CIER indices of the eastern, central, western and northeastern regions were 1.18, 1.14, 0.92 and 0.66, respectively, with the highest employment boom in the eastern region and the lowest in the northeastern region; Compared with the same period of last year, it decreased by 0.28, 0.19, 0.19 and 0.07 respectively, and the employment situation in the east deteriorated the fastest. In the second quarter of 2019, the CIER indices of first-tier, new-tier, second-tier and third-tier cities were 0.60, 0.94, 1.18 and 1.25, respectively, down by 0.11, 0.03, 0.34 and 0.31 percentage points year-on-year, with the second-tier and third-tier cities having the largest decline.In the second quarter of 2019, the CIER indexes of private enterprises, joint ventures, joint-stock enterprises, state-owned enterprises, listed companies and wholly foreign-owned enterprises were 0.94, 0.82, 0.70, 0.52, 0.73 and 0.69, respectively, down by 0.04, 0.05, 0.15, 0.35, 0.29 and 0.23 respectively.




  2.4 Baidu Index job search related keywords surged in the first half of the year.


  Baidu index can reflect the active search demand of netizens, and the search volume of keywords such as "looking for a job", "recruitment", "recruitment information" and "unemployment benefits" increased by 482%, 492%, 80% and 122? %, the employment pressure is prominent, and the employment situation is more severe than in previous years. Baidu Index takes the search volume of netizens in Baidu as the data base and keywords as the statistical object, and calculates the weighted sum of the search frequency of each keyword in Baidu web search, which can reflect the active search demand of netizens. 1) "Looking for a job": The Baidu search index of "looking for a job" keywords in 2015-2018 all rose to the peak of around 40,000 after the Spring Festival, with obvious periodicity. In February, April and June, 2019, the search index of "looking for a job" reached the peak of 274,000, 314,000 and 114,000 respectively, which fluctuated violently. As of July 27, 2019, the overall daily average increased by 482% year-on-year. 2) "Recruitment": The Baidu search index of the word "recruitment" largely represents the search will of job seekers. The index has soared since May 2019, rising from less than 10,000 to the current peak of 161,000, up 492% year-on-year in the past 90 days, reflecting the increased difficulty in finding a job and the prominent employment pressure. 3) "Recruitment Information": "Recruitment Information" can be used to represent the job-seeking needs of blue-collar workers. The peak after the Spring Festival in 2019 is nearly 30 times that of 2015-2018, and the unemployment problem of blue-collar and migrant workers is stronger than in previous years. Since July,The index experienced the second small peak in the year, and the daily average in the past 90 days increased by 80% year-on-year. 4) "Conditions for receiving unemployment benefits": The search volume of "Conditions for receiving unemployment benefits" has soared since March 2019, and the daily average value of the search index from March to July is about 2.3 times that of the same period of last year, with a year-on-year increase of 122% in the past 90 days, which means that the number of unemployed people has increased and the employment situation has deteriorated. Therefore, the current employment situation is more severe than in previous years, and the number of job seekers seeking unemployment protection and switching to various recruitment and recruitment websites has increased significantly.






  The economic downturn will further put pressure on the job market, but the possibility of mass unemployment is very low.


