Special Feature： Finding the Way in the Changing Situation —— Review of the International Situation in 2019
Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, December 19th Special feature: Finding the way in the changing situation — — Review of the International Situation in 2019
Xinhua News Agency reporter Ban Wei
In 2019, the second decade of the 21st century is coming to an end.
This year, the world was full of chaos and challenges: the game between big countries intensified, the governance deficit increased, and the world economy continued to slump. The characteristics of the accelerated evolution of the "great change in a hundred years" are more obvious: the dispute between multilateralism and unilateralism is more acute, protectionism and populism are surging against the current, and power politics and bullying are rampant everywhere.
This year, globalization and multipolarization are still moving forward with heavy burdens in twists and turns, and a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation is emerging. More and more countries are seriously thinking about what choices should be made in the contest between cooperation and confrontation, multilateralism and unilateralism, and openness and closure.
The Sound and the Fury
The change of the "2019 edition" shows that the game between big countries has obviously warmed up.
Near the end of the year, NATO held a "70th birthday party". However, American leaders repeatedly complained that "NATO is out of date", demanded NATO member countries to substantially increase their military spending, and called the EU an "enemy" of trade. France said that NATO experienced "brain death" and so on, which made the party "play inharmony", and the wrestling of all parties increased. NATO tasted the birthday cake with "trust deficit".
The German newspaper Le Monde said: "NATO is now threatened from within." Gusev, director of the Russian Institute of Strategic Planning and Forecasting, said: "The complicated relationship between the United States and NATO allies complicates the current international relations."
This is the latest epitome of the widening rift in traditional relations in western countries. In one year, the G-7 held a summit, but only issued a "one-page statement" that lacked substance, highlighting internal differences and weak influence. As the world’s largest economy, the United States has repeatedly opened new fronts in the global trade war. After announcing the imposition of tariffs on EU aviation and agricultural goods, it plans to retaliate against French digital tax … …
During the past year, Russia hoped that Russia-US relations would return to normal, but frankly this situation has not yet appeared, and relations with the United States are "regressing and getting worse and worse". Although Russia and Europe have released in good faith from time to time, improving relations is facing challenges. Japan’s Diplomatic magazine said that "cold peace" seems to be becoming the new normal of bilateral relations.
The change of the "2019 edition" shows that anxiety, tearing and chaos are staged in many parts of the world, and the uncertainty is further increased.
Political struggles in Latin American countries have intensified, and governance problems have become prominent; The confrontation between Iran and the West and the Syrian conflict are intertwined, which intensifies the turmoil in the Middle East and presents a peace deficit. Britain’s "Brexit" has been delayed for a long time, revealing social tears and institutional difficulties; The United States continues to "retreat from the group" and tries to make the United States "great again" through unilateralism and protectionism, which has impacted the international order.
The change of the "2019 edition" is also manifested in the continued downturn of the world economy. Georgieva, the new managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said that trade disputes, Britain’s "Brexit" and the uncertainties brought about by geopolitical tensions are inhibiting the global economic growth potential. IMF predicts that the global economic growth this year will be the lowest since the international financial crisis in 2008.
The sunshine behind the dark clouds
In the changing world, people can still touch the development force in the deep dive. The light coming out of the clouds still indicates the general trend of global development.
In the face of changes, "everyone is also looking for new alternatives and ways out." Zheng Yongnian, a professor at the Institute of East Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore, pointed out that it is a general trend for more countries to jointly promote multilateralism while some western powers are pursuing economic nationalism and unilateralism.
This year, in the face of counter-current, globalization is making efforts to take new steps. On November 4th, the Third Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) leaders’ meeting issued a joint statement, announcing that the 15 member countries had concluded all text negotiations and virtually all market access negotiations. The publication of the joint statement marks a major breakthrough in the construction of the East Asia Free Trade Area with the largest population, the largest membership structure and the greatest development potential in the world, highlighting that multilateralism and free trade are still the mainstream in the world.
Yu Jie, a senior researcher at the Royal Institute of International Affairs, believes that the breakthrough in RCEP negotiations plays an exemplary role in solving the development problem of economic globalization and sets an example for developing countries to seek the right to speak in global governance.
Earlier, the construction of a free trade area on the African continent was officially launched, and the "marathon" negotiations between MERCOSUR and the EU Free Trade Agreement finally came to fruition. Today, with the increasing downside risks of the world economy, more and more countries realize the importance of maintaining free trade and a rules-based multilateral trading system for hedging risks and seeking growth.
This year, the world saw the trend of the continuous development of multipolarization. In the great changes, emerging markets and developing countries, represented by BRICS countries, are constantly rising, which has injected strong impetus into the reform of the global economic governance system and effectively promoted the process of world multipolarization.
This year, the world saw that a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation was emerging. The limit of growth has always been a haze lingering over the development of human society. Nowadays, people are increasingly seeing the bright future of innovation-driven solution to the development difficulties.
In the past year, the world began to enter the stage of 5G commercial deployment, and the transformation of old and new kinetic energy accelerated; AI intelligence in all fields has provided a broad blue ocean for economic development; New breakthroughs have been made in quantum computing, and its prospects are limitless. The new scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation have provided more opportunities for countries to achieve leap-forward development, and also made it an inevitable logic for countries to increasingly blend interests, share common destiny and win-win cooperation.
人类群星闪耀时
回望2019年的国际风云，中国理念、中国方案、中国贡献，作为顺应和推动全球发展大势的重要力量，在乱局中引领方向。
中国主张和担当为多边主义、多极化和完善全球治理注入强大正能量，推动构建新型国际关系。
一年间，国家主席习近平7次出访，主持4次主场外交。元首外交维护世界和平，促进共同发展，捍卫多边主义。从二十国集团领导人峰会到中法全球治理论坛，从“一带一路”国际合作高峰论坛到金砖峰会，中国维护多边主义、加强全球治理、推动世界多极化主张引发广泛共鸣。国际上的事应该由大家商量着办，不能由一国或者少数几个国家说了算，成为越来越多国家的共识和心声。
谈及中国在当今世界格局中的作用和地位，法国前总理拉法兰说，中国扮演着非常重要的角色，是世界经济增长的引擎。中国参与构建新型多边主义，助推亚洲以及非洲在国际体系中的地位提升。
中国以实际行动，为建设开放型世界经济作出表率。
第二届中国国际进口博览会在6天里，累计意向成交711.3亿美元。“越办越好”的进博会，交易的是商品和服务，交流的是文化和理念，种下的是开放、合作、共赢的种子。
布鲁金斯学会约翰·桑顿中国中心主任李成认为，不论是“一带一路”建设，还是第二届中国国际进口博览会，中国都更多体现出包容性增长理念，强调共同发展、共享经济，这表明中国并不是一花独放，而是愿与世界共同发展。
中国倡导的构建人类命运共同体理念，为追寻人类文明的群星闪耀指明方向。
“这是最好的时代，这是最坏的时代。”在一首今年风靡网上的歌曲中，一名中国草根歌手借用英国作家狄更斯的名句，唱出人们对当今矛盾世界的感悟。
就世界如何应对风险与挑战、寻求平等与共赢、消除傲慢与偏见，中国给出答案：既需要经济科技力量，也需要文化文明力量。在构建人类命运共同体的目标引领下，倡导多元文明共生并进，用文明对话促进沟通与理解，将让人类前进的道路越走越宽广。
“当前，世界多极化、经济全球化、文化多样化、社会信息化深入发展，人类社会充满希望。”习近平主席今年5月在亚洲文明对话大会开幕式上的这番话，针对充满不确定性的当今世界，发出提振信心的强音。（参与记者：栾海、张骁、王丽丽、桂涛、徐永春、韩茜、刘品然）