  3.1 The current economic and financial situation is grim, and the labor market will be further under pressure.


  The current economic and financial situation is grim. In the second quarter of 2019, the GDP growth rate dropped to a new low of 6.2%, down 0.2 percentage points from the first quarter. Moreover, the impact of the trade war escalated again in May and the intensive introduction of real estate financing tightening policies has not yet appeared. Recently, leading economic indicators have declined, such as real estate sales, land purchase and funding sources, PMI orders and PMI export orders. Moreover, the economic and financial structure is deteriorating. For example, the proportion of medium and long-term loans of enterprises has declined, while the proportion of short-term loans and short-term financing has increased; PPI goes down, and corporate profits decline. In the second quarter of 2019, the real growth rate of GDP was 6.2%. After a short period of stabilization in the first quarter, it was 0.2 percentage points lower than that in the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year, the lowest point since the quarterly accounting of GDP was implemented in 1992, and it will go down again. The main reasons for the economic downturn are: the short-term inventory recovery is suppressed by the second half of the financial leverage cycle, the export effect of Sino-US trade friction appears, and the real estate investment inflection point appears due to the continuous tightening of real estate regulation. Although the issuance of special bonds has made great efforts, the land revenue has declined, and it is expected that the rebound of infrastructure will be limited, making it difficult to hedge the downward trend of the economy. From the data in June, although economic indicators such as consumption and investment have stabilized, they are still in a downturn, and leading indicators have declined. Among them, the PMI new order index was 49.6% in June, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; Real estate sales in June was -2.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points from the previous month, but it was still negative.And recently, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have comprehensively tightened major financing channels such as bank loans, trusts and overseas debts, and the real estate financing situation in the second half of the year is grim; The medium-and long-term loans of newly-increased enterprises were 375.3 billion yuan in June, a year-on-year decrease of 24.8 billion yuan. The proportion of medium-and long-term loans of enterprises fluctuated at a low level, the loan structure deteriorated, and financial institutions’ distrust of enterprises increased. (See the report of Evergrande Research Institute in July, Born in Worry-Macro Outlook in 2019, Fully Estimating the Severity of the Current Economic and Financial Situation-Fully Interpreting the Economic and Financial Data in June).




  Although the continuous reduction of labor supply will alleviate the employment pressure, the economic slowdown will lead to a further slowdown in labor demand and further pressure on the job market, but it is unlikely that large-scale unemployment will occur. The working-age population aged 15-59 in China reached a peak of 940 million in 2011, and decreased by 4.29 million annually from 2012 to 2018, with a total decrease of 30.06 million. The labor participation rate (economically active population/population aged 15 -64) gradually decreased to 76.2% in 2018, and the scale of labor supply continued to decrease. The economically active population in China reached a peak of 806.94 million in 2016, and the total number of employed people reached a peak of 776.4 million in 2017. From the perspective of the relationship between economic growth and employment, due to the larger economy and the transformation of economic structure to service industry, although the number of new urban jobs created by unit GDP growth has increased significantly, the downward economic growth has led to a significant slowdown in the growth rate of urban employees and non-agricultural employees. In 2011-2018, the number of newly created urban jobs increased from 1.29 million to 2.06 million, and the number of newly created urban jobs increased from 1.29 million to 1.49 million, which was basically stable in the last three years. The number of newly created non-agricultural jobs decreased from 1.74 million to 960,000, the growth rate of urban employees decreased from 3.54% to 2.25%, and the growth rate of non-agricultural employees decreased from 3.43% to 1.11%. However, as long as the policy is properly handled and no major systemic risks occur, the downside of subsequent economic growth is relatively limited.The possibility of mass unemployment is very low.




  3.2 The employment pressure of some industries and key groups will be further highlighted.


  In terms of industries, the employment in manufacturing industry is mainly affected by the downturn in exports and the decline in profits of PPI companies. The construction industry is affected by the limited space for infrastructure recovery and the decline in real estate investment, and the follow-up is not optimistic; According to Zhaopin’s recruitment data, the recruitment demand in the financial industry decreased by 39.7% and 37.0% in the first and second quarters respectively, and the Internet/e-commerce decreased by 22.5% and 13.6% respectively. 1) manufacturing industry. In 2017, the employment of manufacturing industry accounted for 26.3% of the employment of urban non-private units. Affected by the global economic downturn and Sino-US economic and trade frictions, exports continued to be sluggish. In the first half of 2019, exports were 0.1% year-on-year, down 9.8 percentage points from 2018; Among them, exports to the United States were -8.1% year-on-year, down 19.4 percentage points from the whole year of 2018. According to estimates, a 25% tariff on $250 billion of goods will affect the employment of 1.99 million people; If a 25% tariff is imposed on $550 billion of goods, it will affect the employment of 4.2 million people, especially the employment of manufacturing industries such as electromechanical and machinery, and the industrial chain is shifting from China to Viet Nam and other places. From the perspective of corporate profits, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by -2.4% year-on-year from January to June 2019, down by 19.6 percentage points compared with the same period of last year. The decline in corporate profits will suppress manufacturing employment. 2) Construction industry. In 2017, the employment in construction industry accounted for 15.0% and 18.9% of the employees in urban non-private units and the number of migrant workers respectively.From January to June, the investment in infrastructure (including water, electricity and gas) was 3.0% year-on-year, and it is expected to continue to rise with the support of the new regulations on special debts; However, the land revenue has fallen sharply, tax reduction and fee reduction have made local governments’ finances tight, and the continuation of local hidden debts has been strictly controlled, and there is limited room for infrastructure investment to rebound. From January to June, the growth rate of investment in real estate development dropped to 10.8%. Weak sales, negative growth in land purchase, and constrained financing of housing enterprises mean that real estate investment will continue to decline slowly in the future. 3) Financial industry and IT industry. According to Zhaopin’s recruitment data, the recruitment demand in the financial industry decreased by 39.7% and 37.0% respectively in the first and second quarters of 2019, especially in the situation of strict financial supervision. Internet/e-commerce recruitment demand decreased by 22.5% and 13.6% respectively. In addition, the demand for real estate/construction/building materials/engineering and computer software in the second quarter decreased by 15.9% and 13.9% respectively.






  From the perspective of key groups, the scale of college graduates continues to hit a new high, the growth rate of migrant workers slows down but their age is aging, the scale of "4050" personnel rises, and the employment pressure is greater. In terms of college graduates, the number of college graduates (including graduate students) climbed from 880,000 in 1999 to 8.34 million in 2019. Considering that the enrollment of ordinary colleges and universities (including graduate students) increased from 8.03 million to 8.77 million in 2015-2018, the scale of college graduates will continue to reach a new high in the next few years. Because some students’ skills are difficult to adapt to the employment requirements, the pressure of "difficult employment" continues to rise. In terms of migrant workers, the scale of migrant workers increased from 240 million in 2010 to 290 million in 2018, and the growth rate slowed down from 5.4% to 0.6%. However, migrant workers with junior high school education or below are more aging and face greater unemployment risks in the economic downturn. From 2008 to 2018, the proportion of migrant workers over 50 years old rose from 11.4% to 22.4%, and the proportion of 41-50 years old rose from 18.6% to 25.5%. In terms of "4050" personnel, the scale and proportion of "4050" personnel have basically continued to rise, and they are old, with low academic qualifications and single skills, and are prone to long-term unemployment. Among them, from 2003 to 2018, the proportion of women aged 40-59 to women aged 15-59 increased from 38.0% to 47.5%, and the proportion of men aged 50-59 to men aged 15-59 increased from 16.4% to 22.3%.Together, the proportion of the working-age population aged 15-59 rose from 27.1% to 34.6%.




  3.3 Policy recommendations


  Generally speaking, in the face of the complicated and severe internal and external situations such as Sino-US trade friction, high macro leverage ratio, increasing downward pressure on the economy, and the critical period of reform and opening up, it is necessary to strengthen countercyclical adjustment through fiscal and monetary policies, and also to maintain strategic strength to prevent flooding. The most important thing is to unswervingly promote reform and opening up, further liberalize market access, restore entrepreneurial confidence, stimulate new growth points such as new economy and service industry, and promote a virtuous circle of economic growth and employment increase. Specifically:


  First, further vigorously optimize the business environment, promote the implementation of tax reduction and fee reduction, and smooth financing channels, so as to give full play to the role of enterprises as the main body of stable employment, especially private and small and medium-sized enterprises. Private and small and medium-sized enterprises are the main body to attract employment, but the business environment has deteriorated in the past few years, including being injured to some extent in the past deleveraging, capacity reduction and environmental protection storms, and the continued downturn in exports has increased their survival pressure, coupled with poor financing channels and liquidity stratification. Although the government has issued a number of policies to bail out private and small and medium-sized enterprises, the effect of the policies remains to be seen. Therefore, the proactive fiscal policy should continue to promote the implementation of tax reduction and fee reduction, and the more profitable enterprises are, the more they should "release water to raise fish". Monetary policy should continue to unblock the transmission mechanism from wide money to wide credit, increase the structural reform of financial supply side, and intensify efforts to solve the problems of financing difficulties and high financing for private and small and medium-sized enterprises. In addition, we should continue to vigorously promote innovation and entrepreneurship, increase entrepreneurial support, and promote employment through entrepreneurship.


  Second, increase the opening up of the service industry, especially the financial, educational, medical and telecommunications industries; Accelerate the construction of metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations with big cities as the core, increase the density and frequency of economically active population to promote agglomeration, and give full play to the role of service industry in absorbing employment. In 2012, the number of employees in the secondary industry in China reached its peak, and then it completely relied on the tertiary industry to absorb the labor transferred from the primary industry and the secondary industry. In 2018, the proportion of employment in the primary, secondary and tertiary industries in China was 26.1%, 27.6% and 46.3% respectively. The proportion of employment in the tertiary industry was far from the average level of 74.5% in high-income economies, and there was a broad space for employment. On the one hand, it is necessary to increase the opening-up of the service industry at home and abroad, and vigorously deregulate it. At present, China’s manufacturing industry is basically open to the outside world, while its service industry is relatively low. There is still a lot of room for opening to the outside world in the fields of automobile, finance, high-end clothing, energy, architectural design, medical care, education, telecommunications, internet, press and publication, radio and television, express delivery and so on. On the other hand, the development of most service industries needs agglomeration more than industrial development. We should accelerate the construction of metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations with big cities as the core, promote the further agglomeration of industries and population, and form an industrial division system in which core cities develop high-end service industries, small and medium-sized cities develop manufacturing industries and some service industries.


  The third is to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, not only to prevent excessive financial bubble, but also to prevent active puncture from causing major financial risks. Recently, a series of tightening policies for real estate financing have been introduced intensively, from overseas debt, trust and credit to comprehensive tightening. At present, on the one hand, it is necessary to prevent money from releasing water to stimulate the real estate bubble, on the other hand, it is also necessary to prevent active puncture from causing major financial risks. If it is punctured actively, the Sino-US trade friction will not continue. Ten crises and nine real estates, the housing market value in China is about 300 trillion yuan, the stock market is about 60 trillion yuan, and the bond market is about 70 trillion yuan. Old-fashioned seeks the country to exchange time for space, stabilize land prices and stabilize expectations, and use the time window to promote housing system reform and long-term mechanism. At the same time, normal business should be allowed to develop, and irregular business should be carried out step by step, with the front door open and the back door closed, rather than across the board. At present, it is especially necessary to support M&A financing. The merger of unfavorable assets or problematic projects between enterprises is the main force to resolve bad and financial risks, and it is impossible to rely on the state to resolve them.


  Fourth, solidly promote the large-scale enrollment expansion of higher vocational colleges, implement large-scale vocational skills training, and promote the transformation of labor skills to meet the needs of industrial transformation and upgrading. According to the requirements of the Government Work Report of 2019 on the large-scale enrollment expansion of 1 million people in higher vocational colleges, in May, the Ministry of Education and other six departments jointly issued the Implementation Plan for the Special Work of Enrollment Expansion in Higher Vocational Colleges, emphasizing that "developing higher vocational education is a strategic move to alleviate the current employment pressure and solve the shortage of highly skilled talents", which is mainly aimed at fresh high school graduates, secondary vocational graduates, retired soldiers, laid-off workers and migrant workers. In the same month, the General Office of the State Council issued the Action Plan for Vocational Skills Upgrading (2019-2021), which further emphasized that "vocational skills training is a key measure to maintain employment stability and alleviate structural employment contradictions", and required that more than 50 million subsidized vocational skills trainings be conducted in three years, including more than 15 million in 2019.



This article first appeared on WeChat WeChat official account: Zeping Macro. The content of the article belongs to the author’s personal opinion and does not represent Hexun.com’s position. Investors should operate accordingly, at their own risk.

(Editor: Wang Zhiqiang HF013)